Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #20 Canucks vs. Ducks

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period	Totals		EV		PP		SH
	VAN	ANA	VAN	ANA	VAN	ANA	VAN	ANA
1	4	2	4	2	0	0	0	0
2	6	5	4	5	2	0	0
3	4	4	4	4	0	0	0	0
OVR	14	11	12	11	2	0	0	0

Good News:

The Canucks has another good road game in the division (by SCD metrics).

Despite fatigue, the Canucks are 'not' being dominated by any teams in the chance battle.

The Canucks continued to battle right to the end of the game.

By SCD metrics, this game looked very similar to the other games this week.

Bad News: Considering the brutal schedule, the team played very well.

They could have easily won the game and were the better team on the night.

Ultimately the game was decided by a lucky bounce on the Perry header goal -Another example of modern 'pinball' hockey.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team	Period	Time	Note	Home						Away						State
Away	1	17:48	Dalpe, rush ms pass Archibau\ld	21	23	31	55	65	67	3	13	18	21	31	49	5v5
Home	1	12:06	Perry - Tournover H. Sedin	4	6	10	17	22	31	2	5	9	15	29	31	5v5
Away	1	11:11	Burrows - rebound wraparound	4	6	7	31	34	77	8	14	18	20	25	31	5v5
Away	1	10:49	Higgins - rush - ms	21	23	31	47	65	67	8	14	18	20	25	31	5v5
Home	1	6:58	Rakell - rebound	4	6	21	31	65	67	2	8	9	15	29	31	5v5
Away	1	0:33	Bieksa - rush pass Dalpe	10	17	22	23	31	47	3	14	20	23	25	31	5v5
Away	2	19:18	Hamhuis - pp ms	13	23	31	34	55		2	14	17	22	31	33	4v5
Away	2	17:32	Bieksa - rush	10	13	23	31	47		3	5	9	20	25	31	4v5
Away	2	17:30	Santorelli - rebound , post	4	10	13	23	31	47	3	5	9	20	25	31	5v5
Away	2	15:55	Welsch - pass Dalpe	10	13	17	23	31	47	3	5	13	21	31	49	5v5
Home	2	15:28	Lindholm - rush , ms	10	13	17	23	31	47	3	5	17	22	31	33	5v5
Home	2	11:30	Perry - (goal) rebound	5	21	31	55	65	67	3	13	18	21	31	49	5v5
Away	2	11:03	Stanton -	4	6	7	31	34	77	3	17	18	22	31	33	5v5
Home	2	8:47	Rakell - breakaway - turnover Stanton	5	21	31	55	65	67	3	9	15	18	29	31	5v5
Away	2	5:52	Sesito - (goal) passs Richardson - dump win	5	10	17	22	31	55	2	8	9	15	29	31	5v5
Home	2	1:53	Bonino - rush	4	8	13	23	31	47	3	5	9	20	25	31	5v5
Home	2	0:52	Bonino - (goal) bad change	10	13	23	31	47	65	2	3	17	22	31	33	5v5
Away	3	15:28	Santorelli - deflection - ms	4	23	31	34	65	77	5	17	22	23	25	31	5v5
Home	3	14:27	Penner rush beat Edler one on one	6	10	17	22	31	47	2	14	20	23	31	33	5v5
Home	3	11:04	Perrault - rush	10	17	22	23	31	47	3	17	22	23	25	31	5v5
Home	3	8:29	Perry - ms	10	17	22	23	31	47	5	17	22	23	25	31	5v5
Away	3	7:55	Burrows - pass H. Sedin	4	6	7	31	34	77	3	14	18	20	31	33	5v5
Away	3	6:06	Kesler - rush	10	17	22	23	31	47	5	17	22	23	25	31	5v5
Home	3	5:37	Penner - 2 on 1 rush	4	6	10	17	22	31	5	17	22	23	25	31	5v5
Away	3	3:42	Santorelli - takeaway , ms	5	10	13	31	55	65	5	17	22	23	25	31	5v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
2	HAMHUIS, DAN	18:20	1	4	02:04	1	0	01:56	0	0
3	BIEKSA, KEVIN	18:10	6	6	01:11	1	0	02:04	0	0
5	GARRISON, JASON	16:50	5	5	01:56	1	0	00:48	0	0
8	TANEV, CHRISTOPHER	18:42	3	1	00:00	0	0	01:08	0	0
9	KASSIAN, ZACK	12:00	2	4	02:20	1	0	00:00	0	0
13	WELSH, JEREMY	06:03	2	1	00:45	0	0	00:00	0	0
14	BURROWS, ALEXANDRE	17:04	4	1	01:40	1	0	00:00	0	0
15	RICHARDSON, BRAD	12:58	1	3	00:00	0	0	01:34	0	0
17	KESLER, RYAN	17:23	4	5	02:18	1	0	01:12	0	0
18	STANTON, RYAN	13:06	5	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
20	HIGGINS, CHRIS	16:27	5	2	01:42	1	0	01:12	0	0
21	DALPE, ZAC	06:03	2	1	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
22	SEDIN, DANIEL	17:07	4	5	02:18	1	0	01:14	0	0
23	EDLER, ALEXANDER	19:11	4	4	00:31	0	0	02:04	0	0
25	SANTORELLI, MIKE	14:50	7	4	01:42	1	0	01:34	0	0
29	SESTITO, TOM	11:42	1	3	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
31	LACK, EDDIE		12	11		2	0		0	0
33	SEDIN, HENRIK	18:47	2	3	01:33	1	0	01:14	0	0
49	ARCHIBALD, DARREN	06:10	2	1	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0

