Alright friends, here's the scoop on the draft lottery.
On Tuesday April 15, 2014 we will find out exactly where we are going to be drafting in this year's NHL Entry Draft. The rules for the draft lottery are different from the previous CBA, so allow me to explain how the new system works.
Each non-playoff team is now able to acquire the 1st overall pick in the lottery. In the previous CBA, a team could only move up 4 spots regardless of where their ball was selected. The new system would would have been amazing for the 2011 New Jersey Devils who actually won that year's lottery, but were only able to move up to the #4 pick from #8. This allowed for Edmonton to select Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, meanwhile the Devils wound up with Adam Larsson.
Additionally, no team can be dropped by more than 1 slot in the draft because the only adjustments to the lottery would be the #1 pick. In example, if Buffalo is slotted as the favorite to win the lottery and any other team wins the lottery, the lowest Buffalo can slide is to #2.
Brass Tacks: The Odds
The odds of winning the right to select the first overall pick are as follows:
30th place: 25.0% Buffalo for sure with 51 pts
29th place: 18.8% Edmonton (65) or Florida (64)
28th place: 14.2% See Above
27th place: 10.7% New York Islanders (77) or Calgary (77)
26th place: 8.1% See Above
25th place: 6.2% VANCOUVER
24th place: 4.7% Carolina
23th place: 3.6% Toronto
22th place: 2.7% Winnipeg
21th place: 2.1%New Jersey/Phoenix/Nashville/Ottawa
20th place: 1.5% See Above
19th place: 1.1% See Above
18th place: 0.8% See Above
17th place: 0.5% Washington
So You're Saying There's A Chance?
Currently Vancouver is in the 23rd spot, which gives us a 3.6% chance. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, we could end up increasing our odds to 8.1% if we lose all of our remaining games and everyone else below us wins out. Conversely, if we decide to win all of the remaining games, we could decrease our odds to 0.5% provided everyone above us loses outright. Neither case is likely, so let's say our odds are between 2.1% & 6.2%.
Honestly, the most likely result is that we end up slotted between #6 & #10. The players in that range are pretty solid this year and who knows, maybe one of the top 4 guys falls all the way to us... Crazy stuff happens on draft day!