Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #22 Canucks vs. Stars

Hmmm..Goalie Interference ?! - It IS there - somewhere?! - Right?! - Ben Nelms

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 2-1 loss to the Stars .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

DAL

VAN

DAL

VAN

DAL

VAN

DAL

1

8

5

8

5

0

0

0

0

2

7

2

3

2

4

0

0

0

3

7

4

6

4

1

0

0

0

OVR

22

11

17

11

5

0

0

0

  • Good News:
  • The Canucks played a great game! They easily won the chance battle again.
  • The Canucks started strongly but the team couldn't finish on their many chances.
  • The Canucks offense was terrific against good opposition.
  • Vancouver should have won the game and were the better team on the night.
  • The Canucks are having a run of bad luck - the tables will turn.
  • Ultimately the game was decided by a ridiculous 'non-goal' call.
  • Bad News: Not much.
  • The Canucks are giving up high quality chances early in games.
  • This is especially true off of the rush.
  • I wonder, if their new aggressive forecheck system is too risky?
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 19:37 Benn, rush - Hamhuis turnover 1 2 8 17 20 36 3 4 14 32 43 91 5v5
    Home 1 19:12 H. Sedin breakaway -pass D. Sedin 1 5 14 22 23 33 6 12 20 32 33 72 5v5
    Home 1 18:50 H. Sedin 1 3 14 18 22 33 10 17 24 32 38 55 5v5
    Home 1 17:39 Kassian -rebound 1 5 7 9 23 25 3 4 14 32 43 91 5v5
    Away 1 16:15 Eakin - deflection ms 1 2 3 14 17 20 12 20 24 32 55 72 5v5
    Away 1 15:14 #16 - rush 1 5 9 22 23 33 6 16 21 32 33 39 5v5
    Home 1 15:06 Kassian - rebound 1 5 9 22 23 33 6 16 21 32 33 39 5v5
    Home 1 14:37 Santorelli - pass Kassian 1 2 7 8 9 25 14 24 32 43 55 91 5v5
    Away 1 14:04 Nichushkin beat Garrison 1 2 5 13 15 29 3 4 20 32 43 72 5v5
    Away 1 10:28 Nichushkin (Goal) Sesito turnover 1 5 13 15 23 29 6 14 24 32 43 91 5v5
    Home 1 9:46 Higgins 1 3 17 18 20 36 6 10 17 32 33 38 5v5
    Home 1 4:46 Hamhuis - ms - rebound 1 2 8 15 17 20 6 12 20 32 33 72 5v5
    Home 1 0:39 Kassian - deflection 1 2 7 8 9 25 6 14 32 33 43 91 5v5
    Home 2 19:26 H. Sedin - pp 1 3 17 22 23 33 3 4 21 32 38 5v4
    Away 2 14:22 R. Peverley 1 5 7 20 23 33 4 14 17 32 33 91 5v5
    Home 2 13:35 Burrows 1 5 14 18 22 33 10 17 32 33 38 55 5v5
    Home 2 13:19 H. Sedin rebound (Goal) C'mon ref?! 1 3 17 22 23 33 3 4 21 32 38 5v4
    Home 2 12:06 Bieksa - pp , pass H. Sedin 1 3 17 22 23 33 3 4 12 17 32 5v4
    Home 2 8:55 Garrison pp - screen 1 2 5 14 20 25 10 12 24 32 55 5v4
    Away 2 8:05 Benn - rush 2 on 1 , Tanev error 1 2 7 8 9 15 6 14 32 33 43 91 5v5
    Home 2 2:49 D. Sedin 1 5 9 18 22 33 6 10 16 32 33 38 5v5
    Home 2 2:04 Burrows post, pass from H. Sedin 1 5 14 22 23 33 3 4 32 43 72 91 5v5
    Home 3 19:16 Kelser - pass Hansen 1 5 17 20 23 36 3 4 14 32 43 91 5v5
    Away 3 18:48 Benn - rush 1 5 17 22 23 36 4 6 14 20 32 43 5v5
    Away 3 18:18 Cole - 2 on 1 rush , turnover H. Sedin 1 3 14 18 22 33 10 17 24 32 38 55 5v5
    Home 3 16:55 Kesler - pp 1 3 17 22 23 33 3 4 21 32 38 5v4
    Home 3 16:54 H. sedin rebound pp 1 2 8 17 20 36 6 14 32 33 43 91 5v5
    Home 3 13:40 Higgins - wraparound 1 3 17 18 20 36 3 4 12 20 32 72 5v5
    Away 3 12:33 Golionski 1 5 14 22 23 33 6 10 17 32 33 38 5v5
    Home 3 12:07 Kelser - beat D , ms 1 2 5 15 17 20 10 17 24 32 39 55 5v5
    Home 3 11:20 D. Sedin 1 3 14 22 23 33 3 4 16 21 32 39 5v5
    Away 3 3:30 Cole - rush, beat Garrison 1 2 5 14 22 33 6 12 20 32 33 72 5v5
    Home 3 0:11 H. Sedin ms 2 5 14 17 22 33 3 6 14 17 32 91 5v5

