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Thursday's Numbers: Detroit's streak

By Cham Chimmons

Vancouver is in Detroit tonight. Detroit have won 23* games in a row at home.

Obviously, there is a reason for this. Is the team excellent at home or is it just percentages?

Unfortunately, I can't single out every single game during the streak (only 20, because the excellent timeonice scripts are about a week behind) but that gives us a bit of insight. According to Behind The Net, Detroit are a 60.8% Fenwick team at home with the score tied. If you let that link load, it shows they are 60.9%. So obviously in their last three games (Dallas, Nashville, San Jose) they are cruising along just as well.

[If I just went in manually to the play-by-play scripts this would be easier, but I don't really feel like I need to]

Anyhow, if you let this second link load, you'll see that during the streak, Detroit has:

Tied Score Overall 5v5
Shooting Percentage 8.0% 12.0%
Save Percentage 92.6% 95.3%
PDO 100.6% 107.3%

Basically, they have been lights out overall percentage-wise, but not with the score tied. Detroit earned 64% of the goals (16 for, 9 against) at score tied during the first 20 games of the streak, but 76.5% of the overall goals.

Last thing, if we take every game here and not just the first 20, and include all strengths and situations, Detroit has scored 92 and allowed 34. Remembering Pythagorean Expectation, that gives them "expected win" total of 20. On two occasions, they only scored two goals, while on two occasions, they gave up three. So, with a fancy coin flip, there may be the chance for somebody to end their streak at some point...

...but they have also been excellent. They are not just winning games, but winning big. Still, that overall PDO is bound to drop, even if they're a fantastic score-tied team.

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