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Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #18 Canucks vs. Sharks

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A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 4-2 vicotry over the Sharks.

The Sharks were Push-overs!
The Sharks were Push-overs!
Thearon W. Henderson

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

1

5

3

5

3

0

0

0

0

2

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

3

0

4

0

3

0

0

0

1

OVR

8

9

7

7

1

1

0

1

  • Good News: It was another even game (in SCD) on the road versus a division rival.
  • The Canucks gave up a below average number of chances (5 on 5).
  • The Canucks held the Sharks to 5 less chances then their average of 12/gm. (at ES).
  • Bad News: The Canucks did not create enough high quality scoring chances.
  • The Canucks power play also failed to create any scoring chances.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 15:33 Richardson off turnover, goal 8 31 44 61 81 83 1 2 3 9 15 49 5v5
    Home 1 12:04 Pavelski from Kennedy on 3on2, miss 8 31 44 61 81 83 1 5 9 15 23 49 5v5
    Away 1 11:22 Bieksa backhand from D. Sedin, save 9 12 31 39 44 61 1 3 17 18 22 33 5v5
    Away 1 10:36 Santorelli rebound from Higgins, goal 5 19 31 48 57 61 1 2 8 14 20 25 5v5
    Home 1 9:45 Hertl deflection from Demers, miss 5 7 19 31 48 57 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
    Home 1 9:16 Brown from Sheppard on 2on0, goal 7 10 15 18 22 31 1 3 9 15 18 49 5v5
    Away 1 3:30 Kesler wraparound from H. Sedin, save 7 12 15 22 31 81 1 2 3 13 21 49 5v5
    Away 1 1:06 Higgins off turnover, goal 5 19 27 31 48 57 1 2 8 14 20 25 5v5
    Home 2 15:52 Marleau from Braun, save 12 31 39 44 61 81 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 2 14:39 Kassian deflection from Bieksa, goal 7 8 9 22 31 83 1 3 9 15 18 49 5v5
    Away 2 12:16 H. Sedin rebound from Bieksa, save 12 32 39 44 61 81 1 3 17 18 22 33 5v5
    Away 2 5:42 H. Sedin rebound from Hamhuis, miss (5v4 PP) 8 12 32 44 61 1 2 14 17 22 33 4v5
    Home 2 4:45 Desjardins from Vlasic on 2on1, save (4v5 SH) 10 19 32 44 61 1 5 9 20 23 25 4v5
    Home 3 16:02 Thorton - pp , rebound 8 12 19 22 32 39 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
    Home 3 12:36 Wingels from Pavelski, save 8 32 44 48 57 61 1 3 9 15 18 49 5v5
    Home 3 11:46 Couture from Havlat, save 7 9 22 32 39 83 1 5 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Home 3 1:22 Marleau - 5 on 4, Puck battle loss D. sedin 8 12 19 22 39 1 2 8 22 33 4v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 7 7 1 1 0 1
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 17:30 4 1 03:43 1 0 03:17 0 1
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 16:22 5 2 01:24 0 0 02:55 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 15:01 0 4 02:44 0 1 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 16:25 2 1 00:06 0 0 03:17 0 1
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 11:51 2 3 01:32 0 1 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 04:40 1 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 12:44 2 1 03:19 1 0 00:34 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 13:16 2 3 00:06 0 0 01:20 0 1
    17 KESLER, RYAN 17:15 2 2 03:40 1 0 01:41 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 10:30 3 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 14:35 2 1 02:23 0 1 01:55 0 0
    21 DALPE, ZAC 03:46 1 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 17:00 2 3 03:31 1 0 02:15 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 19:48 0 4 01:32 0 1 02:55 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 13:52 2 1 02:04 0 1 02:20 0 1
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 17:35 2 3 03:50 1 0 02:19 0 0
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 10:37 3 3 00:06 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • No Canuck forward stood out in SCD.
  • Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis were the best D-men, they had a combined 9-3 SCD at ES.
  • Alexander Edler returned to his norm - He was 0- 4 in SCD at (ES) and is now -33 for the year.
  • Again, I ask: 'How low can Eddie go?'
  • No Shark player stood out in SCD.
  • This was a great credit to the Canucks' effort and defensive play.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Dan Hamhuis (A 61% Pos. F. Close).

    2. Mike Santorelli (He had some 'heavy lifting' - 36% O/D zone starts).

    3. Coach Torterella - (He has complete buy-in from all players. ++ Grit ++Puck Battles).

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    SAN JOSE


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    13

    26

    50%


    16

    28

    57%

    2

    13

    28

    48%


    14

    26

    54%

    3

    4

    15

    27%


    10

    17

    59%









    Total

    39

    89

    44%


    40

    71

    56%

    • OZE% shows that the Sharks were the stronger team in transition.
    • This stats clearly shows why the Sharks are so dominant and so dangerous.
    • In a game they 'lost badly'; they still clearly were better at OZE %.
    • The Canucks did not 'shut-down' the Sharks as much as they neutralized their attack.
    • The Canucks positional play in their own zone was extremely effective.
    • Coach Torts' has changed the teams' defending system from man to man to zone def.
    • The Canucks clearly sat back once they had the two goal lead.
    • The Canucks had 18 successful 'carry ins', but only 3 in the final period.
    • The Canucks had 16 successful 'dump ins' (out of 46) for an ave. rate of (35%).
    • San Jose had a high total of 27 'carry ins'.
    • As a result, the Sharks should have been the more dangerous team.
    • And, the Sharks 'should' have created more scoring chances.
    • The Sharks had 13 'dump in' wins out of 31 (42%).

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    PHOENIX


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    15

    35

    43%


    17

    33

    52%

    2

    8

    29

    28%


    11

    25

    44%

    3

    8

    22

    36%


    10

    17

    59%









    Total

    38

    86

    44%


    38

    75

    51%

    • The Sharks were also the better team in terms of DZE%
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck had average success.
    • DZE% shows that the Canucks really sat back in the third period.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    SAN JOSE


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    2.8 = 1.9 (9) {0}

    2.5 = 1.3 (1) {.2}

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - 2.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.
    • The Sharks Goaltenders' had an {EGA} of ~ 2.6.
    • Luongo's rating was 0.
    • The Sharks Goaltenders' rating was -1.4.
    • Vancouver won the goaltending battle by nearly a goal and a half.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • Both teams were sloppy with the puck.
    • Vancouver had another  high total of 24 turnovers.
    • The Sharks had an above average total of 17 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Canucks' play in their own zone was the key difference.
    • The Canucks limited the Sharks' scoring chances, even though the team had many turnovers and the Sharks were better in neutral zone stats.
    • Very poor goaltending by Antti Nemi was the other reason the Canucks won the game.
    • The Canucks continued to create below average scoring chances against better teams.
    • The Sharks were forced to flop and embellish trying desperately to get on the power play!
    • It was a great win for the Canucks, However, they won't usually get such poor goaltending.
    • The Sharks are currently ~+85 in scoring chance differential (~5/ gm.).
    • The Canucks are ~+10 in scoring chance differential (~.5/gm.).
    • There is still room for the Canucks to improve and close the gap between the two teams.

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-07-canucks-sharks_medium

    Feel free to comment below!