Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #17 Canucks vs. Coyotes

Shootouts really suck.... - Christian Petersen

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-2 ot loss to the Coyotes.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

VAN

PHX

1

3

6

3

2

0

4

0

0

2

4

4

3

3

1

1

0

0

3

5

6

4

6

1

0

0

0

4

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

OVR

13

16

11

11

2

5

0

0

  • Good News: It was an even game on the road versus a division rival.
  • The Canucks gave up an average number of chances (5 on 5).
  • Overall, I expected more, so, I was unimpressed by the Canucks' performance.
  • Bad News: The Canucks basically played a passive and safe 'roll the dice' game.
  • The Canucks did not really force the issue or pressure the Coyotes.
  • As a result, the Canucks failed to generate enough high quality scoring chances.
  • The Canucks gave up an above average number of chances while shorthanded.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 18:45 Vrbata - deflection -turnover Tanev 4 16 18 28 41 63 1 5 9 15 23 49 5v5
    Home 1 16:54 Vrbata - pp 3 11 17 23 41 63 1 2 8 17 20 5v4
    Home 1 16:36 Vrbatta - ms - pp 3 11 17 23 41 63 1 3 15 23 25 5v4
    Home 1 14:29 Ribeiro - pp, post turnover Hanhuis 3 11 17 23 41 63 1 3 15 23 25 5v4
    Home 1 13:27 Doan - pp 3 19 23 41 50 89 1 2 8 22 33 5v4
    Away 1 11:00 Kassian - ms 3 12 18 41 53 63 1 2 8 9 15 22 5v5
    Home 1 9:59 Doan - deflection ms 4 11 16 17 19 41 1 5 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Away 1 2:53 Higgins - ms 11 16 19 26 41 89 1 5 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Away 1 2:05 Santorelli- deflection -ms 4 11 16 17 19 41 1 8 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Home 2 19:20 Hanzel - 11 17 19 23 26 41 1 2 8 17 22 33 5v5
    Away 2 17:23 H. Sedin - deflection - ms 3 12 24 26 29 41 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 2 15:45 Kesler - pp - one timer 3 16 18 19 41 63 1 5 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Home 2 13:20 Szwarz - deflection 3 4 12 24 29 41 1 3 13 18 21 29 5v5
    Home 2 11:47 Ekman - Larrson - ms, pp 3 11 17 23 41 63 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
    Away 2 3:57 Higgins - pp 3 11 16 17 28 41 1 3 14 18 20 25 5v5
    Home 2 2:21 Doan - rebound Luongo, error Welsch 4 23 36 41 50 89 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
    Away 2 0:07 Burrows - pp 4 18 23 41 50 1 5 14 17 22 33 4v5
    Home 3 17:37 Moss - beat Hamhuis wide 3 4 18 19 41 63 1 2 8 14 15 49 5v5
    Home 3 17:27 Doan 3 4 18 19 41 63 1 2 8 14 15 49 5v5
    Home 3 14:58 Kelsa - turnover Kesler 3 11 16 17 28 41 1 5 17 20 23 33 5v5
    Away 3 13:39 Richardson - rush , ms 4 18 19 23 41 63 1 3 9 15 23 49 5v5
    Away 3 9:51 Higgins - post 4 11 17 23 28 41 2 8 14 20 25 33 5v5
    Away 3 8:40 D. Sedin - pass H. Sedin , pp 16 18 26 28 41 1 2 14 17 22 33 4v5
    Home 3 5:19 Hanzel - deflection, ms 4 11 17 23 28 41 1 2 8 14 20 25 5v5
    Away 3 4:38 Burrows - puck battle won by Burrows 4 11 17 23 28 41 1 5 14 20 23 25 5v5
    Away 3 2:41 Kesler - ms 3 11 17 26 28 41 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
    Home 3 1:29 Moss - beat, Edler out of position 3 16 18 19 41 63 1 3 15 20 23 25 5v5
    Home 3 1:27 Doan - wraparound 3 16 18 19 41 63 1 3 15 20 23 25 5v5
    Away 4 4:38 Edler - rush 4 on 4 4 23 41 50 89 1 3 22 23 33 4v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 10 11 2 0 0 5
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 18:48 2 4 02:59 1 0 02:52 0 3
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 17:41 3 3 00:00 0 0 02:56 0 2
    5 GARRISON, JASON 19:41 5 4 01:28 1 0 00:12 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 17:02 3 4 00:00 0 0 02:52 0 3
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 11:22 2 1 00:55 0 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 04:46 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 17:11 6 4 03:32 2 0 00:39 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 11:03 2 5 00:00 0 0 02:28 0 3
    17 KESLER, RYAN 19:47 2 3 02:53 2 0 02:20 0 1
    18 STANTON, RYAN 16:44 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:12 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 17:38 6 5 01:34 0 0 02:58 0 1
    21 DALPE, ZAC 03:46 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 19:54 4 2 02:53 2 0 00:45 0 1
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 19:01 8 6 01:34 0 0 02:56 0 2
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 18:25 6 4 01:34 0 0 02:04 0 3
    29 SESTITO, TOM 05:41 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 20:01 4 3 02:53 2 0 00:46 0 1
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 09:48 1 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • The Canucks' Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were the best line.
  • They were 19-13 (combined) in SCD at ES.
  • After that, no Canuck stood out individually.
  • Alexander Edler has a very poor SCD (now -29), so, 8-6 at ES is a small victory.
  • Shane Doan had a 7-4 SCD and Mike Ribeiro a 9-3 in SCD.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Mike Riberio

