Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #28 Canucks vs. Rangers

Al Bello

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 5-2 loss to the Rangers .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

NYR

VAN

NYR

VAN

NYR

VAN

NYR

1

8

4

7
2
1
1
0
1

2

4

6

4
4
0
2
0
0

3

8

5

8
5
0
0
0
0

OT

N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

OVR

20

15

19
11
1
3
0
1

SCORING CHANCE AREA

Scoring_chances_medium

{*From BroadStreetHockey.com}

  • Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
  • It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
  • It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
  • They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
  • For example: screened shots and/or chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
  • There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.
  • Good News:
  • Surprisingly, the Canucks won the chance battle decisively.
  • Vancouver started very strong with an 8-3 first period SCD.
  • And, for what it's worth, Vancouver ended the game,(during garbage time), strong as well.
  • On the prevention side, it was an average game at even strength.
  • Bad News
  • It's frustrating for Canuck fans to hear but  -
  • There really wasn't any bad news from a scoring chance point of view.
  • The penalty kill 'was' burned twice,but, on only 3 total chances against.
  • The team was done in again by sub-par goaltending and a lack of finishing on their chances.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 14:50 D. Sedin - pp, deflection ,ms 5 18 22 33 62 1 5 17 22 23 33 4v5
    Home 1 14:26 Brassard - rush , turnover Burrows 5 18 21 22 33 1 5 17 22 23 33 4v5
    Away 1 9:24 Weise , deflection ms 4 15 22 33 44 67 1 3 14 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 1 9:16 Burrows, 4 15 22 33 44 67 1 3 14 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 1 9:15 Bieksa 4 15 22 33 44 67 1 3 14 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 1 8:53 Hesdin, rush pass from D. Sedin 4 5 20 21 33 61 1 3 14 22 23 33 5v5
    Home 1 7:25 Kreider (Goal) turnover by Edler 20 21 27 33 44 61 1 8 9 15 23 29 5v5
    Away 1 6:40 Santorelli - rush 6 27 28 33 36 62 1 5 7 18 25 32 5v5
    Away 1 5:06 Higgins , rush 5 16 19 24 27 33 1 3 5 17 20 36 5v5
    Home 1 3:07 Kreider , (goal) deflection pp 19 20 21 27 33 61 1 2 8 17 20 5v4
    Away 1 0:48 Higgins deflection 5 16 18 19 24 33 1 2 3 17 20 36 5v5
    Home 1 0:08 Nash deflection 6 18 20 21 33 61 1 5 8 14 22 33 5v5
    Home 2 19:44 Nash (Goal) deflection 5 20 21 27 33 61 1 2 8 14 22 33 5v5
    Home 2 17:33 Zuccerello deflection 5 27 28 33 36 62 5 7 18 25 31 32 5v5
    Away 2 16:12 H. Sedin 6 20 21 27 33 61 2 3 14 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 2 14:42 Booth 4 24 28 33 44 62 2 7 8 17 31 32 5v5
    Away 2 11:03 Kesler 4 28 33 36 44 62 2 8 14 17 20 31 5v5
    Home 2 10:15 McDonagh 19 20 21 27 33 61 2 3 17 20 31 5v4
    Home 2 10:12 Del Zotto pp screen 19 20 21 27 33 61 2 3 17 20 31 5v4
    Home 2 6:25 Higgins 4 20 21 33 44 61 5 9 15 18 29 31 5v5
    Away 2 4:10 Booth, rush pass Santorelli 5 20 21 27 33 61 2 3 14 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 2 0:56 Brassard 5 16 19 24 27 33 2 8 14 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 3 19:06 Kreider rush 6 19 20 24 27 33 2 7 8 25 31 32 5v5
    Home 3 15:53 Brassard giveaway Tanev 6 18 24 33 62 2 7 8 31 33 4v4
    Away 3 15:14 Booth 18 33 36 44 62 3 7 23 31 36 4v4
    Away 3 12:52 Higgins 6 16 18 19 24 33 8 17 18 20 31 36 5v5
    Home 3 10:23 Krieder (goal) deflection puck battle Nash 6 18 20 21 33 61 3 9 15 23 29 31 5v5
    Home 3 8:35 Zuccerello ms turnover Hamhuis 4 22 33 36 44 62 2 8 22 25 31 32 5v5
    Away 3 7:54 Burrows, rush pass H. Sedin 4 6 15 22 33 67 3 14 22 23 31 33 5v5
    Away 3 7:50 Richardson off faceoff 4 15 22 33 44 67 5 9 15 18 29 31 5v5
    Away 3 6:44 Bieksa ms pass Higgins 6 18 21 28 33 61 3 17 20 23 31 36 5v5
    Away 3 6:29 Higgins deflection 6 18 21 28 33 61 3 17 20 23 31 36 5v5
    Away 3 6:10 Weise ms 6 18 21 28 33 61 2 7 8 25 31 32 5v5
    Away 3 5:36 H. sedin deflection 5 16 19 24 27 33 5 14 18 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 3 2:35 D. Sedin (goal) rebound 4 28 33 36 44 62 5 7 9 15 18 31 5v5
    Home 3 2:16 Zucerello (goalpost) 4 28 33 36 44 62 5 7 9 15 18 31 5v5

