Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #19 Canucks vs. Kings

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period	Totals		EV		PP		SH
	VAN	LAK	VAN	LAK	VAN	LAK	VAN	LAK
1	10	5	8	5	2	0	0	0
2	3	6	2	6	1	0	0	0
3	2	3	2	1	0	2	0	0
OVR	15	14	12	12	3	2	0	0

Good News: The final score was very misleading.

It was another even game (in SCD) on the road versus a division rival.

The Canucks came out on fire- a 7-1 SCD in the first 7 minutes.

By SCD metrics, this game looked very similar to the recent Coyotes and Sharks games.

Bad News: The Canucks only created 4 chances at (ES) in the final forty minutes.

For the first time this year, the Canucks surrendered when the floodgates opened in the 2nd.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team	Period	Time	Note	Home						Away						State
Home	1	19:10	Doughty - Rebound Luongo	6	8	11	14	23	32	1	2	8	17	20	33	5v5
Away	1	15:12	Burrows - Puck battle win Santorelli	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	2	8	14	20	25	5v5
Away	1	15:10	Santorelli - rebound	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	2	8	14	20	25	5v5
Away	1	15:01	Burrows	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	2	8	14	20	25	5v5
Away	1	14:58	Higgins - rebound	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	2	8	14	20	25	5v5
Away	1	14:06	D. Sedin - rush	13	21	22	27	32	33	1	5	17	22	23	33	5v5
Away	1	13:37	H. Sedin	8	13	21	22	32	33	1	5	17	22	23	33	5v5
Away	1	13:32	Kesler - rebound	8	13	21	22	32	33	1	5	17	22	23	33	5v5
Home	1	9:54	Kopitar - rush, bad pinch Hamhuis	11	14	23	27	32	33	1	2	8	14	20	33	5v5
Home	1	8:27	Deflection -	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	3	9	18	25	49	5v5
Away	1	7:38	Nolan -rush, (goal) - turnover Hamhuis	17	27	32	33	57	71	1	2	8	9	15	22	5v5
Home	1	5:50	Doughty- rush ms	8	13	21	22	32	33	1	2	8	14	20	25	5v5
Away	1	1:48	D. Sedin	8	11	22	32	33		1	2	14	17	22	33	4v5
Away	1	1:27	Kesler - pp	8	11	22	32	33		1	2	14	17	22	33	4v5
Home	1	0:51	Tofoli - rush (goal)- D. Sedin loses man	8	11	23	32	33		1	2	8	17	20		4v4
Away	2	18:54	Burrows - pp, pass D. Sedin	10	26	32	44	74		1	2	14	17	22	33	4v5
Home	2	14:52	Doughty, rush	6	8	11	14	23	32	1	5	15	23	29	49	5v5
Home	2	13:07	Richards	17	27	32	33	57	71	1	5	9	15	23	29	5v5
Away	2	11:09	Hamhuis (goal) Screen H. Sedin	11	14	17	26	32	33	1	2	3	17	22	33	5v5
Away	2	10:30	Higgins - ms	6	8	10	32	73	74	1	3	14	20	23	25	5v5
Home	2	10:10	Richards (goal) - tournover Bieksa, Edler out of position	10	26	32	44	73	74	1	3	14	20	23	25	5v5
Home	2	8:15	Williams (goal) -	11	14	23	26	32	44	1	5	17	22	23	33	5v5
Home	2	7:28	Tofoli (goal) - Hamhuis trapped om ozone..	10	26	32	44	73	74	2	8	17	22	31	33	5v5
Home	2	0:56	Lewis - Breakaway - turnover Kassian	6	8	17	21	22	32	5	9	15	18	20	31	5v5
Home	3	14:32	King, pp	6	8	10	11	32	73	2	8	14	15	31		5v4
Away	3	10:40	Richardson, ms	8	21	32	33	57	71	2	8	15	17	29	31	5v5
Away	3	8:17	Welsch - odd man rush	11	14	23	26	32	44	2	8	13	21	29	31	5v5
Home	3	5:40	Fall Down Brown - rush	11	14	23	26	27	32	5	14	18	21	31		5v4
Home	3	2:58	Kopitar - rush	11	14	23	27	32	33	5	9	14	18	25	31	5v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
1	LUONGO, ROBERTO		10	9		3	0		0	0
2	HAMHUIS, DAN	19:05	8	5	01:31	3	0	01:43	0	1
3	BIEKSA, KEVIN	18:08	2	2	00:00	0	0	03:05	0	0
5	GARRISON, JASON	15:30	3	5	00:29	0	0	01:12	0	1
8	TANEV, CHRISTOPHER	18:13	7	5	00:00	0	0	02:23	0	1
9	KASSIAN, ZACK	13:26	1	4	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
13	WELSH, JEREMY	09:56	1	0	00:00	0	0	01:00	0	0
14	BURROWS, ALEXANDRE	12:38	5	4	01:52	3	0	03:10	0	2
15	RICHARDSON, BRAD	12:31	2	3	00:00	0	0	02:17	0	1
17	KESLER, RYAN	14:02	5	4	01:31	3	0	01:44	0	0
18	STANTON, RYAN	14:43	0	3	00:00	0	0	00:32	0	1
20	HIGGINS, CHRIS	14:57	5	6	00:08	0	0	01:22	0	0
21	DALPE, ZAC	11:15	1	0	00:00	0	0	00:32	0	1
22	SEDIN, DANIEL	11:33	5	2	01:52	3	0	00:00	0	0
23	EDLER, ALEXANDER	18:28	4	4	00:29	0	0	03:05	0	0
25	SANTORELLI, MIKE	15:24	5	4	00:08	0	0	01:55	0	0
29	SESTITO, TOM	10:16	2	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
31	LACK, EDDIE		2	3		0	0		0	2
33	SEDIN, HENRIK	13:49	4	4	01:52	3	0	00:00	0	0
49	ARCHIBALD, DARREN	14:14	0	2	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0

The Cancks top 3 players -the Twins and Ryan Kesler, were 26-10 overall in SCD .

All three players missed glorious scoring chances early in the game.

The Canucks 2nd line of Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli held their own.

They did have a memorable 1st period shift that held the puck in Kings' zone for over 1 1/2 minutes.

Burrows also missed at least two clear scoring chances. One because of a Richards' hook.

Christopher Tanev and Dan Hamhuis were the best D-men, they were 15-10 SCD at ES.

However, Hamhuis did have three high profile mistakes that led to goals.

Dustin 'Fall Down" Brown, Justin Willimas, ans Anze Kopitar were terrific!

The Kings top trio had a combined 17-5 SCD in the game!

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Dustin' Fall Down" Brown
2. Anze Kopitar
3. Jonathan Quick ( +2.8 EGA)

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.

	VANCOUVER				LOS ANGELES
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	14	31	45%		17	26	65%
2	13	31	42%		14	26	54%
3	10	22	45%		12	20	60%
Total	37	83	44%		43	72	60%

• OZE% shows that the Kings were clearly the stronger team in transition.
  
• This stats clearly shows why the Kings are a dangerous team.
• It is rare for a team to be above 50% in OZE% all three periods.
• Even in the first period where the Canucks dominated the SCD battle.
• It was a high risk strategy, and the team left themselves open to the counter attack.
  
• Do the Canucks need to rethink their strategy versus better teams?
• Are they too aggressive thus leaving themselves open to high quality counterattack chances?
• In any event, the Canucks continue to lose the neutral zone battle.This is NOT a good sign.
• The Canucks had 20 successful 'carry ins'.
• The Canucks had only 14 successful 'dump ins' (out of 51) for an ave. rate of (27%).
• The Canucks aggressive forecheck was ineffective.
• The Canucks lost the puck battles by a decisive margin.
• Los Angeles had a high total of 25 'carry ins'.
  
