Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #26 Canucks vs. Kings

Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Spor

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 2-1 ot loss to the Kings .

{My apologies, due to computer difficulties I wasn't able to post the stats for the last two games. i have fixed the issue and they will be done this week when I can catch up!}

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

LAK

VAN

LAK

VAN

LAK

VAN

LAK

1

3

6

3

6

0

0

0

0

2

4

2

1

1

3

1

0

0

3

7

2

5

2

2

0

0

0

OT

0
1
0
1
0 0
0 0

OVR

14

11

9

10

5

1

0

0

SCORING CHANCE AREA

Scoring_chances_medium

{*From BroadStreetHockey.com}

  • Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
  • It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
  • It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
  • They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
  • For example: screened shots and/or chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
  • There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.
  • Good News:
  • Surprisingly, there actually wasn't alot positive in the game from a SCD perspective.
  • Bad News
  • The game was close, however, by the eye test, the Kings had the better ES chances.
  • The Kings dominated the first period then they ran into penalty trouble.
  • The Canucks offense created a below average number of chances at ES.
  • Despite their huge shot edge, the Canucks are no longer winning the chance battle.
  • The Canucks' power play 'scoring' continues to be pathetic.
  • Another game where the power play and better goaltending by the Canucks could have got the team  the team a win.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 19:10 Booth, rush,  missed shot 1 2 7 8 17 36 11 14 23 26 44 54 5v5
    Away 1 17:06 Mitchell 1 2 7 8 17 36 6 8 11 14 23 54 5v5
    Away 1 15:14 Stoll, rush 1 5 9 15 18 29 6 8 17 28 54 71 5v5
    Away 1 13:44 Brown, rush 4 on 4 1 2 8 22 33
    6 8 11 23 54
    4v4
    Away 1 9:56 Clifford rush 1 5 9 15 23 29 6 8 13 54 57 73 5v5
    Home 1 8:26 D. Sedin 1 3 14 22 23 33 8 10 33 54 74 77 5v5
    Away 1 6:10 Clifford rush 2 on 1 Stanton pinch 1 3 7 17 23 36 6 8 10 54 74 77 5v5
    Home 1 2:10 Kesler pp ms 1 5 17 22 23 33 11 14 23 26 44 54 5v5
    Away 1 1:55 Williams 1 5 15 17 22 23 11 14 23 27 33 54 5v5
    Home 2 18:29 Kesler rush pp 1 5 17 22 23 33 8 11 23 33 54
    5v4
    Home 2 18:24 Kesler rebound 1 5 17 22 23 33 8 11 23 33 54
    5v4
    Away 2 17:30 Clifford rush deflection 1 2 3 14 20 25 6 13 26 44 54 57 5v5
    Home 2 12:41 H. Sedin pp 1 3 22 23 33
    8 11 28 44 54
    4v4
    Away 2 11:50 Martinez post , pp 1 3 20 23 25
    13 26 27 54 57 73 4v5
    Home 2 0:56 Kesler pp 1 5 17 22 23 33 8 11 33 54 77
    5v4
    Home 3 14:55 D. Sedin ms 1 2 7 8 22 33 8 11 14 23 33 54 5v5
    Home 3 13:50 Higgins deflection ms , pp 1 2 3 14 20 25 26 27 54 74 77
    5v4
    Home 3 13:48 Bieksa ms, pp 1 2 3 14 20 25 26 27 54 74 77
    5v4
    Home 3 13:01 H. Sedin (Goal) screened pp 1 7 8 15 23 32 11 14 23 26 27 54 5v5
    Away 3 7:30 Doughty rebound 1 2 3 20 25 32 11 26 28 44 54 71 5v5
    Home 3 3:08 Booth , rush 1 5 7 17 23 36 10 27 33 54 74 77 5v5
    Home 3 3:07 Hansen rebound 1 5 7 17 23 36 10 27 33 54 74 77 5v5
    Home 3 3:06 Kesler - rebound 1 5 7 17 23 36 10 27 33 54 74 77 5v5
    Away 3 2:54 Richards - Edler bonehead error 1 2 8 20 25 32 11 26 44 54 57 73 5v5
    Away 4 4:13 Kopitar - Bieksa lost puck battle 1 3 17 20 23
    11 23 26 44 54
    4v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV

