Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #23 Canucks vs. Panthers

Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Spor

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-2 shootout loss to the Panthers .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

FLA

VAN

FLA

VAN

FLA

VAN

FLA

1

4

8

2

3

2

4

1

1

2

7

3

7

3

1

0

0

0

3

6

3

6

3

0

0

0

0

OT

2 2 2 0 2

OVR

19

16

17

9

3

6

1

1

  • Good News:
  • Surprisingly, The Canucks were better in SCD at (ES).
  • The team actually won the even strength chance battle handily! (17-9).
  • The Canucks offense continues to create a high number of chances.
  • The Canucks are having a run of bad luck, and hot goaltending. The tables 'will' turn.
  • Bad News:
  • The Canucks continue to give up high quality chances early in games.
  • The Canucks also surrendered a high number of quality chances shorthanded.
  • The Canucks Power Play 'scoring' continues to be pathetic.
  • The result is the Canucks are falling behind in too many games.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 17:46 Hayes - rush 1 5 9 15 23 36 12 18 21 51 77 82 5v5
    Away 1 16:18 Horcoff - post, pp 1 3 15 23 25 7 16 19 24 34 51 4v5
    Away 1 16:18 Boyes - goal, rebound pp 1 3 15 23 25 7 16 19 24 34 51 4v5
    Away 1 15:05 Kulikov 1 5 17 20 23 25 7 11 14 27 34 44 5v5
    Away 1 14:58 Kuikov 1 5 17 20 23 25 7 11 14 27 34 44 5v5
    Home 1 13:54 D. Sedin 1 2 8 14 22 33 7 11 14 27 34 44 5v5
    Home 1 10:02 Birrows - wraparound off faceoff 1 2 8 14 22 33 7 16 19 24 34 44 5v5
    Away 1 9:40 Goc - Breakaway - Bieksa & Edler error 1 3 17 22 23 33 22 34 44 57 82 5v4
    Home 1 8:24 D. Sedin , pp 1 2 3 17 22 33 14 19 34 51 77 5v4
    Away 1 7:04 Upshall - deflection 1 8 15 17 23 16 19 24 34 51 77 4v5
    Away 1 6:46 Boyes - 1 8 15 17 23 16 19 24 34 51 77 4v5
    Home 1 5:23 Burrows - post, rush, sh 1 8 14 23 36 17 34 57 77 82 97 4v5
    Home 2 20:00 Burrows - ms puck batlle win D. Sedin 1 3 17 18 20 25 17 34 51 57 77 82 5v5
    Home 2 18:51 H. Sedin - ms 1 2 8 14 22 33 7 11 14 27 34 44 5v5
    Home 2 17:12 Bieksa - deflection ms 1 3 13 18 29 32 12 18 21 34 51 77 5v5
    Home 2 16:36 Santorelli 1 2 8 17 20 25 7 17 34 44 57 82 5v5
    Home 2 16:34 Higgins - Goal , rebound 1 5 14 22 23 33 11 14 27 34 51 77 5v5
    Home 2 13:39 Higgins, rush, pass Santy 1 3 5 17 20 25 14 19 27 34 51 77 5v5
    Away 2 9:13 Flieschmann - rush 1 2 8 17 20 25 11 14 22 27 34 97 5v5
    Home 2 8:14 D. Sedin, rush ms 1 3 14 18 22 33 17 34 51 57 77 82 5v5
    Away 2 5:15 Upshaw 1 5 13 23 29 32 7 16 19 24 34 44 5v5
    Away 2 1:52 Bjustad , rush beat Hamhuis wide 1 2 5 9 15 36 11 14 22 27 34 97 5v5
    Home 3 17:59 Kassian , pass burrows 1 5 9 14 15 23 11 14 16 34 44 97 5v5
    Home 3 17:37 Richardson - post , pass Burrows 1 5 9 14 15 23 11 14 16 34 44 97 5v5
    Home 3 17:16 Hansen - tournover up middle D-men 1 3 18 20 33 36 11 14 16 34 44 97 5v5
    Home 3 15:21 Kesler , ms, deflection 1 2 8 17 22 25 11 16 24 34 51 77 5v5
    Home 3 14:02 Hansen 1 3 18 20 33 36 17 34 51 57 82 97 5v5
    Home 3 12:28 Garrison 1 5 17 22 23 25 17 22 34 57 82 97 5v5
    Away 3 11:26 Matthias Goal off dump win 1 5 17 22 23 25 11 14 27 34 51 77 5v5
    Away 3 7:20 Matthias 1 5 20 23 33 36 7 18 34 44 57 82 5v5
    Away 3 2:23 Bjustad 1 5 20 23 33 36 11 14 22 27 34 97 5v5
    Away 4 2:56 Huberdeau 1 3 17 23 11 27 34 51 77 3v4
    Away 4 2:54 Campbell pp 1 3 17 23 11 27 34 51 77 3v4
    Home 4 0:27 Edler 1 5 22 23 33 16 24 34 51 77 4v4
    Home 4 0:03 Garrison 1 2 3 17 25 7 34 44 57 82 4v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 17 9 1 1 1 6
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 20:34 6 2 01:13 1 0 02:42 0 0
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 18:55 7 0 03:19 1 1 02:41 0 4
    5 GARRISON, JASON 18:28 6 8 00:41 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 19:11 5 1 00:00 0 0 02:46 1 2
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 13:17 2 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 05:14 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 19:24 7 0 01:04 0 0 00:34 1 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 12:58 2 2 00:00 0 0 02:25 0 4
    17 KESLER, RYAN 15:37 6 4 02:29 1 1 02:02 0 4
    18 STANTON, RYAN 15:00 5 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 14:46 5 5 01:08 0 0 01:05 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 22:33 8 1 02:52 1 1 00:50 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 19:02 5 7 02:47 0 1 02:45 1 6
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 16:11 6 4 00:41 0 0 00:37 0 2
    29 SESTITO, TOM 05:16 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    32 WEISE, DALE 05:13 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 21:17 8 2 03:19 1 1 00:50 0 0
    36 HANSEN, JANNIK 11:57 2 4 00:27 0 0 00:31 1 0

