Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #30 Canucks vs. Predators

Frederick Breedon

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-1 victory over the Predators .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

NSH

VAN

NSH

VAN

NSH

VAN

NSH

1

0
4
0
4
0
0
0
0

2

10
7
7
6
3
0
0
1

3

7
4
4
3
3
1
0
0

OT

N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

OVR

17
15
11
13
6
1
0
1

SCORING CHANCE AREA

Scoring_chances_medium

{*From BroadStreetHockey.com}

  • Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
  • It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
  • It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
  • They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
  • For example: screened shots and/or chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
  • There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.
  • Good News:
  • The power play created 6 chances and finally got rewarded.
  • The Canucks came alive in the 2nd half of the game recording a 16-7 SCD edge.
  • In many ways this game was the reverse of those frustrating Canuck losses.
  • Coach Tortorella echoed this and said what I have been saying for many posts...
  • "The team played better during the homestand and lost...then they did in this game."
  • Such is hockey and its 'puck luck' variance.
  • Bad News
  • The Canucks started very very slowly!
  • Vancouver managed only one chance in the first half of the game. (8-1 SCD NSH).
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 19:26 Hornqvist 3 12 24 27 39 59 1 5 17 20 23 25 5v5
    Home 1 8:57 Wilson rush, neat Hamhuis 3 12 27 33 39 59 1 2 8 22 25 33 5v5
    Home 1 3:58 Stalsberg - rush 2 on 1 4 11 25 39 57 64 1 3 17 18 20 36 5v5
    Home 1 2:19 Smith , one timer, turnover Tanev 7 13 15 39 42 47 1 2 7 8 15 32 5v5
    Away 2 18:12 Santorelli rush ms, takeaway H. Sedin 3 11 25 33 39 59 1 3 18 25 32 33 5v5
    Home 2 15:50 Fisher , pp one timer 3 11 12 27 39 59 1 2 3 15 25 5v4
    Home 2 14:47 Henrdicks rush 4 26 33 39 57 59 1 7 8 18 22 33 5v5
    Home 2 12:27 Cullen lost puck battle Kes 4 7 13 15 39 64 1 5 8 17 20 36 5v5
    Home 2 11:02 Legwand beat Richardson 11 25 39 42 47 57 1 8 15 18 25 32 5v5
    Away 2 8:57 Higgins backhand created by Kesler 4 7 13 15 39 64 1 3 17 18 20 25 5v5
    Away 2 8:56 Santorelli rebound 4 7 13 15 39 64 1 3 17 18 20 25 5v5
    Away 2 8:45 D. Sedin deflection 3 12 27 33 39 59 1 2 7 8 22 33 5v5
    Home 2 7:42 Legwand rush 11 25 39 42 47 57 1 5 15 18 32 36 5v5
    Away 2 6:30 Garrison - pp screen Kesler 3 26 28 39 59 1 2 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Home 2 4:56 Stalberg rush 3 11 25 39 57 59 1 2 3 15 32 36 5v5
    Away 2 4:37 Weise - Richardson puck battle won 3 7 13 15 39 59 1 5 8 15 32 36 5v5
    Away 2 4:37 Richardson (Goal) rebound 3 7 13 15 39 59 1 5 8 15 32 36 5v5
    Home 2 4:10 Wilson (Goal) bad rebound Luongo 3 12 27 33 39 59 1 5 7 8 22 33 5v5
    Away 2 2:06 Booth - ind. effort 4 24 26 28 39 64 1 3 17 18 20 25 5v5
    Away 2 1:22 Hamhuis pp one timer , pass H. Sedin 3 26 28 39 59 1 2 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Away 2 0:12 Garrison pp pass H. Sedin 26 28 39 59 64 1 2 5 7 17 33 4v5
    Home 3 19:11 Wilson ms 12 27 33 39 42 64 1 2 3 17 20 25 5v5
    Home 3 17:35 Spalding puck battle lost Bieksa 13 15 28 39 42 47 1 3 15 18 32 36 5v5
    Away 3 15:40 Santorelli , puck battle won Kesler 4 11 25 39 57 64 1 5 8 17 20 25 5v5
    Away 3 12:24 Kesler (Goal) banl of opposition 4 11 25 39 57 64 1 3 5 17 20 25 5v5
    Home 3 10:27 Nystrom 3 24 28 39 59 1 2 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Away 3 9:44 D. Sedin pp ms 3 12 13 39 59 1 2 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Home 3 7:20 Wilson - off rush 3 12 27 33 39 59 1 2 7 8 22 33 5v5
    Away 3 6:41 Kesler pp rush 3 13 24 39 59 1 3 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Away 3 5:46 Kesler pp 26 28 39 42 64 1 3 5 17 22 33 4v5
    Away 3 4:47 Higgins 3 12 15 33 39 59 1 8 15 18 20 25 5v5
    Away 3 3:13 Higgins 2 on 1 rush 4 7 13 15 39 42 1 3 5 17 20 25 5v5

