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Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #20 Canucks vs. Ducks

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A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-1 loss to the Ducks.

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

ANA

VAN

ANA

VAN

ANA

VAN

ANA

1

4

2

4

2

0

0

0

0

2

6

5

4

5

2

0

0

3

4

4

4

4

0

0

0

0

OVR

14

11

12

11

2

0

0

0

  • Good News:
  • The Canucks has another good road game in the division (by SCD metrics).
  • Despite fatigue, the Canucks are 'not' being dominated by any teams in the chance battle.
  • The Canucks continued to battle right to the end of the game.
  • By SCD metrics, this game looked very similar to the other games this week.
  • Bad News: Considering the brutal schedule, the team played very well.
  • They could have easily won the game and were the better team on the night.
  • Ultimately the game was decided by a lucky bounce on the Perry header goal -Another example of modern 'pinball' hockey.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 17:48 Dalpe, rush ms pass Archibau\ld 21 23 31 55 65 67 3 13 18 21 31 49 5v5
    Home 1 12:06 Perry - Tournover H. Sedin 4 6 10 17 22 31 2 5 9 15 29 31 5v5
    Away 1 11:11 Burrows - rebound wraparound 4 6 7 31 34 77 8 14 18 20 25 31 5v5
    Away 1 10:49 Higgins - rush - ms 21 23 31 47 65 67 8 14 18 20 25 31 5v5
    Home 1 6:58 Rakell - rebound 4 6 21 31 65 67 2 8 9 15 29 31 5v5
    Away
    1 0:33 Bieksa - rush pass Dalpe 10 17 22 23 31 47 3 14 20 23 25 31 5v5
    Away 2 19:18 Hamhuis - pp ms 13 23 31 34 55 2 14 17 22 31 33 4v5
    Away 2 17:32 Bieksa - rush 10 13 23 31 47 3 5 9 20 25 31 4v5
    Away 2 17:30 Santorelli - rebound , post 4 10 13 23 31 47 3 5 9 20 25 31 5v5
    Away 2 15:55 Welsch - pass Dalpe 10 13 17 23 31 47 3 5 13 21 31 49 5v5
    Home 2 15:28 Lindholm - rush , ms 10 13 17 23 31 47 3 5 17 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 2 11:30 Perry - (goal) rebound 5 21 31 55 65 67 3 13 18 21 31 49 5v5
    Away 2 11:03 Stanton - 4 6 7 31 34 77 3 17 18 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 2 8:47 Rakell - breakaway - turnover Stanton 5 21 31 55 65 67 3 9 15 18 29 31 5v5
    Away 2 5:52 Sesito - (goal) passs Richardson - dump win 5 10 17 22 31 55 2 8 9 15 29 31 5v5
    Home 2 1:53 Bonino - rush 4 8 13 23 31 47 3 5 9 20 25 31 5v5
    Home 2 0:52 Bonino - (goal) bad change 10 13 23 31 47 65 2 3 17 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 3 15:28 Santorelli - deflection - ms 4 23 31 34 65 77 5 17 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Home 3 14:27 Penner rush beat Edler one on one 6 10 17 22 31 47 2 14 20 23 31 33 5v5
    Home 3 11:04 Perrault - rush 10 17 22 23 31 47 3 17 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Home 3 8:29 Perry - ms 10 17 22 23 31 47 5 17 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Away 3 7:55 Burrows - pass H. Sedin 4 6 7 31 34 77 3 14 18 20 31 33 5v5
    Away 3 6:06 Kesler - rush 10 17 22 23 31 47 5 17 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Home 3 5:37 Penner - 2 on 1 rush 4 6 10 17 22 31 5 17 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Away 3 3:42 Santorelli - takeaway , ms 5 10 13 31 55 65 5 17 22 23 25 31 5v5

