Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #21 Canucks vs. Sharks

Sharks recieve a little help from their friends -- the offcials? - Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Spor

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 2-1 ot loss to the Sharks .

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

Period

Totals

EV

PP

SH

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

VAN

SJS

1

6

4

6

2

0

2

0

0

2

7

3

4

3

3

0

0

0

3

6

5

6

5

0

0

0

0

OVR

19

13

16

10

2

0

0

0

  • Good News:
  • The Canucks played a great game! They clearly won the chance battle.
  • This was by far the Sharks worse chance differential of the year.
  • The Canucks started strongly again but couldn't finish on their chances.
  • Bad News: None. The Canucks were terrific against strong opposition.
  • They should have won the game and were the better team on the night.
  • Ultimately the game was decided by a lucky bounce, and a ridiculous penalty call.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 17:39 Booth backhand from Kassian, miss 1 3 7 9 15 18 5 8 9 27 31 83 5v5
    Home 1 14:57 Tanev from Richardson, save 1 2 7 8 9 15 5 8 9 27 31 83 5v5
    Home 1 14:19 Richardson - ms deflection 1 3 7 15 18 21 5 7 8 9 31 83 5v5
    Home 1 12:24 Santorelli from Higgins, save 1 2 8 14 20 25 5 12 27 31 39 81 5v5
    Away 1 11:09 Sheppard deflection from Desjardins, save 1 2 7 8 9 15 10 15 22 31 43 44 5v5
    Away 1 7:46 Thornton one-timer from Marleau, goalpost (5v4 PP) 1 2 8 15 25 8 12 19 22 31 39 4v5
    Away 1 7:31 Pavelski jam play, save (5v4 PP) 1 2 8 15 25 8 12 19 22 31 39 4v5
    Home 1 5:15 H. Sedin from Burrows, save 1 3 14 18 22 33 8 15 22 31 43 44 5v5
    Home 1 5:15 H. Sedin - rush 1 3 14 18 22 33 8 15 22 31 43 44 5v5
    Away 1 3:11 Couture from Kennedy, save 1 3 7 9 15 18 5 8 15 27 31 43 5v5
    Home 2 15:23 Higgins from Burrows, miss 1 2 8 14 20 25 5 12 27 31 39 81 5v5
    Away 2 12:15 Thornton from Hertl, miss 1 2 7 8 17 20 7 19 31 44 48 81 5v5
    Home 2 10:55 Kesler from D. Sedin, save (5v4 PP) 1 2 3 17 22 33 7 12 31 57 61 5v4
    Home 2 9:12 H. Sedin one-timer from Edler, miss 1 5 14 20 23 25 12 22 31 39 44 81 5v5
    Away 2 7:34 Vlasic from Thornton, save (4v4) 1 2 3 17 20 5 9 19 31 44 4v4
    Away 2 6:55 Couture off turnover, save (4v4) 1 5 22 23 33 7 31 39 57 61 4v4
    Home 2 6:31 Burrows one-timer from H. Sedin, miss (5v4 PP) 1 2 3 14 22 33 7 12 31 61 83 5v4
    Home 2 6:31 Burrows - ms - pp 1 2 3 14 22 33 7 12 31 61 83 5v4
    Home 2 5:51 Richardson 1 7 8 9 15 18 8 15 22 31 43 44 5v5
    Home 2 4:53 Kesler from D. Sedin, save 1 2 8 17 22 33 5 12 27 31 39 81 5v5
    Home 3 18:48 Higgins from Tanev, save 1 2 8 14 20 25 8 12 22 31 39 44 5v5
    Home 3 18:42 Higgins 1 2 8 14 20 25 8 12 22 31 39 44 5v5
    Away 3 16:24 Couture one-timer from Marleau, save 1 2 8 14 20 25 7 8 12 31 39 61 5v5
    Home 3 11:53 Burrows from Higgins, save 1 5 14 20 23 25 7 31 43 48 57 61 5v5
    Away 3 10:35 Couture deflection from Marleau, miss 1 2 8 15 20 25 8 12 22 31 39 44 5v5
    Home 3 9:44 H. Sedin ms 1 3 22 23 33 19 22 31 44 48 4v4
    Away 3 7:43 Sheppard, save 1 5 7 14 23 25 7 15 31 43 61 81 5v5
    Home 3 4:48 Burrows - ms 1 2 8 14 20 25 5 8 12 27 31 39 5v5
    Home 3 2:25 Burrows backhand from Higgins, save 1 2 8 14 20 25 7 8 12 31 39 61 5v5
    Away 3 1:05 Hertl - (goal) 1 5 14 20 23 25 7 8 12 31 39 61 5v5
    Away 3 0:23 McCarthy 1 2 8 17 22 33 15 22 31 43 44 81 5v5
    Away 4 2:22 Boyle (4 on 3) I n v a l i d D a t a

