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The Noon Number: 20


Not a big post today as I have a couple more projects to take care of, but I want to turn to something that I mentioned yesterday in a post about Cody Hodgson: He's on pace for 20 goals. HockeyReference has his "seasonal adjusted" goal total at 23, after having 3 goals in 12 games. The other thing to note? Hodgson hasn't been doing it with an elevated shooting percentage; 10% of his shots have become goals thus far.

Working against him, however, is that no Canuck since Daniel Sedin at the age of 21 or younger (Hodgson counts as a "Hockey 21") has scored 20 or more goals in a season. Before that, it was Pavel Bure and Peter Nedved in 2003. Trevor Linden, Cam Neely, well, hell, you check the list.

Since Sedin hit 20 on the nose, we shoul go back and check and see that Daniel Sedin had 4 goals in his first 12 games on 26 shots. He very consistently put up one goal every three games played until mid-November, when he put together a two-game goal streak. However he had just 26 shots through his first 12 games, and Hodgson has 30. Of course, as Vancouver-radio callers circa-every-pre-lockout-year are quick to mention, the Sedins got a lot of opportunity. Hodgson may be the odd-man out of the top-nine when Mason Raymond returns to the team, even though he has been quietly excellent with some strong two-way numbers thus far.

So I posit the question. Can Hodgson crack 20 goals? Yea, or Nay?

(Added perspective. I looked through some old boxscores out of curios for Pavel Bure's first 12 games in his 21-year old season; 57 shots yielded 11 goals including two ten shot games. In one of those games he had four goals, in another he had three.)