Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #16 Canucks vs. Leafs

No More! No More! - Rich Lam

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 4-0 victory over the Maple Leafs.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

TOR

VAN

TOR

VAN

TOR

VAN

TOR

1

10

6

8

5

2

1

0

0

2

9

5

6

2

3

3

0

0

3

9

4

6

3

2

1

1

0

OVR

28

15

20

10

7

5

1

0

  • Good News: The Canucks offfense was terrific! The highest total this season!
  • Vancouver started very strongly with a 7-0 SCD.
  • The team also won the chance battle for each period decisively.
  • Can the Canucks play eastern teams more often?!
  • Bad News: The Canucks power play failed to capitalize fully on numerous opportunities.
  • Overall, the Canucks surrendered an above average number of chances.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 18:38 Higgins - Takeaway Higgins 1 2 8 14 20 25 15 21 34 43 51 81 5v5
    Home 1 16:11 Santorelli - rush, pass Burrows 1 3 14 18 20 25 4 11 21 34 41 44 5v5
    Home 1 16:07 Higgins - pass and takeaway Santorelli 1 3 14 18 20 25 4 11 21 34 41 44 5v5
    Home 1 16:05 Burrwows - rebound 1 3 14 18 20 25 4 11 21 34 41 44 5v5
    Home 1 15:45 Higgins- pass Burrows 1 3 14 18 20 25 4 11 21 34 41 44 5v5
    Home 1 14:11 D. Sedin - rush pass H. Sedin 1 2 8 17 22 33 3 21 34 43 51 81 5v5
    Home 1 13:58 H. Sedin (Goal) - pass Kesler 1 2 5 17 22 33 3 4 11 34 63 5v4
    Away 1 11:44 Kessel - rush 1 2 8 14 20 25 4 21 34 43 44 81 5v5
    Home 1 10:53 H. Sedin - rush pass D. Sedin 1 3 17 18 22 33 3 11 19 34 36 41 5v5
    Away 1 9:11 Kessel - pass JVR 1 5 14 20 23 25 15 21 34 43 51 81 5v5
    Away 1 7:11 deflection, ms 1 2 8 14 25 3 4 12 19 34 81 4v5
    Away 1 6:35 Rush - Ranger 1 5 17 22 23 33 4 11 15 34 71 81 5v5
    Away 1 5:32 Kadri - rush , ms 1 3 14 18 20 25 11 15 34 36 43 81 5v5
    Away 1 5:08 Raymond rebound 1 5 9 15 23 29 15 23 28 34 38 51 5v5
    Home 1 4:07 Santorelli - rush passs Higgins 1 3 9 18 20 25 4 19 21 34 43 44 5v5
    Home 1 0:45 Kesler rush post 1 2 3 17 22 33 4 21 34 51 63 5v4
    Home 2 17:53 Kassian - pass Richarson 1 2 8 14 20 25 15 21 34 43 51 81 5v5
    Home 2 17:21 Higgins - pass Santorelli 1 2 8 14 20 25 15 21 34 43 51 81 5v5
    Home 2 14:55 Higgins - (Goal) rush, pass Burrows 1 3 6 13 18 29 15 23 28 34 38 51 5v5
    Home 2 14:03 Higgins - ns , off pinch Tanev 1 2 8 14 20 25 4 21 34 43 44 81 5v5
    Home 2 14:00 Burrows Ms Rebound 1 2 8 14 20 25 4 21 34 43 44 81 5v5
    Away 2 8:30 deflection #11 - ms 1 3 9 15 18 49 11 12 34 36 51 71 5v5
    Away 2 6:46 Lupul - pp 1 3 5 15 25 12 19 34 44 51 71 4v5
    Away 2 6:22 Lupul - pp 1 3 5 22 33 12 19 34 44 51 71 4v5
    Away 2 5:41 Kessel - pass JVR 1 2 8 18 20 33 3 4 21 34 43 81 5v5
    Home 2 4:20 D. Sedin - ms - pass H. Sedin 1 5 17 22 23 33 3 11 34 36 5v3
    Home 2 4:05 Garrison - screen pp 1 5 17 22 23 33 3 11 34 36 5v3
    Home 2 3:02 Edler - pp 1 2 3 14 20 25 11 15 34 51 5v3
    Home 2 2:35 Burrows - pass Santorelli 1 2 3 14 20 25 11 15 34 38 51 81 5v5
    Away 2 1:22 JVR - pp 1 2 8 15 25 3 4 21 34 43 81 4v5
    Home 3 18:40 Burrows - pass D. Sedin 1 3 14 18 22 33 11 15 19 34 36 71 5v5
    Away 3 14:56 Kessel - 1 3 17 22 23 33 4 15 34 43 71 81 5v5
    Home 3 13:26 D. Sedin - pp 1 2 5 17 22 33 3 11 34 36 41 5v4
    Home 3 9:59 Kesler - pp 1 3 17 22 23 33 3 11 34 36 41 5v4
    Home 3 6:15 D. Sedin - pass Kesler 1 2 3 17 22 33 3 11 21 34 36 41 5v5
    Home 3 5:41 Welsch - pass Archibauld 1 2 8 13 15 49 19 34 43 44 51 81 5v5
    Home 3 5:35 Hamhuis -(Goal) rebound 1 2 8 13 15 49 19 34 43 44 51 81 5v5
    Away 3 5:05 #11 - rush - beat Weber 1 3 6 13 18 29 11 15 28 34 38 51 5v5
    Home 3 3:46 Burrows 1 2 8 14 25 49 4 19 34 43 44 81 5v5
    Home 3 3:26 Richardson - rebound 1 5 13 15 23 49 3 12 21 34 36 41 5v5
    Away 3 3:11 Raymond - rush 1 5 13 15 23 49 3 12 21 34 36 41 5v5
    Away 3 1:35 Raymond - ms -rush 1 2 8 14 25 3 4 19 21 34 81 4v5