  • It's funny how expectations, a tough division, and a scoring slump can distort our evaluations.
  • And, the Canucks were expected to easily dominate the Panthers (and rightly so!).
  • However, scoring chances don't always capture the 'control' of the game.
  • (See neutral zone stats below).
  • Still, by SCD there were some outstanding numbers!
  • Alex Burrows was reunited with the Twins - they were an amazing 23 -3 in SCD at ES.
  • Repeat! Burrows is definitely well overdue to score. That!..Damn!.. Post!...Again!
  • Kevin Bieksa and Mike Stanton were also terrific. They were a combined 12-0 in SCD at ES.
  • #23 'Eddie" the Anchor was -2 (Now -32 SCD at ES on the season).
  • Both Garrison and Edler had high chance games.
  • The D-pair were on the ice for a total of 24 chances.
  • Nick Bjugstad was the only Panther with a positive SCD at ES. He was 6-4 in SCD.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    • Nick Bjugstad {8-4 total SCD}
    • Roberto Luongo {+1.8 EGA}
    • Tim Thomas {+1.0 EGA}

    Honorable Mention: Alex Burrows continues to be excellent in SCD since returning from injury. He also had two great passes to set up quality scoring chances. (One to Kassian and One to Richardson). And, Burrows was very dangerous all game.

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    FLORIDA


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    10

    23

    44%


    13

    24

    54%

    2

    16

    32

    50%


    17

    34

    50%

    3

    16

    36

    44%


    13

    32

    41%









    Total

    42

    91

    46%


    43

    90

    48%

    • It was an even game in terms of OZE%.
    • This stat helps to explain coach Torterella's exclamation: "We Sucked".
    • The Canucks had a very high total of 33 successful 'carry ins' (26 in the final two periods).
    • The Canucks had an average 15 successful 'dump ins' (in 44 att.) for a rate of (33%).
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was effective in the final two periods.
    • Florida had a very high total of 31 'carry ins'.
    • The Panthers had only 13 'dump in' wins out of 44 for a lower rate of (29%).
    • This included a big puck retrieval to set up the tying goal in the third period.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    FLORIDA


