Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #16 Canucks vs. Leafs

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period	Totals		EV		PP		SH
	VAN	TOR	VAN	TOR	VAN	TOR	VAN	TOR
1	10	6	8	5	2	1	0	0
2	9	5	6	2	3	3	0	0
3	9	4	6	3	2	1	1	0
OVR	28	15	20	10	7	5	1	0

• Good News: The Canucks offfense was terrific! The highest total this season!
• Vancouver started very strongly with a 7-0 SCD.
• The team also won the chance battle for each period decisively.
• Can the Canucks play eastern teams more often?!

Bad News: The Canucks power play failed to capitalize fully on numerous opportunities.

Overall, the Canucks surrendered an above average number of chances.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team	Period	Time	Note	Home						Away						State
Home	1	18:38	Higgins - Takeaway Higgins	1	2	8	14	20	25	15	21	34	43	51	81	5v5
Home	1	16:11	Santorelli - rush, pass Burrows	1	3	14	18	20	25	4	11	21	34	41	44	5v5
Home	1	16:07	Higgins - pass and takeaway Santorelli	1	3	14	18	20	25	4	11	21	34	41	44	5v5
Home	1	16:05	Burrwows - rebound	1	3	14	18	20	25	4	11	21	34	41	44	5v5
Home	1	15:45	Higgins- pass Burrows	1	3	14	18	20	25	4	11	21	34	41	44	5v5
Home	1	14:11	D. Sedin - rush pass H. Sedin	1	2	8	17	22	33	3	21	34	43	51	81	5v5
Home	1	13:58	H. Sedin (Goal) - pass Kesler	1	2	5	17	22	33	3	4	11	34	63		5v4
Away	1	11:44	Kessel - rush	1	2	8	14	20	25	4	21	34	43	44	81	5v5
Home	1	10:53	H. Sedin - rush pass D. Sedin	1	3	17	18	22	33	3	11	19	34	36	41	5v5
Away	1	9:11	Kessel - pass JVR	1	5	14	20	23	25	15	21	34	43	51	81	5v5
Away	1	7:11	deflection, ms	1	2	8	14	25		3	4	12	19	34	81	4v5
Away	1	6:35	Rush - Ranger	1	5	17	22	23	33	4	11	15	34	71	81	5v5
Away	1	5:32	Kadri - rush , ms	1	3	14	18	20	25	11	15	34	36	43	81	5v5
Away	1	5:08	Raymond rebound	1	5	9	15	23	29	15	23	28	34	38	51	5v5
Home	1	4:07	Santorelli - rush passs Higgins	1	3	9	18	20	25	4	19	21	34	43	44	5v5
Home	1	0:45	Kesler rush post	1	2	3	17	22	33	4	21	34	51	63		5v4
Home	2	17:53	Kassian - pass Richarson	1	2	8	14	20	25	15	21	34	43	51	81	5v5
Home	2	17:21	Higgins - pass Santorelli	1	2	8	14	20	25	15	21	34	43	51	81	5v5
Home	2	14:55	Higgins - (Goal) rush, pass Burrows	1	3	6	13	18	29	15	23	28	34	38	51	5v5
Home	2	14:03	Higgins - ns , off pinch Tanev	1	2	8	14	20	25	4	21	34	43	44	81	5v5
Home	2	14:00	Burrows Ms Rebound	1	2	8	14	20	25	4	21	34	43	44	81	5v5
Away	2	8:30	deflection #11 - ms	1	3	9	15	18	49	11	12	34	36	51	71	5v5
Away	2	6:46	Lupul - pp	1	3	5	15	25		12	19	34	44	51	71	4v5
Away	2	6:22	Lupul - pp	1	3	5	22	33		12	19	34	44	51	71	4v5
Away	2	5:41	Kessel - pass JVR	1	2	8	18	20	33	3	4	21	34	43	81	5v5
Home	2	4:20	D. Sedin - ms - pass H. Sedin	1	5	17	22	23	33	3	11	34	36			5v3
Home	2	4:05	Garrison - screen pp	1	5	17	22	23	33	3	11	34	36			5v3
Home	2	3:02	Edler - pp	1	2	3	14	20	25	11	15	34	51			5v3
Home	2	2:35	Burrows - pass Santorelli	1	2	3	14	20	25	11	15	34	38	51	81	5v5
Away	2	1:22	JVR - pp	1	2	8	15	25		3	4	21	34	43	81	4v5
Home	3	18:40	Burrows - pass D. Sedin	1	3	14	18	22	33	11	15	19	34	36	71	5v5
Away	3	14:56	Kessel -	1	3	17	22	23	33	4	15	34	43	71	81	5v5
Home	3	13:26	D. Sedin - pp	1	2	5	17	22	33	3	11	34	36	41		5v4
Home	3	9:59	Kesler - pp	1	3	17	22	23	33	3	11	34	36	41		5v4
Home	3	6:15	D. Sedin - pass Kesler	1	2	3	17	22	33	3	11	21	34	36	41	5v5
Home	3	5:41	Welsch - pass Archibauld	1	2	8	13	15	49	19	34	43	44	51	81	5v5
Home	3	5:35	Hamhuis -(Goal) rebound	1	2	8	13	15	49	19	34	43	44	51	81	5v5
Away	3	5:05	#11 - rush - beat Weber	1	3	6	13	18	29	11	15	28	34	38	51	5v5
Home	3	3:46	Burrows	1	2	8	14	25	49	4	19	34	43	44	81	5v5
Home	3	3:26	Richardson - rebound	1	5	13	15	23	49	3	12	21	34	36	41	5v5
Away	3	3:11	Raymond - rush	1	5	13	15	23	49	3	12	21	34	36	41	5v5
Away	3	1:35	Raymond - ms -rush	1	2	8	14	25		3	4	19	21	34	81	4v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
1	LUONGO, ROBERTO		20	10		7	0		1	5
2	HAMHUIS, DAN	11:59	11	2	07:06	4	0	04:05	1	3
3	BIEKSA, KEVIN	15:52	10	4	05:10	3	0	03:47	0	2
5	GARRISON, JASON	10:59	1	4	08:50	4	0	01:35	0	2
6	WEBER, YANNICK	02:46	1	1	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
8	TANEV, CHRISTOPHER	11:09	9	2	00:07	0	0	04:18	1	3
9	KASSIAN, ZACK	09:18	1	2	00:15	0	0	00:00	0	0
13	WELSH, JEREMY	02:57	4	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
14	BURROWS, ALEXANDRE	11:35	12	3	03:28	1	0	02:09	1	2
15	RICHARDSON, BRAD	09:39	3	3	00:03	0	0	02:34	0	2
17	KESLER, RYAN	12:01	3	2	10:25	6	0	02:42	0	0
18	STANTON, RYAN	11:42	8	4	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
20	HIGGINS, CHRIS	13:27	11	4	03:57	1	0	02:35	0	0
22	SEDIN, DANIEL	12:07	4	2	10:05	6	0	00:58	0	1
23	EDLER, ALEXANDER	15:19	1	5	06:53	3	0	01:59	0	0
25	SANTORELLI, MIKE	12:24	12	3	04:00	1	0	04:11	1	4
29	SESTITO, TOM	02:26	1	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
33	SEDIN, HENRIK	12:37	4	3	10:05	6	0	00:35	0	1
49	ARCHIBALD, DARREN	09:53	4	2	00:06	0	0	00:00	0	0