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 7 3 1 1 0 1
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 19:30 6 5 01:21 0 0 01:10 0 3
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 19:23 12 1 01:40 0 0 01:30 0 2
    5 GARRISON, JASON 18:07 5 4 01:04 1 1 00:52 0 0
    7 BOOTH, DAVID 16:09 5 4 00:37 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 18:55 4 7 00:06 0 0 00:27 0 1
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 09:59 2 4 00:05 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 14:47 9 3 00:59 0 0 00:53 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 11:07 2 4 00:28 0 0 00:42 0 0
    17 KESLER, RYAN 14:36 7 0 01:00 1 1 01:29 0 3
    18 STANTON, RYAN 17:08 5 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 13:11 6 0 00:35 0 0 01:18 0 3
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 15:58 8 4 01:00 1 1 00:38 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 15:39 8 2 01:29 1 1 01:39 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 14:06 2 3 01:17 0 0 00:00 0 0
    29 SESTITO, TOM 07:13 1 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    31 LACK, EDDIE 13 8 0 0 0 2
    32 WEISE, DALE 13:37 3 3 00:38 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 14:04 8 4 01:00 1 1 00:38 0 0
    36 HANSEN, JANNIK 16:59 6 0 00:51 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • The Twins and Ryan Kesler were outstanding with a 23-8 combined ES SCD.
  • Amazingly, Alex Edler was a +6. However, he did have an obvious lazy turnover.
  • WOW. Maybe Torts should bench Eddie more often?!
  • Kevin Bieksa had a ridiculous 12-1 SCD.
  • Bieksa has quietly put together a very strong season.
  • Alex Burrows continues to do everything right - except score.
  • Variance is a strange animal - His luck will turn - I must need a larger voodoo doll?!
  • It is incredible how poor or terrific goaltending performances can distort our perspective on how well we think a hockey team played in any individual game!
  • Chris Kreider was the best New York Ranger. He was 9-3 in overall SCD
  • Of course, Krieder also got rewarded on the boxscore stats with the hat trick.

Statistical Three Stars.

  1. Chris Krieder
  2. Kevin Bieksa
  3. Cam Talbot (+1.5} EGA.

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


NY RANGERS


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

16

29

55%


11

30

37%

2

21

36

52%


20

35

57%

3

13

30

43%


13

21

61%









Total

50

95

53%


44

86

52%

  • The Canucks dominated the first period. {I really liked their first two periods}.
  • The Rangers OZE% improved in the 2nd and 3rd, most likely from having the big lead.
  • The Canucks had a season high 46 successful 'carry-ins'! {16 in the first period!}.
  • The Canucks had only 11 successful 'dump ins' (in 41 att.) for a low rate of (25%).
  • New York also had a high total of 35 'carry ins'.
  • The Rangers had only 11 'dump in' wins out of 40 for a lower rate of (25%).
  • The forecheck and puck battles were not a factor in this game.