• As a result, the Kings were the more dangerous team.
• And, the Kings 'should' have created more scoring chances.
• The Kings had 18 'dump in' wins out of 42 (43%).
• The Kings dump and chase game was vastly superior to the Canucks.

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.

	VANCOUVER				LOS ANGELES
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	17	43	40%		17	40	43%
2	9	27	28%		15	31	49%
3	8	14	57%		10	23	43%
Total	34	84	40%		42	94	45%

• The Kings took over the game in the 2nd period and DZE% confirms this.
  
• However, the Kings real strength and success is from their forwards and in OZE%.
  
• The Kings D are willing to dump the puck out and force turnovers in the other two zones.
• The Canucks are having difficulty getting out of their zone with possession
• The team hasn't been over 50% in DZE% in last 8 periods (except for the meaningless 3rd period vs the Kings).

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.

	VANCOUVER	LOS ANGELES
	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}	TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
	3.9 = 3.3 (.6) {0}	3.6 = 3.0 (.4) {.2}

• Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 4 - Los Angeles 4.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

• Johnathan Quick had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3.8.
• Quick's rating was + 2.8.
• Roberto Luongo had an {EGA} of ~ 2.3
  
• Eddie Lack had a {EGA} of ~1.2
• Luongo's rating was -1.3
• Lack's rating was +.2
• The Kings won the goaltending battle by nearly 4.3 goals!
• In terms of {EGA}, Quick's performance was the best by a goalie this year.

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

• Vancouver had another high total of 19 turnovers.
  
• The Kings only had 11 turnovers.
• The Canucks lost the turnover battle again.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

• The Kings' forwards won the puck battles most of the night.
  
• The Kings neutral zone/transitional play was vastly superior.
• Goaltending performance was the single key factor. (+4.3 goals for the Kings).
• Luongo couldn't give the team the big save when they needed it.

NHL Officiating

• The Canucks again recieved no favors from the officals.
• Vancouver is currently 25th in powerplays/gm. (They rank 20% below Carolina & the Flyers?!)
• Vancouver is top 10 in puck possession & are not diving or whining.
• So much for the skill of of a team 'earning' their power plays?
• Conversely, their division rivals are getting the 'calls' .
• The Sharks are 1st. The Coyotes 5th. The Kings 6th and the Ducks 9th.
• As mentioned, The Canucks dominated the Kings early, and out-chanced them 7-1.
• They even held the Kings in their zone for 1 and 1/2 minutes.
  
• Somehow, Vancouver did not receive a power play call?
  
• There is a serious question of integrity or competence with the NHL officials?!
• The reason why Burrows had to kick his goal in was because of a Richards' hook.
• Remember when a stick in the mid-section was a penalty?
• A souffle could be 'baked' and 'flop' in the time it took the official to call a phantom penalty on Hamhuis for his hip check on the Kings' 'Fall Down' Brown.
• The Kings had numerous late hits that were +5 on the Aaron Rome scale of interference -
  
• And, no calls?!
• And, Canuck fans for the second week in a row, were subjected to abysmal, unprofessional and biased CBC announcers.
• Canuck fans, tweet @HockeyNight and tell them what you think?!
• Lat week it was 'Heuy, Dewey, and Louie' and a pathetic Leafs' Love-fest'?!
• This time, it was Kelly Hrudey who couldn't help but wave his purple undies all night.
• Hrudely repeatedly failed to comment on Fall Down Brown and Doughty and their diving, the late hits, the interference on the Twins and Burrows, the boarding on Hamhuis, and the numerous terrible calls by the officials. (Brown with goaltending interference, Doughty with a pitch-fork in Kesler etc.).
  
• Instead he criticized Sesitio for taking a penalty for hitting the glass?
• Canuck fans deserve better from a 'national' network?!
• It is bound to be a battle for the Canucks right to the wire for a playoff position.
• Let's hope the NHL officials start to give the team the fair treatment they now deserve?!

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)

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