    PP

    SH

    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO
    9 10
    5 0
    0 1
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 15:44 2 5 05:10 2 0 01:37 0 0
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 16:50 2 4 05:32 2 0 02:30 0 1
    5 GARRISON, JASON 10:41 4 3 08:25 3 0 00:00 0 0
    7 BOOTH, DAVID 13:45 6 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 15:50 3 3 00:00 0 0 01:37 0 0
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 05:35 0 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 10:44 1 1 05:12 2 0 01:10 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 09:21 1 3 00:00 0 0 01:19 0 0
    17 KESLER, RYAN 13:06 5 4 07:30 3 0 01:16 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 07:44 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 11:07 0 4 04:45 2 0 02:08 0 1
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 12:10 4 2 09:12 3 0 00:49 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 18:43 7 4 07:30 3 0 02:09 0 1
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 10:15 0 3 04:48 2 0 01:02 0 1
    29 SESTITO, TOM 05:10 0 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    32 WEISE, DALE 09:39 1 2 00:21 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 12:15 4 1 08:12 3 0 00:51 0 0
    36 HANSEN, JANNIK 11:47 4 2 01:41 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • David Booth had his best game in weeks. He was 7-4 in SCD at ES
  • The Twins were strong. They were a combined 8-3 in SCD at ES.
  • Alex Edler was a +3 for one of the few times this season.
  • However, he continues to play a high risk game.
  • And, Edler's bonehead play on the Kings tying goal was...simply...ridiculous!
  • Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli had rare poor nights. They were 0-6 in ES SCD.
  • No Kings forward stood out in SCD.
  • The virtual unknown Jake Muzzin had a 6-0 SCD for the Kings.
  • Conversely, former Canuck Willie Mitchell was the worst King with a 1-5 SCD.

Statistical Three Stars.

  1. David Booth (Yes I am serious :) ).
  2. Ben Scrivens +1.4 {EGA}.
  3. The Kings Penalty Kill {They were great!}

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    LOS ANGELES


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    11

    30

    37%


    12

    24

    50%

    2

    9

    17

    52%


    4

    11

    36%

    3

    13

    24

    51%


    9

    28

    32%









    Total

    33

    71

    46%


    25

    63

    40%

    • The Kings won the first period in OZE% while the Canucks took over for the final two.
    • Both teams were below average in OZE%.
    • OZE% and the scoring chances are closely aligned in this game.
    • The Kings are a great defensive team so the Canucks poor OZE% is not surprising.
    • The Kings OZE% was effected by all the penalties reducing the total ES time.
    • The Canucks had average total of 24 successful 'carry ins'.
    • The Canucks had 12 successful 'dump ins' (in 33 att.) for a decent rate of (36%).
    • Los Angeles had an average total of 21 'carry ins'.
    • The Kings had only 4 'dump in' wins out of 31 for a lower rate of (13%).
    • However, for another game on the homestand, the Canucks' opponents had a big puck retrievals to set up the deciding goal.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    LOS ANGELES


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    19

    37

    52%


    16

    33

    49%

    2

    6

    10

    60%


    4

    10

    40%

    3

    11

    29

    31%


    12

    28

    43%









    Total

    36

    76

    47%


    32

    71

    45%

    • DZE% also confirms that it was an even game in terms of neutral zone play.
    • Both teams were average in terms of DZE%.
    • DZE% appears to shows that the Canucks tried to play it safe in the third period and just dumped the puck out of the zone.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    LOS ANGELES


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    4= 2.4 (1.6) {(0)}

    2.9 = 2.7 (.2) {.0}

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 4 -  Los Angeles 3.

    {However the Expected Score most likely outcome was 3 -2 LA at even strength!}

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.5.
    • Luongo's rating was -.5.
    • Ben Scrivens had an {EGA} of ~ 3.4.
    • Scrivens' rating was + 1.4.
    • The Canucks lost the goaltending battle by ~2 goals

    TURNOVERS (Even Strength)

    • Once again, Vancouver had their usual a high total of 24 turnovers.
    • The Canucks' turnover rate continues to be the most concerning stat of this team.
    • The Kings also had an high total of 21 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • Special Teams
    • The Canucks power play continues to flounder.
    • The opposing teams' goaltender again played better than Lui.
    • Canuck turnovers continues to be  very high - they simply need to protect the puck more.

    And, for those worried Canuck fans,  in the last 10 games they have a ~57% Pos. F Close rating.They now rank 6th in the league, at ~54% for the season. This is the teams' highest ranking since 2011, when they were third. The short term issue is that possession numbers are only statistically significant with team wins over larger samples 25- 65 games are best.

    Unfortunately, over small samples the two biggest factors that decide games are Goaltending and Special Teams production. Whether Roberto Luongo can return to his 'elite' form is an open question. However, it is now time for GMMG to make a trade to improve the power play. It has now been a large sample and two coaching staff  with no improvement.

    For scoring improvement, I recommend acquiring Mike Cammalleri. He has strong career sh% of 12%. He has been a consistent 25 goal scorer.He has above average powr play numbers. He is 31 (in the same age range as the Canucks other core players). He has played in a tough Canadian market (i.e. Montreal). He has got on a roll in  the playoffs. He is a former client of Mike Gillis and was rumored to be coming to Vancouver a few years back. And, most importantly, I believe, he is Italien! And, I want to hear John Shorthouse of Sports Net struggle on air  with the...." It's a pass from  'Santorelli to Cammarelli' !

    Cammarelli is an unrestricted  free agent (UFA). So, Gillis would need to have a strong indication he could be resigned next year when the salary cap goes up. (No more rental players please!) The Canucks would also have to give back ~ 2.5 million in salary to the Flames. Time to make it happen Mike?! {Hansen? Tanev? and bring Frankie Corrado up...other suggestions?).

    Feel free to comment below!

    Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned a lot this way when I started!

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-25-kings-canucks_medium

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