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 11 13 6 1 0 1
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 21:41 1 5 03:35 4 1 02:27 0 1
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 16:56 6 4 03:58 2 0 01:13 0 1
    5 GARRISON, JASON 18:00 5 4 05:42 6 1 00:09 0 0
    7 BOOTH, DAVID 13:54 1 4 02:20 1 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 20:18 5 7 01:51 0 0 02:01 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 13:23 3 5 00:00 0 0 02:10 0 1
    17 KESLER, RYAN 14:19 6 4 05:29 6 1 01:13 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 13:49 5 5 00:00 0 0 00:56 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 15:30 7 4 02:19 0 0 01:13 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 16:24 1 4 04:58 5 1 00:00 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 07:28 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 18:09 8 4 02:19 0 0 02:10 0 1
    32 WEISE, DALE 11:41 3 5 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 15:57 2 4 05:14 6 1 00:00 0 0
    36 HANSEN, JANNIK 12:53 2 5 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • Mike Santorelli was a stand out again. He led the way with an 8-4 SCD!
  • Santorelli has been truly amazing. It is very rare that a fringe, low-budget player is able to play Top  6 minutes and dominate the chance battle for 30 NHL games?!
  • Higgins and Kelser were also strong. They were a combined 13 -8 in ES SCD.
  • As I said at the beginning of the season, "Of Course, Kesler would be back?!"
  • HE...WAS...JUST...INJURED!
  • Also, Kesler is the ONLY player I can find in the league -
  • - that plays Top (TOI) in all three game states (PP/Pk?ES).
  • It's really great to see most of  Vancouver media eating humble pie.
  • They have an ignorant habit of evaluating hockey players/staff based on personality.
  • (Clouiter, AV, Gillis, Kesler, 'early' Luongo, 'later' Luongo, etc...).
  • The Sedin twins had a rare rough night.
  • They were ineffective most of the night and they were 2-8 at ES SCD.
  • Dan Hamhuis also struggled playing versus his old team.
  • Patrick Hornqvist and  Joe Piskula were the best Predators. {who?!}
  • They had a 9-1 ES SCD.
  • 9+ years in the league and the Nashville "No-Names" are still irrelevant.

Statistical Three Stars.

  1. Ryan Kelser {12-5 total SCD}.
  2. Roberto Luongo {+1.5 EGA}
  3. Mike Santorelli

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


NASHVILLE


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

15 31

48%


15 34

44%

2

14 23

61%


12 23

51%

3

14 21

66%


13 29

45%





Total

43 75

57%


40 86

47%

  • OZE% confirms the flow that the scoring chance data showed.
  • We can clearly see Vancouver took the game over in the final two periods.
  • It's great to see the Canucks with +60% OZE% the mark of an elite team.
  • The Canucks had a low total of 23 successful 'carry-ins'.
  • The Canucks had a high 21 successful 'dump ins' (in 40 att.) for a  terrific rate of (51%).
  • Nashville had a high total of 34 'carry ins'.
  • However, their lack of top off. skill meant they didn't create the expected # of scoring chances.
  • The Predators had only 6 'dump in' wins out of 38 for a putrid rate of (16%).
  • The Canucks dominated the puck battles decisively.

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


VANCOUVER


NASHVILLE


Period

Successful

Attempted

Successful

Attempted

1

14 35

40%


11 36

31%

2

10 21

48%


15 29

52%

3

10 27

37%


12 20

60%





Total

33 83

39%


38 85

45%

  • Although Nashville was the better team in terms of DZE% -
  • Both teams were below the average 50% mark.
  • The Canucks did play with only five D-men the last 40 minutes.
  • The Canucks consistently below average DZE% clearly shows -
  • That the team misses a Christian Erhoff type of puck carrying defencemen.
  • Alexander Edler has really fallen short of his potential in this area.
  • Of Course, the Predators missed their all-star Stud D-man, BC native - Shea Weber.
  • As an aside, it seems that the lower the total DZE% -
  • -The less entertaining the game is to watch.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


VANCOUVER

NASHVILLE


TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


2.9 = 2.2 (.7) {0}

2.5 = 2.3 (.1) {.1}

Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - Nashville 2

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.5.
  • Luongo's rating was a +1.5. (B+)
  • Marek Mazanec had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of  ~2.9.
  • Mazanec's rating was -.1 (C)
  • Yeah! The Canucks won the goaltending battle by ~ 1.6 goals.

TURNOVERS (Even Strength)

  • Vancouver had a lower total of 16 turnovers.However, Nashville had an anemic forecheck.
  • The Predators had an high total of 24 turnovers.
  • I repeat.... Nashville obviously missed Weber badly.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  • Luongo was very solid.
  • It was only the third game that the Canucks held their opponent to 0 or 1 goal against.
  • Unfortunately, the three teams they shut down were:
  • The sad sack Leafs, the even worse Sabres...
  • And, the Tooth-less Predators.
  • It should be obvious to enlightend Canuck fans that -
  • The team can dominate offensively even versus good teams (in terms of scoring chances).
  • ....especially if their Power play kicks in to gear!
  • However, and conversely, they have yet to demonstrate that they can...
  • ...shut the door defensively, or, with top goaltending versus strong teams.
  • The Power play (as I predicted)  'has' come alive 6 for 6...and counting!

The next  two games ARE very important. Phoenix, and to a lesser extent Colorado, are my two picks to fall off their 'hot' pace. Vancouver simply must win the seasons series with these two teams. If they do this the research says they will improve their playoff chances significantly.! Phoenix will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. It IS virtually a MUST win! (With 50+ games to go?! :) ) Will we see the  NHL refs  favor PHX? - And, work hard to help out a new, sunbelt US owner?...Stay Tuned!

Feel free to comment below!

Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned  this way when I started!

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)

Fenwick-graph-2013-12-03-canucks-predators2_medium

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker