Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #22 Canucks vs. Stars

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period	Totals		EV		PP		SH
	VAN	DAL	VAN	DAL	VAN	DAL	VAN	DAL
1	8	5	8	5	0	0	0	0
2	7	2	3	2	4	0	0	0
3	7	4	6	4	1	0	0	0
OVR	22	11	17	11	5	0	0	0

Good News:

The Canucks played a great game! They easily won the chance battle again.

The Canucks started strongly but the team couldn't finish on their many chances.

The Canucks offense was terrific against good opposition.

Vancouver should have won the game and were the better team on the night.

The Canucks are having a run of bad luck - the tables will turn.

Ultimately the game was decided by a ridiculous 'non-goal' call.

Bad News: Not much.

The Canucks are giving up high quality chances early in games.

This is especially true off of the rush.

I wonder, if their new aggressive forecheck system is too risky?

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team	Period	Time	Note	Home						Away						State
Away	1	19:37	Benn, rush - Hamhuis turnover	1	2	8	17	20	36	3	4	14	32	43	91	5v5
Home	1	19:12	H. Sedin breakaway -pass D. Sedin	1	5	14	22	23	33	6	12	20	32	33	72	5v5
Home	1	18:50	H. Sedin	1	3	14	18	22	33	10	17	24	32	38	55	5v5
Home	1	17:39	Kassian -rebound	1	5	7	9	23	25	3	4	14	32	43	91	5v5
Away	1	16:15	Eakin - deflection ms	1	2	3	14	17	20	12	20	24	32	55	72	5v5
Away	1	15:14	#16 - rush	1	5	9	22	23	33	6	16	21	32	33	39	5v5
Home	1	15:06	Kassian - rebound	1	5	9	22	23	33	6	16	21	32	33	39	5v5
Home	1	14:37	Santorelli - pass Kassian	1	2	7	8	9	25	14	24	32	43	55	91	5v5
Away	1	14:04	Nichushkin beat Garrison	1	2	5	13	15	29	3	4	20	32	43	72	5v5
Away	1	10:28	Nichushkin (Goal) Sesito turnover	1	5	13	15	23	29	6	14	24	32	43	91	5v5
Home	1	9:46	Higgins	1	3	17	18	20	36	6	10	17	32	33	38	5v5
Home	1	4:46	Hamhuis - ms - rebound	1	2	8	15	17	20	6	12	20	32	33	72	5v5
Home	1	0:39	Kassian - deflection	1	2	7	8	9	25	6	14	32	33	43	91	5v5
Home	2	19:26	H. Sedin - pp	1	3	17	22	23	33	3	4	21	32	38		5v4
Away	2	14:22	R. Peverley	1	5	7	20	23	33	4	14	17	32	33	91	5v5
Home	2	13:35	Burrows	1	5	14	18	22	33	10	17	32	33	38	55	5v5
Home	2	13:19	H. Sedin rebound (Goal) C'mon ref?!	1	3	17	22	23	33	3	4	21	32	38		5v4
Home	2	12:06	Bieksa - pp , pass H. Sedin	1	3	17	22	23	33	3	4	12	17	32		5v4
Home	2	8:55	Garrison pp - screen	1	2	5	14	20	25	10	12	24	32	55		5v4
Away	2	8:05	Benn - rush 2 on 1 , Tanev error	1	2	7	8	9	15	6	14	32	33	43	91	5v5
Home	2	2:49	D. Sedin	1	5	9	18	22	33	6	10	16	32	33	38	5v5
Home	2	2:04	Burrows post, pass from H. Sedin	1	5	14	22	23	33	3	4	32	43	72	91	5v5
Home	3	19:16	Kelser - pass Hansen	1	5	17	20	23	36	3	4	14	32	43	91	5v5
Away	3	18:48	Benn - rush	1	5	17	22	23	36	4	6	14	20	32	43	5v5
Away	3	18:18	Cole - 2 on 1 rush , turnover H. Sedin	1	3	14	18	22	33	10	17	24	32	38	55	5v5
Home	3	16:55	Kesler - pp	1	3	17	22	23	33	3	4	21	32	38		5v4
Home	3	16:54	H. sedin rebound pp	1	2	8	17	20	36	6	14	32	33	43	91	5v5
Home	3	13:40	Higgins - wraparound	1	3	17	18	20	36	3	4	12	20	32	72	5v5
Away	3	12:33	Golionski	1	5	14	22	23	33	6	10	17	32	33	38	5v5
Home	3	12:07	Kelser - beat D , ms	1	2	5	15	17	20	10	17	24	32	39	55	5v5
Home	3	11:20	D. Sedin	1	3	14	22	23	33	3	4	16	21	32	39	5v5
Away	3	3:30	Cole - rush, beat Garrison	1	2	5	14	22	33	6	12	20	32	33	72	5v5
Home	3	0:11	H. Sedin ms	2	5	14	17	22	33	3	6	14	17	32	91	5v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
1	LUONGO, ROBERTO		16	11		5	0		0	0
2	HAMHUIS, DAN	19:37	6	5	02:04	1	0	01:17	0	0
3	BIEKSA, KEVIN	18:20	4	2	04:35	4	0	01:14	0	0
5	GARRISON, JASON	18:34	9	7	01:56	1	0	00:05	0	0
7	BOOTH, DAVID	14:23	3	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
8	TANEV, CHRISTOPHER	15:06	4	2	00:08	0	0	01:07	0	0
9	KASSIAN, ZACK	14:49	5	2	00:00	0	0	00:05	0	0
13	WELSH, JEREMY	00:18	0	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
14	BURROWS, ALEXANDRE	15:40	6	4	02:04	1	0	00:20	0	0
15	RICHARDSON, BRAD	06:51	2	3	00:00	0	0	00:41	0	0
17	KESLER, RYAN	19:07	7	3	04:35	4	0	01:20	0	0
18	STANTON, RYAN	12:08	5	1	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
20	HIGGINS, CHRIS	17:48	6	3	02:24	1	0	01:25	0	0
22	SEDIN, DANIEL	18:27	8	5	04:15	4	0	00:20	0	0
23	EDLER, ALEXANDER	18:18	6	5	04:35	4	0	01:09	0	0
25	SANTORELLI, MIKE	11:28	3	0	02:24	1	0	00:46	0	0
29	SESTITO, TOM	00:30	0	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
33	SEDIN, HENRIK	18:21	8	5	04:15	4	0	00:00	0	0
36	HANSEN, JANNIK	14:50	4	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0