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    16

    32

    50%


    9

    24

    37%

    2

    15

    36

    42%


    13

    40

    33%

    3

    10

    32

    31%


    20

    40

    50%









    Total

    41

    100

    41%


    42

    104

    42%

    • DZE% also confirms that it was an even game in terms of neutral zone play.
    • DZE total attempts shows us Florida clearly carried the play in the 1st period.
    • DZE total attempts also shows that the Canucks carried the play in the 2nd and the 3rd.
    • Elite defensive teams, like the Blues, have DZE% consistently above 50%.
    • This is a concern for the Canucks who are giving up an above average number of goals at ES.
    • Elite defensive teams also have lower turnover rates,
    • The Canucks once again struggled in this area (see below).
    • It's clear that the Canucks played down to the Panthers skill level.
    • And, it is clear that this lower effort level showed up in the neutral zone stats.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    FLORIDA


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    3.6 = 3.3 (.2) {(.1)}

    4.2 = 2.3 (1.6) {.25}

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Florida 4 - Vancouver 4.
    • This was the first time in 7 games (in Phoenix) that the Canucks lost the Expected Score battle.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 3.8.
    • Luongo's rating was + 1.8.
    • Tim Thomas had an {EGA} of ~ 3.0
    • Thomas's rating was + 1.
    • The Canucks won the goaltending battle ~ .8 goal.
    • In the Canucks' last 5 losses:
    • Opposing goaltender rating: ~ +12 goals.
    • Luongo (and Lack's) rating: ~ +1 goal.
    • The opposing goaltenders' have been lights out against the Canucks.
    • The opposing goaltenders' excellent play is the main reason the Canucks are not 4 -1 or better in these games.
    • The Canucks have been receiving only slightly above average goaltending over this time period.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • Once again, Vancouver had a high total of 23 turnovers.
    • The Canucks' turnover rate continues to be the most concerning stat of this team.
    • The Panthers also had an high total of 21 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • Special Teams:
    • The Panthers power play was dominate all night!
    • The Canucks power play was power less yet again!
    • The Canucks failed to dominate the neutral zone versus weaker opposition.
    • Canucks turnovers are very high and a real issue - they need to protect the puck more.
    • Both goaltenders added value to their team but the Canucks finally won the goaltending battle.
    • As I mentioned, expectations are a strange animal.
    • It is a testament to how great the Canucks HAVE been playing that an 'average' game last night was characterized as 'terrible'.
    • All teams have clunkers in a 82 game schedule.
    • By my count the Canucks have had at most only 4 this year.
    • CGY, SJS CBJ, and now FLA.
    • The media/fan reaction to last night's game is also distorted by the team's losing streak.
    • If the Canucks had won their last four games this game would not have been viewed in the same light.
    • In addition, fear of missing the playoffs is a new feeling for the team and fan base.
    • This fear is also distorting the perception of how well the team is playing.
    • Check out my post tomorrow on the 'scoring issue'.
    • It will really help explain the teams' situation and what is needed to improve the team.
    • I won't mention much about the officials but the Canucks remain 25th in power play opportunities.
    • One unnoticed benefit of getting power plays is that it lowers your goals against totals.
    • This is obvious in that shorthanded goal rates are lower than even strength rates!

    And, for those worried Canuck fans, the team is really improving their possession numbers! In the last 7 games they have a ~57% Pos. F Close rating (144-103 in shot attempts).They now rank 6th in the league, at ~54% for the season, and they are 2nd in their division. This is the teams' highest ranking since 2011, when they were third. The short term issue is that possession numbers are only statistically significant with team wins over larger samples 25- 65 games are best.

    To repeat, the Canucks still need to be able to finish more scoring chances - we are just waitin' for the luck to change! Voodoo dolls?! Anyone?!

    Feel free to comment below!

    Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned alot this way when I started!

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-19-panthers-canucks-1_medium

    SCORING CHANCES

    Scoring_chances_medium
    :

    {*From BroadStreetHockey.com}

    • Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
    • It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
    • It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
    • They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
    • For example: screened shots and/ir chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
    • There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.
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