Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #31 Canucks vs. Coyotes

Rich Lam

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-2 ot victory over the Coyotes .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

1

3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0

2

5 4 5 4 0 0 0 0

3

5 7 5 7 0 0 0 0

OT

3 1 3 1 0 0 0 0

OVR

16 15 16 15 0 0 0 0

SCORING CHANCE AREA

Scoring_chances_medium

{*From BroadStreetHockey.com}

  • Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
  • It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
  • It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
  • They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
  • For example: screened shots and/or chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
  • There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.

** {I have some exciting new stats and analysis I am working on. However, in order to balance my workload I will not be posting individual scoring chance data fro the next few games.I will be tabulating season totals most likely at the halfway mark}.

  • Good News:
  • There wasn't much positive about the Canucks' performance.
  • I was thoroughly unimpressed by this game, especially given its obvious importance.
  • Bad News
  • The SC totals were even.
  • However, the Coyotes had the higher quality chances.
  • I was expecting the Canucks to win this battle.
  • The Canucks continue to give up far too many 'rush' chances.
  • The Power plays on both teams were ineffective even though Vancouver did score.

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


PHOENIX


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

13
39

33%


17
33

52%

2

17
34

50%


14
26

54%

3

18
37

49%


25
44

57%








48
109

44%


56
103

54%

  • OZE% confirms the Coyotes won the neutral zone battle.
  • We can clearly see Phoenix dominated the 1st and 3rd periods.
  • This is the main reason why they had the more dangerous chances.
  • I'm hoping fatigue was the cheif reason for the Canucks terrible performance.
  • Coach Torts echoed this point in his post-game comments.
  • He noted the teams' 'gap' between D and forwards  -
  • - created too much space in the neutral zone. Ah! Ya! I'd say so!
  • Phoenix had a season high total of 51! successful 'carry-ins'! -
  • - Including 26 in the third period!
  • Vancouver had an average total of 28.
  • The Canucks had a high 22 successful 'dump ins' (in 53 att.) for a rate of (42%).
  • However, Vancouver had only 3 dump wins in what was a dreadful third period.
  • The Coyotes had only 7 'dump in' wins out of 35 for a low rate of (20%).
  • Even though the Canucks, as usual, won the dump & chase battle.
  • Phoenix had a contrasting style -no aggressive forecheck and plug the neutral zone.
  • Their approach was the clear victor last night.

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


VANCOUVER


PHOENIX


Period

Successful

Attempted

Successful

Attempted

1

23
46

50%


16
36

44%

2

17
26

65%


17
40

43%

3

13
37

35%


20
38

53%









Total

53
109

49%


53
114

46%

  • It was an even game in terms of DZE%
  • Both teams were below the average 50% mark.
  • The Canucks best period was the 2nd. (This matches the 'eye-test').
  • Again we see just how bad the third period was.Yuck!
  • And, the Canucks were below average in DZE% again.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


VANCOUVER

PHOENIX


TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


3.3 = 2.6 (.2) {0} [ .5]

3.9 = 3.5 (.2) {..15}

Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Phoenix 4 - Vancouver 3

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3.7.
  • Luongo's rating was a +1.7. (B+)
  • Mike Smith had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of  ~3.
  • Smith's rating was 0. (C)
  • Yeah! The Canucks won the goaltending battle by ~ 1.7 goals.

TURNOVERS (Even Strength)

  • Vancouver had their usual high total of 27 turnovers.
  • The Coyotes also had an high total of 24 turnovers.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  • Luongo was very solid.
  • Once again the Canucks could not hold their opponent to 0 or 1 goal against.
  • The average NHL team does this 23% of the time or ~20 games a season.
  • The Canucks have done it ONLY 3 times so far this season!
  • The Canucks ES goals against is the single biggest decline on the team since 2011.
  • What makes matters worse is the other 8 western teams the Canucks are -
  • - battling against have above average defensive records in this stat (except the Coyotes).

  • As I stated last post, Vancouver has yet to demonstrate that they can -
  • - shut the door defensively, or, with top goaltending versus strong teams.
  • To illuminate this point I offer one addition stat.
  • In the great run of 2011 to the finals -
  • Vancouver managed 8 wins (out of 15) by only scoring 2 goals or less in regulation!
  • They were a much better defensive team than an offensive one!
  • There has been far too much talk on  radio and in the media-
  • - about the teams' percieved lack of goal scoring.
  • The team desperatley needs a true third 'shutdown' center.
  • The power play (as I predicted)  'has' come alive 7 for 7...and counting!
  • This game was defintly a point lost or given to the Coyotes that might prove costly?!

Feel free to comment below!

Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned  this way when I started!

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)

Fenwick-graph-2013-12-06-coyotes-canucks_medium

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