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 20 10 7 0 1 5
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 11:59 11 2 07:06 4 0 04:05 1 3
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 15:52 10 4 05:10 3 0 03:47 0 2
    5 GARRISON, JASON 10:59 1 4 08:50 4 0 01:35 0 2
    6 WEBER, YANNICK 02:46 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 11:09 9 2 00:07 0 0 04:18 1 3
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 09:18 1 2 00:15 0 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 02:57 4 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 11:35 12 3 03:28 1 0 02:09 1 2
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 09:39 3 3 00:03 0 0 02:34 0 2
    17 KESLER, RYAN 12:01 3 2 10:25 6 0 02:42 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 11:42 8 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 13:27 11 4 03:57 1 0 02:35 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 12:07 4 2 10:05 6 0 00:58 0 1
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 15:19 1 5 06:53 3 0 01:59 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 12:24 12 3 04:00 1 0 04:11 1 4
    29 SESTITO, TOM 02:26 1 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 12:37 4 3 10:05 6 0 00:35 0 1
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 09:53 4 2 00:06 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • The Canucks'  Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were amazing!
  • This second line, were an outstanding 35-8 (combined) in SCD at ES.
  • Christopher Tanev, Dan Hamhuis, and Kevin Bieksa also dominated the chance battle!
  • The three defencemen were a combined 30-8 SCD at even strength (ES).
  • On a negative note, somehow Alexander Edler managed  to lose the chance battle again.
  • He was 1-5 in SCD at ES despite registering 12 shots on goal.
  • Edler has reached -30 in chance differential so far this season. How low can he go?
  • Jason Garrison's SCD is also plummeting now playing most of the time with Edler.
  • Last post a fan suggested 'turnstile' as a tag for Eddie? 'Anchor' also fits!
  • I still wonder if Garrison suffered an injury back in the Red Wings game.
  • Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and James Van Reimsdyk were a nightmare defensively.
  • The three Leafs stars were a shocking 10-29 in SCD (combined) at ES.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Chris Higgins

    2. Alexander Burrows

    3. Roberto Luongo (+3 EPA)

    Honorable mention : James Riemer (also + 2..7 EPA)

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    TORONTO


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    21

    24

    88%


    12

    28

    43%

    2

    7

    15

    46%


    9

    18

    50%

    3

    9

    14

    64%


    6

    13

    46%









    Total

    37

    53

    70%


    27

    59

    47%

    • The Canucks obliterated the Leafs in the first period.
    • It is incredible to see just how bad the Leafs defense is!
    • It is disheartening to know the Leafs will likely make the playoffs in the weak east.
    • The OZE% matches the scoring chances and the eye test or flow of the game.
    • The Canucks had 25 successful 'carry ins', and 14 in the 1st period.
    • The Canucks had 12 successful 'dump ins' out of 22 (55%).
    • And, they won 7/8 in the 1st period!
    • Toronto had a respectable total of 23 'carry ins'.
    • The Leafs generated many of their chances off the rush.
    • The Leafs had only 5 'dump in' wins out of 22 (23%).
    • The Canucks won the puck battle decisively.
    • Coach Torterella's aggressive forecheck system was very effective in this game.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    TORONTO


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    10

    22

    45%


    14

    28

    59%

    2

    7

    14

    50%


    6

    17

    35%

    3

    7

    16

    44%


    6

    13

    46%









    Total

    24

    52

    46%


    26

    58

    45%

    • Both teams were slightly below average in terms of DZE%.
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck in the first did allow the Leafs a higher DZE%.
    • It is surprising to me that the Canucks dominance doesn't show up in this start?!
    • The Canucks must have also won the majority of puck battles in the neutral zone?!
    • The Canucks defense seemed content to dump the puck out whenever necessary.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}


    VANCOUVER

    TORONTO


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    7.6  = 5.9 (1.7) {0}

    3.4  = 2.3 (1) {0} 

    • Expected Score suggests: the Canucks should have won the game 8 - 3.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3
    • James Reimer had an {EGA} of ~ 6.7
    • Luongo's rating was +3 goals.
    • Reimer's rating was +2.7 goals.
    • The goaltending battle was basically a  draw as both teams received exceptional performances.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • The Canucks won the turnover battle decisively.
    • Vancouver had a below average total of 12 turnovers - only 5 in the final two periods.
    • The Leafs had an above average total of 23 turnovers- including 12 in the first period!

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was a key difference.
    • Vancouver were able to force Leafs turnovers in the neutral zone.
    • Both teams created significant offense from neutral zone entries.
    • Both goalies were great, and were nearly +6 goals in EGA (combined).
    • The Leafs are a porous defensive team that got away with many obvious infractions.
    • The Leafs could have objectively been shorthanded at least 13 times instead of 7.
    • The Leafs appeared to use the 70's Flyers strategy that 'the refs just won't call it all'.

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    One more treat for Canuck fans (courtesy of extraskater.com)

      Fenwick-graph-2013-11-02-maple-leafs-canucks_1__medium

      Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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