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


VANCOUVER


NY RANGERS


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

11

30

37%


15
37

41%

2

23
31

74%


25
38

66%

3

15
26

57%


9
27

33%









Total

49
87

56%


49
102

48%

  • The Rangers forecheck caused the Canucks' DZE% to be low in the 1st.
  • New York 'did' forced 11 failed attempts by Vancouver.
  • However, it was a 'net loss' strategy.
  • It allowed the Canucks to win the SCD battle by a large margin.
  • We also see the Rangers had a low DZE% in the third, as they sat back with the lead.
  • And, accordingly, the Canucks DZE% increased in the final two periods as the Rangers clearly changed their neutral zone strategy once getting ahead.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


VANCOUVER

NY RANGERS


TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


4.1 = 4  (.1) {0}

3.2 = 2.5 (.5) {.2}

Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 4 - New York 3.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of  ~1.1.
  • Luongo's rating was -1.9.
  • Eddie Lack had an {EGA} of ~ 1.5.
  • Lack's rating was - .5.
  • Cam Talbot had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of  ~3.5.
  • Talbot's Rating was + 1.5.
  • The Canucks lost the goaltending battle by ~ 4 goals.

TURNOVERS (Even Strength)

  • Once again, Vancouver had their usual a high total of 25 turnovers.
  • The Rangers also had an high total of 22 turnovers in a sloppy game.

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  • The opposing teams' goaltender again played better than Lui.
  • I said previously that the Canucks are falling behind in too many games.
  • They have only score first in 10! out of 29 games.
  • One reason 'is' the lack of power play scoring and lack of finishing their chances.
  • The other reason is a dramatic drop in goaltending performance.
  • Luongo's SVE % is currently .912. That's in the bottom third among starting goalies.
  • His 1st period save% is ~.891!
  • And, the teams' even strength sve% when the score is tied is .911 ~25TH in the league.
  • By comparison, the Canucks have been in the top 4 in this stat for the last four years!!
  • Surprisingly, last year, the Canucks were actually number one in the league (.948).
  • Anyone else miss Cory Schneider?!
  • To make matters worse, opposing goalies have a ~ .945 ES sve% (tied) against us!
  • It is amazing that the team 'has' won as many games as they have.
  • On the offensive side, maybe the Canucks know they are hard pressed to make the playoffs this year so they are feeling the pressure more this year when they get chances? Time for the 'Mind Room" boys?!

On the defensive side, we know that the team is not giving up an increased number of scoring chances from previous years. In fact, if anything, the Canucks are actually giving up fewer chances per game this season.

So by my deduction, here are the possibilities:

a) Torts new system is giving up higher quality chances.

Perhaps, but over 25+ games its the cumulative value of the total chances giving up and the Canucks are actually giving up their lowest shot total in 10 years (since the dead puck era of 2003-2004). As well, Torterella's aggressive forecheck and shot blocking system didn't seem to harm Henrik Lundqvist?!  - A perennial Vezina candidate and winner,  with a career elite save %. Moreover, if the coaching system 'was' a significant factor wouldn't we see a spike in the Rangers stats under AV?! Nope! The Rangers are currently 23rd this year right in front of Vancouver. The Rangers have dropped as well, (they were 15th, 7th, and 9th in the three previous years under Torts).

b) Luongo's performance has dropped due to age.

My feelings are clear from previous posts. This 'is' a significant issue even if the mainstream media is slow to the mark. In fact, Donny Taylor, and Johnny Garret of SportsNet and others are still calling Lui the best Canuck this year?! In fact, we saw a similar dip from Martin Brodeur around this age. However, I will add that facing fewer shots can be an adjustment fro some goalies and is something Lui hasn't had to deal with until this year.

c) There 'is' some bad luck involved and these numbers will even out somewhat.

I believe this is small factor.

d) They are facing stronger quality teams.

I also believe this could be a a small factor but doubt that it would be a large effect. I would have to run the numbers to find out.

Feel free to comment below!

Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned  this way when I started!

SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

(courtesy of extraskater.com)

Fenwick-graph-2013-11-30-canucks-rangers_medium

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