The Canucks HAVE a 2nd line!

Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were a terrific 19-7 in SCD at ES.

Burrows is definitely overdue to score.

Burrows has had a knack for finishing and IS getting quality chances.

Perhaps his timing is off from missing games due to injury.

Christopher Tanev and Ryan Stanton were the best D-men 8-3 in SCD at ES.

The pair had low chances games as they were on the ice for a very low 3 chances against.

Conversely, Corey Perry and Dustin Penner had high chance games.

Perry was on the ice for 13 chances (7-6) SCD and Penner for 10. He was 6-4 in SCD at ES.

No other Anaheim Duck stood out in terms of SCD.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Fredrick Andersen {+2 goals rating}.
2. Alex Burrows
   
3. Mike Santorelli

Honorable Mention: Dustin Penner (because I love pancakes!)

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.

	VANCOUVER				ANAHEIM
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	18	32	56%		6	22	36%
2	19	36	53%		18	30	60%
3	15	33	45%		19	32	59%
Total	52	101	52%		43	84	51%

• Overall, the game was even in terms of OZE%.
• However, OZE% clearly shows the Canucks dominated the first period.
• It was good to see Vancouver decisively win at least one period in the neutral zone battle.
  
• The team was unlucky not to score or receive any power plays in this period.
  
• The Canucks also had ~16% more Ozone attempts as they carried the play all night.
  
• Did fatigue contribute to Anaheim's improvement in the final two periods?
• The Canucks had a very high total of 33 successful 'carry ins'. And, 15 in the 1st period.
  
• The Canucks had 18 successful 'dump ins' (out of 46) for an ave. rate of (39%).
• The Canucks aggressive forecheck was moderately effective .
• The Canucks also won the puck battle game decisevly.
• The Canucks 'should' have had more scoring chances.
  
• Anaheim also had a very high total of 32 'carry ins - buy only 6 in the first period.
  
• The Ducks had only 12 'dump in' wins out of 44 for only a rate of (27%).

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.

	VANCOUVER				ANAHEIM
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	17	38	45%		15	33	43%
2	18	33	55%		8	30	26%
3	19	37	57%		12	29	43%
Total	54	108	52%		35	92	38%

• The Canucks were also better at DZE% in this game.
• However, the Ducks sat back in the final period to protect the lead.
  
• DZE% shows us that the Ducks are vulnerable on the defence.
• The Canucks should do well next game versus the Ducks, with their aggressive forecheck and when they are not as tired.
  

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.

	VANCOUVER	ANAHEIM
	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
	3.4 = 2.7 (.7) {0}	2.5 = 2.3 (.15) {0}

• Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - Anaheim 2.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

• Eddie Lack had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.
• Lack's rating was +0.
• Fredrick Andersen had an {EGA} of ~ 3.0
  
• Andersen's rating was + 2.
• The Ducks won the goaltending battle by nearly 2 goals!

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

• It was a very sloppy game.
• Vancouver had another high total of 28 turnovers.
• I remain concerned about the Canucks high turnover totals.
• I'm hoping fatigue is a main factor.
• The Ducks had a even higher total of 33 turnovers.
  
• My guess is that the Ducks are playing above their heads, and they are good as their record.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

• The Ducks goaltending and luck were the key factors in the game.
  
• The Canucks won every stat battle in the game!
  
• Once again, the Canucks did not receive the penalty calls they deserved.
  
• Burrows, Kelser and Henrik all drew clear penalties and, Garrison's first penalty was not a high stick.
• The better team ought to draw more penalties- it isn't happening enough in Canuck games.

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)

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My prediction right now is the Canucks finish fifth - just out of the playoffs. I really hope my math is wrong?! However, if Mike Gillis gets a legitimate center and the team gets more power plays they could finish as high as third.

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