Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #13 Canucks vs. Capitals

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

	VAN				WSH
	ES	PP	SH		ES	PP	SH
1	3	3	0		4	2	0
2	5	3	0		1	1	0
3	6	3	1		1	1	0
0T	0	0	0		0	0	0
Totals	14	9	1		6	4	0
	VAN	23			WSH	10

Good News: The Canucks rebounded with their highest scoring chance total.

It appears the two days off they received were just what the team needed.

Vancouver's offense finally was able to create high quality scoring chances.

The first period was competitive, after that, the Canucks out-chanced the Caps 18-4.

The Canucks' Power Play continues to generate an above average number of chances.

The team is also generating a high number of shots and rank 2nd in the league.

The team is overdue to score on the PP as soon as the 'puck luck' shifts.

The Canucks defence play tightened after the first period.

The Canucks had the puck most of the night. Their Pos. FC was a very impressive 65%.

Bad News:

There are no complaints! It was an excellent all around game.

The Canucks did take advantage of another below average defensive team.

The Canucks turned the tables from last game, and posted 9 consecutive chances.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team	Period	Time	Note	Home						Away						State
Away	1	18:42	Ove - beat Edler (penalty shot)	1	5	17	23	29	33	8	19	30	52	88	90	5v5
Home	1	16:29	D. Sedin (takeaway H. Sedin	1	3	22	23	33		16	21	30	61	88		4v4
Home	1	15:49	Kesler - beat D one on one	1	5	17	22	23	33	10	20	30	61	88		5v4
Home	1	15:37	Burrows - screen	1	2	5	14	20	25	20	25	27	30	74		5v4
Away	1	14:55	Johansson - beat Edler wide	1	3	17	22	23	33	8	19	30	52	88	90	5v5
Home	1	11:41	Santorelli - pp	1	2	3	14	20	25	10	16	30	34	61		5v4
Away	1	10:39	Brower - beat Higgens	1	2	8	17	20		8	19	20	30	52	90	4v5
Away	1	9:42	Grabowski - turnover D. Sedin	1	2	8	22	33		8	10	21	30	42	74	4v5
Home	1	8:30	Kassian Goal - pass Higgins	1	5	9	13	20	23	16	25	30	52	84	88	5v5
Home	1	6:21	Kassian - takeaway and pass Burrows	1	3	9	18	20	25	16	24	30	34	43	61	5v5
Away	1	5:23	Ward - deflection, turnover Sesito	1	5	17	22	23	33	8	19	30	52	88	90	5v5
Away	1	0:22	Johansson - beat Edler	1	8	17	22	23	33	8	19	30	52	88	90	5v5
Home	2	15:54	Kesler - deflection pp	1	2	5	17	22	33	21	27	30	42	74		5v4
Home	2	15:52	H. Sedin -rebound pp	1	2	5	17	22	33	21	27	30	42	74		5v4
Away	2	14:06	Ovi - rush - beat Hamhuis and Tanev	1	2	8	15	25		8	19	20	30	52	90	4v5
Home	2	11:49	Archibald wins puck battle and pass.	1	8	13	14	18	49	16	25	27	30	74	84	5v5
Home	2	9:45	Richardson - rush , Kassian puck battle win	1	5	9	15	23	29	8	25	27	30	74	84	5v5
Home	2	8:29	H. Sedin -takeaway Kesler	1	3	13	17	22	23	8	19	30	61	88	90	5v5
Home	2	5:30	Kesler - ms , pass H. sedin pp	1	3	17	22	23	33	10	16	30	34	74		5v4
Away	2	3:45	Grabowski - deflection - ms	1	3	9	15	18	29	25	30	42	52	84	88	5v5
Home	2	1:39	Kesler - ms, pass Henrik	1	3	17	18	22	33	10	20	21	30	34	61	5v5
Home	2	0:54	Santorelli - won puck battle	1	5	17	20	23	25	25	27	30	42	74	84	5v5
Home	3	18:38	Kesler pass H. Sedin	1	2	8	17	22	33	8	19	27	30	74	90	5v5
Away	3	18:09	Grabowski - Goal -Bieksa lost PB, Stantion out of pos.	1	3	9	15	18	29	25	30	34	42	61	84	5v5
Home	3	17:45	Burrows - wraparound, takeaway	1	5	14	20	23	25	10	20	21	30	34	61	5v5
Home	3	17:08	Kesler (Goal) - rebound, pass H. Sedin	1	3	17	18	22	33	8	19	27	30	52	90	5v5
Home	3	15:43	H. Sedin - pass D. Sedin	1	2	8	17	22	33	8	19	27	30	74	90	5v5
Home	3	15:20	D. Sedin - deflection	1	2	8	17	22	33	8	19	27	30	74	90	5v5
Home	3	15:00	D. Sedin (Goal) - screen	1	2	8	17	22	33	8	19	27	30	74	90	5v5
Home	3	13:01	H. Sedin - ms	1	2	5	17	22	33	20	21	27	30	74		5v4
Home	3	12:45	H. Sedin	1	2	5	17	22	33	25	30	34	42	52		5v4
Home	3	6:20	Santorelli - ms, takeaway	1	5	15	23	25		8	19	20	30	52	90	4v5
Away	3	5:34	Erat - rebound, ms	1	2	8	17	20		8	10	20	21	30	74	4v5
Home	3	2:04	Santorelli - rush pp, pass Higgins	1	3	14	20	23	25	25	30	34	42	61		5v4

