Thursday's Number: 54.3 - Redux

There was movement in the Western Conference standings from December 1st last season to the final day. 14 teams were displaced, moving either up or down the table, with the exception of the Edmonton Oilers, who had a conference-low 18 points after November and a conference-low 62 points once the dust settled on April.

54.3% is the Canucks Fenwick percentage with the score tied; it is the true talent of this Vancouver Canucks' team. With the score tied, the Canucks will earn 54.3% of all shots and missed shots at even strength, which will end up Their success in controlling possession is paying off, what with the Canucks winning five straight and finally shooting better, as Semi_Colon will note.

Indeed, the Canucks are one of the few teams in the league that has consistently shown an ability to shoot the puck in the net at a higher rate than their opponents, finishing in the top five in the league in this statistical category in the last three seasons. Either way, after shooting just 6.6% through the first 20 games and recording a PDO of 97.5%, the Canucks in recent days have shot up to a more normal shooting percentage of 8.2% and their PDO has crept up to even.

What has really happened in recent days is, the effect of what I predicted here:

They are a much better team than the record indicates, which is good, because being on pace for just 90 points, they aren't on a playoff pace just yet. But if the team continues to play like they have all season, the percentages will continue to balance out, and the team will be just fine in the long run.

When we look at the Western Conference standings from last season, we can easily see that a team's tied Fenwick number after December has a much greater ability to predict the teams final spot in the standings than their point total after December:

(For you math folks, the r-squared is .35)

The team's tied Fenwick score at the end of November predicted the top three teams in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, goaltending, hockey's great equalizer, came back to bite St. Louis and Columbus in the rear—they were better teams than their record indicated. Despite a couple of outliers at one or two ends of the table, we can see that FenTied does an adequate enough job at predicting point totals at the end of the year, much less than a team's point total after November does:

(For you math folks, the r-squared is .18)

Nashville, San Jose and Los Angeles all turned it around after November and their records more reflected their strong possession stats than their production after 20-or-so games. Vancouver shot up the standings after a percentage explosion. Dallas and Colorado tumbled when poor play caught up with them.

Basically, what I've attempted to show here is that judging team standings after November is tricky, and every time somebody says "yeah, well 70% of teams in playoff position after November make it, so we, the Ottawa Senators/Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild/Toronto Maple Leafs/Los Angeles Kings have a sure shot of making it", a puppy somewhere, dies. (Although the puppy death may be unrelated to the statement. Correlation does not imply causation)

The current wins are the effect of a strong PDO. It doesn't mean it's sustainable (but the Canucks entire season is, to this point at even strength). Remember, after their hot, 7-0 start, the Washington Capitals had a PDO of 106.5%. The percentages don't necessarily favour the best teams, and the Capitals, despite being one of the best FenTied teams in the league, have yet to regain their form, even after firing their coach.

(h/t to BTN and TOI for all the stuff, as per usual)