The Canucks'  Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were amazing!

This second line, were an outstanding 35-8 (combined) in SCD at ES.

Christopher Tanev, Dan Hamhuis, and Kevin Bieksa also dominated the chance battle!

The three defencemen were a combined 30-8 SCD at even strength (ES).

On a negative note, somehow Alexander Edler managed  to lose the chance battle again.

He was 1-5 in SCD at ES despite registering 12 shots on goal.

Edler has reached -30 in chance differential so far this season. How low can he go?

Jason Garrison's SCD is also plummeting now playing most of the time with Edler.

Last post a fan suggested 'turnstile' as a tag for Eddie? 'Anchor' also fits!

I still wonder if Garrison suffered an injury back in the Red Wings game.

Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and James Van Reimsdyk were a nightmare defensively.

The three Leafs stars were a shocking 10-29 in SCD (combined) at ES.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Chris Higgins

2. Alexander Burrows

3. Roberto Luongo (+3 EPA)

Honorable mention : James Riemer (also + 2..7 EPA)

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.

	VANCOUVER				TORONTO
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	21	24	88%		12	28	43%
2	7	15	46%		9	18	50%
3	9	14	64%		6	13	46%
Total	37	53	70%		27	59	47%

• The Canucks obliterated the Leafs in the first period.
  
• It is incredible to see just how bad the Leafs defense is!
• It is disheartening to know the Leafs will likely make the playoffs in the weak east.
• The OZE% matches the scoring chances and the eye test or flow of the game.
• The Canucks had 25 successful 'carry ins', and 14 in the 1st period.
• The Canucks had 12 successful 'dump ins' out of 22 (55%).
  
• And, they won 7/8 in the 1st period!
• Toronto had a respectable total of 23 'carry ins'.
• The Leafs generated many of their chances off the rush.
• The Leafs had only 5 'dump in' wins out of 22 (23%).
• The Canucks won the puck battle decisively.
• Coach Torterella's aggressive forecheck system was very effective in this game.
  

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.

	VANCOUVER				TORONTO
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	10	22	45%		14	28	59%
2	7	14	50%		6	17	35%
3	7	16	44%		6	13	46%
Total	24	52	46%		26	58	45%

• Both teams were slightly below average in terms of DZE%.
• The Canucks aggressive forecheck in the first did allow the Leafs a higher DZE%.
• It is surprising to me that the Canucks dominance doesn't show up in this start?!
  
• The Canucks must have also won the majority of puck battles in the neutral zone?!
• The Canucks defense seemed content to dump the puck out whenever necessary.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}

	VANCOUVER	TORONTO
	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
	7.6  = 5.9 (1.7) {0}	3.4  = 2.3 (1) {0}

• Expected Score suggests: the Canucks should have won the game 8 - 3.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

• Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3
• James Reimer had an {EGA} of ~ 6.7
  
• Luongo's rating was +3 goals.
  
• Reimer's rating was +2.7 goals.
  
• The goaltending battle was basically a  draw as both teams received exceptional performances.

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

• The Canucks won the turnover battle decisively.
  
• Vancouver had a below average total of 12 turnovers - only 5 in the final two periods.
  
• The Leafs had an above average total of 23 turnovers- including 12 in the first period!
  

THE DECIDING FACTORS

• The Canucks aggressive forecheck was a key difference.
• Vancouver were able to force Leafs turnovers in the neutral zone.
• Both teams created significant offense from neutral zone entries.
• Both goalies were great, and were nearly +6 goals in EGA (combined).
  
• The Leafs are a porous defensive team that got away with many obvious infractions.
• The Leafs could have objectively been shorthanded at least 13 times instead of 7.
• The Leafs appeared to use the 70's Flyers strategy that 'the refs just won't call it all'.

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

One more treat for Canuck fans (courtesy of extraskater.com)

Feel free to add comments and questions below!