Alex Burrows was reunited with the Twins - they were 22 -14 in SCD at ES.

Many other Canuck forwards had strong games.

Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins, Mike Santorelli and Zack Kassian were 21 -8 SCD at ES.

As I said last time, Burrows is definitely well overdue to score. That!..Damn!.. Post!

Tom Sesitio and Jeremy Welsh appear to be write offs.

Somehow, the pair managed to be 0-4 in SCD with 48 seconds of ice tiime?!

All Canucks D -men were on the plus side.of the SCD ledger.

Yes, even #23 'Eddie" the Anchor was +1.- (Now only -30 SCD at ES on the season).

Conversely, Cody Eakin was the only Star on the plus side. He had a 4-3 SCD at ES.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Kari Lehtonen
2. Ryan Kesler (11-3) total SCD and he was dangerous all night.
3. Henrik Sedin (12-5) total SCD -He scored 2* goals but had one big defensive turnover.
   

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.

	VANCOUVER				DALLAS
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	13	37	35%		17	32	53%
2	12	22	55%		9	19	47%
3	14	33	42%		10	26	38%
Total	39	92	42%		36	77	47%

• This game, OZE%.stats do not reflect the Canucks large edge in the game.
• This is a rare occurance and I'm not sure why? I am open to suggestions?
  