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 16 10 3 0 0 2
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 20:27 8 6 02:05 3 0 03:08 0 2
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 18:40 5 2 01:52 3 0 01:49 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 16:48 2 3 00:38 0 0 00:53 0 0
    7 BOOTH, DAVID 12:04 4 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 19:48 9 5 00:00 0 0 03:22 0 2
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 10:55 3 2 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 15:50 10 3 00:51 2 0 00:00 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 11:29 4 3 00:00 0 0 03:03 0 2
    17 KESLER, RYAN 19:02 1 3 01:39 1 0 02:37 0 0
    18 STANTON, RYAN 12:34 5 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 18:33 8 5 00:21 0 0 01:38 0 0
    21 DALPE, ZAC 04:16 1 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 21:24 4 2 02:09 3 0 00:30 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 21:52 3 3 00:25 0 0 00:39 0 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 15:51 8 4 00:21 0 0 02:04 0 2
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 21:32 4 2 02:09 3 0 00:30 0 0

  • The Canucks 2nd line was 'crazy good' once again!
  • Alex Burrows, Chris Higgins and Mike Santorelli were a terrific 26-12 in SCD at ES.
  • As I said last time, Burrows is definitely well overdue to score.
  • Ryan Stanton and Kevin Bieksa were the best D-men. they were 10 -3 in SCD at ES.
  • Conversely, Logan Couture and Joe Pavalski had really tough nights.
  • The two top centers were a combined 8 -18 in SCD at ES.
  • No Shark tood out in terms of SCD.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Anti Neimi {+2. rating)
    2. Kevin Bieksa
    3. The Canucks 2nd Line (The trio had an 60% Pos. F)

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    SAN JOSE


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    15

    30

    50%


    13

    29

    45%

    2

    16

    22

    72%


    8

    17

    47%

    3

    11

    21

    45%


    16

    33

    48%









    Total

    42

    73

    58%


    37

    79

    47%

    • The Canucks were the better team by OZE%.
    • Holding the Sharks under 50% OZE in each period was a huge achievement.
    • The Canucks sat back in the third period and allowed the Sharks to carry the play.
    • The Canucks had a high total of 26 successful 'carry ins'. And, 13 in the 2nd period.
    • The Canucks had 16 successful 'dump ins' (31 att.) for a season high rate of (52%).
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was extremely effective .
    • The Canucks won the puck battle game decisively!
    • San Jose also had a very high total of 32 'carry ins' - 17 in the 3rd period.
    • The Sharks had only 10 'dump in' wins out of 34 for only a rate of (29%).

    DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    SAN JOSE


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    15

    33

    45%


    11

    34

    43%

    2

    14

    28

    50%


    8

    28

    26%

    3

    12

    36

    33%


    12

    29

    43%









    Total

    41

    97

    42%


    31

    101

    30%

    • Neither team was above average in DZE%.
    • The very high turnover totals (see below) confirms this fact.
    • The Canucks were content to dump the puck out, when necessary, in the tird period.
    • The Sharks had a pitiful night moving the puck out of their zone with possession.
    • DZE% shows us that the Sharks are also vulnerable on the defence.
    • The Canucks forecheck confounded the Sharks and cause numerous turnovers (see below).

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


    VANCOUVER

    San Jose


    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}

    TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}


    3.3 = 3.0 (.3) {0}

    2.5 = 1.9 (.6) {0}

    • Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - San Jose 2

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.3.
    • Luongo's rating was +.3.
    • Antti Neimi had an {EGA} of ~3.0.
    • Niemi's rating was +2.0.
    • The Sharks won the goaltending battle by nearly ~2 goals.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • Vancouver had a very high total of 27 turnovers.
    • The Canucks turnover rates is the single most concerning statistic of this team.
    • The Sharks had an even higher total of 33 turnovers.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The Sharks goaltending and luck were the key factors in the game.
    • The Canucks won every stat battle in the game.
    • Once again, the Canucks did not receive the penalty calls they deserved.
    • The Canucks are now -20 in Power play differential versus the Sharks in the last 8 games.
    • The Canucks rank 28th in power plays in the league with ~3/gm.
    • The Sharks are 1st. The Kings are 3rd. The Coyotes 6th. The Ducks 11th.
    • To put these numbers in perspective:
    • The Sharks have had more than 3 powerplays 12 times this year.
    • The Canucks only 4 times.
    • The better team ought to draw more penalties- it isn't happening enough in Canuck games.

    Finally, much has been said about how difficult the Canucks' division is. This is accurate. However, the Canucks are really improving as a team. In the last 5 games (4 on the road) they have bettered their Pacific Division rivals with ~57% Pos. F Close rating (103-79 in shot attempts).This is good news long term for Canuck fans, now it is time to get some calls and finish more scoring chances.

    Feel free to comment below!

    SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART

    (courtesy of extraskater.com)

    Fenwick-graph-2013-11-14-sharks-canucks_medium

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