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 16 11 5 0 0 0
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 19:37 6 5 02:04 1 0 01:17 0 0
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 18:20 4 2 04:35 4 0 01:14 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 18:34 9 7 01:56 1 0 00:05 0 0
    7 BOOTH, DAVID 14:23 3 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 15:06 4 2 00:08 0 0 01:07 0 0
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 14:49 5 2 00:00 0 0 00:05 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 00:18 0 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 15:40 6 4 02:04 1 0 00:20 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 06:51 2 3 00:00 0 0 00:41 0 0
    17 KESLER, RYAN 19:07 7 3 04:35 4 0 01:20 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 12:08 5 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 17:48 6 3 02:24 1 0 01:25 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 18:27 8 5 04:15 4 0 00:20 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 18:18 6 5 04:35 4 0 01:09 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 11:28 3 0 02:24 1 0 00:46 0 0
    29 SESTITO, TOM 00:30 0 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 18:21 8 5 04:15 4 0 00:00 0 0
    36 HANSEN, JANNIK 14:50 4 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • Alex Burrows was reunited with the Twins - they were 22 -14 in SCD at ES.
  • Many other Canuck forwards had strong games.
  • Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins, Mike Santorelli and Zack Kassian were 21 -8 SCD at ES.
  • As I said last time, Burrows is definitely well overdue to score. That!..Damn!.. Post!
  • Tom Sesitio and Jeremy Welsh appear to be write offs.
  • Somehow, the pair managed to be 0-4 in SCD with 48 seconds of ice tiime?!
  • All Canucks D -men were on the plus side.of the SCD ledger.
  • Yes, even #23 'Eddie" the Anchor was +1.- (Now only -30 SCD at ES on the season).
  • Conversely, Cody Eakin was the only Star on the plus side. He had a 4-3 SCD at ES.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Kari Lehtonen
    2. Ryan Kesler (11-3) total SCD and he was dangerous all night.
    3. Henrik Sedin (12-5) total SCD -He scored 2* goals but had one big defensive turnover.

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    DALLAS


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    13

    37

    35%


    17

    32

    53%

    2

    12

    22

    55%


    9

    19

    47%

    3

    14

    33

    42%


    10

    26

    38%









    Total

    39

    92

    42%


    36

    77

    47%

    • This game, OZE%.stats do not reflect the Canucks large edge in the game.
    • This is a rare occurance and I'm not sure why? I am open to suggestions?
    • The Stars sat back in the third period but did not surrender the neutral zone.
    • The Canucks had a very high total of 33 successful 'carry ins'. And, 25 in the first two periods.
    • The Canucks had only 11 successful 'dump ins' (36 att.) for a low rate of (31%).
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was not effective.
    • Dallas had an average total of 23 'carry ins'.
    • The Stars had 12 'dump in' wins out of 43 for only a rate of (28%).
    • However, the Stars had a very effective forecheck in the first period.
    • Dallas was 10/18 in 'dump in %' in the 1st period.
    • This was the Canucks' worst period in terms of ' dump wins' of the season.
    • This included a big puck retrieval by Tyler Seguin to set up the first goal of the game.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    DALLAS


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    19

    29

    66%


    13

    35

    37%

    2

    6

    15

    40%


    13

    24

    54%

    3

    16

    33

    48%


    15

    45

    33%









    Total

    41

    77

    53%


    41

    104

    40%

    • The Canucks won the 1st and 3rd periods in terms of DZE%.
    • However, does every reward comes at an increased risk?
    • Are the Canucks attempts to hold onto the puck coming at the cost of more turnovers?
    • The Canucks had a ridiculous number last night! -13 turnover in the 1st period (see below).
    • Perhaps Vancouver needs to make the safe dump out play a little more often?
    • Conversely, the Stars were clearly content to dump the puck out, when necessary.
    • DZE% shows us that the Stars create most of their offense from their forwards.
    • DZE% also shows the Canucks carried the play especially in the 3rd period.
    • Vancouver had 25% more DZE Attempts overall.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    Dallas


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    5.4= 3.9 (1.5) {0}

    2.4 = 2.4 (0) {0}

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 5 - Dallas 2

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.2.
    • Luongo's rating was +.2.
    • Kari Lehtonen had an {EGA} of ~4.6.
    • Lehtonen's rating was +3.6.
    • The Stars won the Goaltending battle ~3.4 goals.
    • In the Canucks' last 4 losses:
    • Opposing Goaltender rating: ~ +11 goals.
    • Luongo (and Lack's) rating: ~ - .6 goals.
    • Wow! These numbers say it all!

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • Vancouver had a very high total of 26 turnovers.
    • The Canucks' turnover rate continues to be the most concerning stat of this team.
    • The Stars also had an high total of 25 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Stars goaltending and luck were the key factors in the game.(besides the 'non-goal').
    • The Stars aggressive forcheck was a difference in the first period.
    • The Canucks goals against at (ES), is actually more of a concern then their lack of scoring.
    • I hope to have an in-depth post on this tomorrow.
    • One reason for the increased goals against could be turnovers!
    • Canucks turnovers are very high and a real issue - they need to protect the puck more.
    • A second reason might be a drop in Luongo's play.
    • Lui has not been bad but he used to be 'elite', and he is 34.
    • I wonder, is he on the downside of his career?.
    • I won't mention much about the officials - except the Stars were playing 2004 rules and could have had 10 penalties last night!
    • For example. check out Ryan Kelser undressing Sergi Gonchar mid-way in the third. Sergi clearly puts his stick in Kesler's mid-section 'a la' Henrik vs. SJ in ot last Friday. This infraction took away a great scoring chance by RK. There was no call and, Ryan to his credit, did not whine. It is about consistency and the NHL is clearly lacking in this area.

    And, for those worried Canuck fans, the team is really improving their possession numbers! In the last 6 games they have a ~58% Pos. F Close rating (123-90 in shot attempts).They now rank 6th in the league, at ~54% for the season, and they are 2nd in their division. This is the teams' highest ranking since 2011, when they were third. Of course, the Canucks still need to be able to finish more scoring chances - we are just waitin' for the luck to change! Voodoo dolls?! Anyone?!

    Feel free to comment below!

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-17-stars-canucks_medium

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