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
1	LUONGO, ROBERTO		14	6		9	0		1	4
2	HAMHUIS, DAN	12:54	4	0	05:36	6	0	04:33	0	4
3	BIEKSA, KEVIN	16:34	5	3	04:52	3	0	01:44	0	0
5	GARRISON, JASON	13:55	4	2	06:00	6	0	01:24	1	0
8	TANEV, CHRISTOPHER	12:59	5	1	00:00	0	0	04:25	0	4
9	KASSIAN, ZACK	10:28	3	2	00:07	0	0	00:00	0	0
13	WELSH, JEREMY	07:20	3	0	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0
14	BURROWS, ALEXANDRE	12:03	2	0	03:54	3	0	00:00	0	0
15	RICHARDSON, BRAD	09:47	1	2	00:47	0	0	03:07	1	1
17	KESLER, RYAN	14:57	8	4	06:08	6	0	02:48	0	2
18	STANTON, RYAN	11:42	4	2	00:08	0	0	00:03	0	0
20	HIGGINS, CHRIS	11:44	4	0	04:34	3	0	02:39	0	2
22	SEDIN, DANIEL	15:56	8	3	06:11	6	0	01:06	0	1
23	EDLER, ALEXANDER	17:07	6	4	05:13	3	0	01:35	1	0
25	SANTORELLI, MIKE	11:51	3	0	04:32	3	0	03:04	1	1
29	SESTITO, TOM	06:06	1	3	00:07	0	0	00:00	0	0
33	SEDIN, HENRIK	16:04	7	4	06:11	6	0	01:00	0	1
49	ARCHIBALD, DARREN	04:52	1	0	00:00	0	0	00:00	0	0

The Canucks' top line of Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler were the difference.

The line, (known as "Ry and Ginger"), were a combined 42-13 in SCD. (23-11 at ES).

The trio also played head to head against Alex Ovechkin winning the battle decisively..

Mike Santorelli had another strong game in a supporting role. He had a SCD of 7-1.

Kevin Bieksa was the best of the Canucks' blueliners.

Bieksa played 23+ minutes and posted an 8-3 SCD.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Ryan Kesler

2. Daniel Sedin

3. Micheal Neuvirth

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.

	VANCOUVER				WASHINGTON
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	15	24	63%		10	20	50%
2	15	26	58%		12	24	50%
3	13	19	68%		13	26	50%
Total	43	69	62%		35	70	50%

• The Canucks were the better team in the neutral zone.
• Overall, it was one of the teams' best games in terms of OZE%.
  
• The final score did not reflect the Canucks' advantage in the neutral zone.
  
• OZE% (against) shows the Capitals were an average team offensively.
• It was an even game in terms of OZE attempts.
  
• The Canucks had 26 successful 'carry ins' .
• Washington had an above average total of 29.
• The Capitals were an above average 'puck moving' team.
• However, they failed to create the expected number of scoring chances.
• The Canucks had 18 successful 'dump ins' out of 36 (50%).
  
• The Capitals had only 8 'dump in' wins out of 33 (24%).
• The Canucks' won the puck battle stat decisively.
  
• Coach John Torterella and his aggressive forecheck system was a big factor in the game.
  

DEFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.

	VANCOUVER				WASHINGTON
Period	Successful	Attempted	%		Successful	Attempted	%
1	15	29	52%		15	25	60%
2	15	29	52%		12	25	49%
3	16	29	54%		11	25	44%
Total	46	86	52%		38	75	50%

• Overall, the game was even in terms of DZE%.
• The Capitals defense moved the puck very well in the first period.
• The Capitals defence were above average in the first period.
• The Canucks forechecking put pressure on the Capitals defence in the last 2 periods.
  
• The Canucks defence were a little above average in DZE% for the game.
  

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}

	VANCOUVER	WASHINGTON
	ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE	ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE
	3.4 (2) {.1}= 5.5	1.5 (.8) {.2} = 2.5

• Expected Score suggests: the Canucks should have won the game 5 - 2.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

• Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 2.3.
• Michael Neuvrith had an {EPA} of ~5.5.
• Luongo's rating was +.3 goals.
  
• Neurith's rating +3.5 goals.
  
• The Capitals actually won the goaltending battle by a large margin.
• Luongo's performance looked better or more important because the Canucks did not score on an average number of their chances.
  

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

• The Canucks won the turnover battle.
  
• Vancouver had an above average total of 17 turnovers.
• The Canucks had 10 turnovers in the 1st period.
• Washington had a high total of 21 turnovers.
• The Capitals had 16 turnovers in the final two periods.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

• The 'Ry and Ginger' Line were terrific!
• The Canucks forecheck took over in the final two periods.
• The Capitals goaltender Micheal Neuvith kept the game close.
  
• The Canucks could not take full advantage of their high number of SC's.
  
• This was especially true on the power play where the team had 9 chances and 16 shots.
  

Feel free to add comments and questions below!