    2. Roberto Luongo (+1 EPA).

    3. The Coyotes' power play. (It was dangerous).

    Honorable mention Alex Burrows:

    • 8-4 in total SCD and the 'serpentine' move in shootout!
    • I tweeted that I wished the NHL would adopt the junior rules for shooutouts and allow teams to choose the same player repeatedly.
    • My Canuck shootout roster would then be: 1. Burrows 2. Burrows & 3. Burrows 4. Burrows..

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    PHOENIX


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    13

    34

    38%


    11

    29

    38%

    2

    17

    29

    59%


    15

    25

    60%

    3

    9

    26

    35%


    14

    33

    42%









    Total

    39

    89

    44%


    40

    86

    47%

    • OZE% captures a very accurate picture of the flow of the game.
    • The first and third period were shutdown 'boring' Dave Tippett-style hockey.
    • The second period had space, pace and flow and was far more entertaining.
    • By OZE%, the Canucks really struggled in the third period.
    • Could this be the result of fatigue?
    • Or, an inability to crack the Coyotes' tight defensive system?
    • The Canucks had 23 successful 'carry ins', but only 3 in the final period.
    • The Canucks had 15 successful 'dump ins' (out of 43) for an ave. rate of (35%).
    • Phoenix had a high total total of 29 'carry ins'.
    • As a result, the Coyotes were the more dangerous team.
    • The Coyotes had only 10 'dump in' wins out of 40 (25%).
    • The Canucks won the puck battle game again.
    • However, Phoenix's positional system was better at creating carry-ins & turnovers (see below).

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    PHOENIX


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    14

    32

    45%


    13

    29

    45%

    2

    18

    28

    50%


    16

    37

    43%

    3

    15

    33

    44%


    14

    22

    64%









    Total

    47

    93

    50%


    43

    88

    49%

    • Both teams were average in terms of DZE%.
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck had a mild impact in the first two periods.
    • DZE% shows that the Canucks really sat back in the third period.
    • It also shows the ice was tilted in the third period towards the Canuck end.
    • Vancouver had 50% more DZE attempts in the third period (33 to 22).
    • By these numbers, the Canucks were lucky to get out of the third period all square.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    PHOENIX


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}-(TMS)

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH} -(TMS)


    2.2 = 2.0 (.6) {0} [.15] *ot - (.6)

    3.1 = 2.2 (1.5) {0} - (.6)

    • Expected Score suggests: Phoenix should have won the game 3 - 2.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3.1.
    • Mike Smith had an {EGA} of ~ 2.2.
    • Luongo's rating was +1.1 goals.
    • Smith's rating was +.2 goals.
    • Vancovuer won the goaltending battle by almost one full goal.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • The Coyotes won the turnover battle decisively!
    • Vancouver had a season very high total of 31 turnovers.
    • The Coyotes had an average total of 15 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Coyotes' positional system won the battle as Phx created a higher exp. score.
    • Phoenix also forced the Canucks into a very high total of turnovers.
    • Roberto Luongo was the main reason the Canucks got a point in the game.
    • The Canucks continued to create below average scoring chances against better teams.

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-05-canucks-coyotes_medium

    Feel free to comment below!

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