• The Stars sat back in the third period but did not surrender the neutral zone.
  
• The Canucks had a very high total of 33 successful 'carry ins'. And, 25 in the first two periods.
  
• The Canucks had only 11 successful 'dump ins' (36 att.) for a low rate of (31%).
• The Canucks aggressive forecheck was not effective.
• Dallas had an average total of 23 'carry ins'.
  
• The Stars had 12 'dump in' wins out of 43 for only a rate of (28%).
• However, the Stars had a very effective forecheck in the first period.
• Dallas was 10/18 in 'dump in %' in the 1st period.
• This was the Canucks' worst period in terms of ' dump wins' of the season.
  
• This included a big puck retrieval by Tyler Seguin to set up the first goal of the game.
  

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.

	VANCOUVER				DALLAS
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	19	29	66%		13	35	37%
2	6	15	40%		13	24	54%
3	16	33	48%		15	45	33%
Total	41	77	53%		41	104	40%

• The Canucks won the 1st and 3rd periods in terms of DZE%.
• However, does every reward comes at an increased risk?
• Are the Canucks attempts to hold onto the puck coming at the cost of more turnovers?
  
• The Canucks had a ridiculous number last night! -13 turnover in the 1st period (see below).
• Perhaps Vancouver needs to make the safe dump out play a little more often?
  
• Conversely, the Stars were clearly content to dump the puck out, when necessary.
• DZE% shows us that the Stars create most of their offense from their forwards.
• DZE% also shows the Canucks carried the play especially in the 3rd period.
• Vancouver had 25% more DZE Attempts overall.
  

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.

	VANCOUVER	Dallas
	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
	5.4= 3.9 (1.5) {0}	2.4 = 2.4 (0) {0}

• Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 5 - Dallas 2

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

• Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.2.
• Luongo's rating was +.2.
• Kari Lehtonen had an {EGA} of ~4.6.
  
• Lehtonen's rating was +3.6.
  
• The Stars won the Goaltending battle ~3.4 goals.
• In the Canucks' last 4 losses:
• Opposing Goaltender rating: ~ +11 goals.
  
• Luongo (and Lack's) rating: ~ - .6 goals.
• Wow! These numbers say it all!
  

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

• Vancouver had a very high total of 26 turnovers.
• The Canucks' turnover rate continues to be the most concerning stat of this team.
• The Stars also had an high total of 25 turnovers.
  

THE DECIDING FACTORS

• The Stars goaltending and luck were the key factors in the game.(besides the 'non-goal').
• The Stars aggressive forcheck was a difference in the first period.
• The Canucks goals against at (ES), is actually more of a concern then their lack of scoring.
  
• I hope to have an in-depth post on this tomorrow.
• One reason for the increased goals against could be turnovers!
• Canucks turnovers are very high and a real issue - they need to protect the puck more.
• A second reason might be a drop in Luongo's play.
• Lui has not been bad but he used to be 'elite', and he is 34.
  
• I wonder, is he on the downside of his career?.
• I won't mention much about the officials - except the Stars were playing 2004 rules and could have had 10 penalties last night!
• For example. check out Ryan Kelser undressing Sergi Gonchar mid-way in the third. Sergi clearly puts his stick in Kesler's mid-section 'a la' Henrik vs. SJ in ot last Friday. This infraction took away a great scoring chance by RK. There was no call and, Ryan to his credit, did not whine. It is about consistency and the NHL is clearly lacking in this area.

And, for those worried Canuck fans, the team is really improving their possession numbers! In the last 6 games they have a ~58% Pos. F Close rating (123-90 in shot attempts).They now rank 6th in the league, at ~54% for the season, and they are 2nd in their division. This is the teams' highest ranking since 2011, when they were third. Of course, the Canucks still need to be able to finish more scoring chances - we are just waitin' for the luck to change! Voodoo dolls?! Anyone?!

Feel free to comment below!

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)