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 18:20 1 4 02:04 1 0 01:56 0 0
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 18:10 6 6 01:11 1 0 02:04 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 16:50 5 5 01:56 1 0 00:48 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 18:42 3 1 00:00 0 0 01:08 0 0
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 12:00 2 4 02:20 1 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 06:03 2 1 00:45 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 17:04 4 1 01:40 1 0 00:00 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 12:58 1 3 00:00 0 0 01:34 0 0
    17 KESLER, RYAN 17:23 4 5 02:18 1 0 01:12 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 13:06 5 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 16:27 5 2 01:42 1 0 01:12 0 0
    21 DALPE, ZAC 06:03 2 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 17:07 4 5 02:18 1 0 01:14 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 19:11 4 4 00:31 0 0 02:04 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 14:50 7 4 01:42 1 0 01:34 0 0
    29 SESTITO, TOM 11:42 1 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    31 LACK, EDDIE 12 11 2 0 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 18:47 2 3 01:33 1 0 01:14 0 0
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 06:10 2 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • The Canucks HAVE a 2nd line!
  • Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were a terrific 19-7 in SCD at ES.
  • Burrows is definitely overdue to score.
  • Burrows has had a knack for finishing and IS getting quality chances.
  • Perhaps his timing is off from missing games due to injury.
  • Christopher Tanev and Ryan Stanton were the best D-men 8-3 in SCD at ES.
  • The pair had low chances games as they were on the ice for a very low 3 chances against.
  • Conversely, Corey Perry and Dustin Penner had high chance games.
  • Perry was on the ice for 13 chances (7-6) SCD and Penner for 10. He was 6-4 in SCD at ES.
  • No other Anaheim Duck stood out in terms of SCD.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Fredrick Andersen {+2 goals rating}.
    2. Alex Burrows
    3. Mike Santorelli

    Honorable Mention: Dustin Penner (because I love pancakes!)

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    ANAHEIM


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    18

    32

    56%


    6

    22

    36%

    2

    19

    36

    53%


    18

    30

    60%

    3

    15

    33

    45%


    19

    32

    59%









    Total

    52

    101

    52%


    43

    84

    51%

    • Overall, the game was even in terms of OZE%.
    • However, OZE% clearly shows the Canucks dominated the first period.
    • It was good to see Vancouver decisively win at least one period in the neutral zone battle.
    • The team was unlucky not to score or receive any power plays in this period.
    • The Canucks also had ~16% more Ozone attempts as they carried the play all night.
    • Did fatigue contribute to Anaheim's improvement in the final two periods?
    • The Canucks had a very high total of 33 successful 'carry ins'. And, 15 in the 1st period.
    • The Canucks had 18 successful 'dump ins' (out of 46) for an ave. rate of (39%).
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was moderately effective .
    • The Canucks also won the puck battle game decisevly.
    • The Canucks 'should' have had more scoring chances.
    • Anaheim also had a very high total of 32 'carry ins - buy only 6 in the first period.
    • The Ducks had only 12 'dump in' wins out of 44 for only a rate of (27%).

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    ANAHEIM


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    17

    38

    45%


    15

    33

    43%

    2

    18

    33

    55%


    8

    30

    26%

    3

    19

    37

    57%


    12

    29

    43%









    Total

    54

    108

    52%


    35

    92

    38%

    • The Canucks were also better at DZE% in this game.
    • However, the Ducks sat back in the final period to protect the lead.
    • DZE% shows us that the Ducks are vulnerable on the defence.
    • The Canucks should do well next game versus the Ducks, with their aggressive forecheck and when they are not as tired.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    ANAHEIM


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    3.4 = 2.7 (.7) {0}

    2.5 = 2.3 (.15) {0}

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - Anaheim 2.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Eddie Lack had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.
    • Lack's rating was +0.
    • Fredrick Andersen had an {EGA} of ~ 3.0
    • Andersen's rating was + 2.
    • The Ducks won the goaltending battle by nearly 2 goals!

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • It was a very sloppy game.
    • Vancouver had another high total of 28 turnovers.
    • I remain concerned about the Canucks high turnover totals.
    • I'm hoping fatigue is a main factor.
    • The Ducks had a even higher total of 33 turnovers.
    • My guess is that the Ducks are playing above their heads, and they are good as their record.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Ducks goaltending and luck were the key factors in the game.
    • The Canucks won every stat battle in the game!
    • Once again, the Canucks did not receive the penalty calls they deserved.
    • Burrows, Kelser and Henrik all drew clear penalties and, Garrison's first penalty was not a high stick.
    • The better team ought to draw more penalties- it isn't happening enough in Canuck games.

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-10-canucks-ducks_medium

    Be sure to Vote.

    My prediction right now is the Canucks finish fifth - just out of the playoffs. I really hope my math is wrong?! However, if Mike Gillis gets a legitimate center and the team gets more power plays they could finish as high as third.

    Time for you to vote?! And, feel free to comment below!