Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #13 Canucks vs. Capitals

Rich Lam

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & expected score from the Canucks 3-2 victory over the Capitals.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

VAN

WSH

ES

PP

SH

ES

PP

SH

1

3

3

0

4

2

0

2

5

3

0

1

1

0

3

6

3

1

1

1

0

0T

0

0

0

0

0

0

Totals

14

9

1

6

4

0

VAN

23

WSH

10

  • Good News: The Canucks rebounded with their highest scoring chance total.
  • It appears the two days off they received were just what the team needed.
  • Vancouver's offense finally was able to create high quality scoring chances.
  • The first period was competitive, after that, the Canucks out-chanced the Caps 18-4.
  • The Canucks' Power Play continues to generate an above average number of chances.
  • The team is also generating a high number of shots and rank 2nd in the league.
  • The team is overdue to score on the PP as soon as the 'puck luck' shifts.
  • The Canucks defence play tightened after the first period.
  • The Canucks had the puck most of the night. Their Pos. FC was a very impressive 65%.
  • Bad News:
  • There are no complaints! It was an excellent all around game.
  • The Canucks did take advantage of another below average defensive team.
  • The Canucks turned the tables from last game, and posted 9 consecutive chances.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Away 1 18:42 Ove - beat Edler (penalty shot) 1 5 17 23 29 33 8 19 30 52 88 90 5v5
    Home 1 16:29 D. Sedin (takeaway H. Sedin 1 3 22 23 33 16 21 30 61 88 4v4
    Home 1 15:49 Kesler - beat D one on one 1 5 17 22 23 33 10 20 30 61 88 5v4
    Home 1 15:37 Burrows - screen 1 2 5 14 20 25 20 25 27 30 74 5v4
    Away 1 14:55 Johansson - beat Edler wide 1 3 17 22 23 33 8 19 30 52 88 90 5v5
    Home 1 11:41 Santorelli - pp 1 2 3 14 20 25 10 16 30 34 61 5v4
    Away 1 10:39 Brower - beat Higgens 1 2 8 17 20 8 19 20 30 52 90 4v5
    Away 1 9:42 Grabowski - turnover D. Sedin 1 2 8 22 33 8 10 21 30 42 74 4v5
    Home 1 8:30 Kassian Goal - pass Higgins 1 5 9 13 20 23 16 25 30 52 84 88 5v5
    Home 1 6:21 Kassian - takeaway and pass Burrows 1 3 9 18 20 25 16 24 30 34 43 61 5v5
    Away 1 5:23 Ward - deflection, turnover Sesito 1 5 17 22 23 33 8 19 30 52 88 90 5v5
    Away 1 0:22 Johansson - beat Edler 1 8 17 22 23 33 8 19 30 52 88 90 5v5
    Home 2 15:54 Kesler - deflection pp 1 2 5 17 22 33 21 27 30 42 74 5v4
    Home 2 15:52 H. Sedin -rebound pp 1 2 5 17 22 33 21 27 30 42 74 5v4
    Away 2 14:06 Ovi - rush - beat Hamhuis and Tanev 1 2 8 15 25 8 19 20 30 52 90 4v5
    Home 2 11:49 Archibald wins puck battle and pass. 1 8 13 14 18 49 16 25 27 30 74 84 5v5
    Home 2 9:45 Richardson - rush , Kassian puck battle win 1 5 9 15 23 29 8 25 27 30 74 84 5v5
    Home 2 8:29 H. Sedin -takeaway Kesler 1 3 13 17 22 23 8 19 30 61 88 90 5v5
    Home 2 5:30 Kesler - ms , pass H. sedin pp 1 3 17 22 23 33 10 16 30 34 74 5v4
    Away 2 3:45 Grabowski - deflection - ms 1 3 9 15 18 29 25 30 42 52 84 88 5v5
    Home 2 1:39 Kesler - ms, pass Henrik 1 3 17 18 22 33 10 20 21 30 34 61 5v5
    Home 2 0:54 Santorelli - won puck battle 1 5 17 20 23 25 25 27 30 42 74 84 5v5
    Home 3 18:38 Kesler pass H. Sedin 1 2 8 17 22 33 8 19 27 30 74 90 5v5
    Away 3 18:09 Grabowski - Goal -Bieksa lost PB, Stantion out of pos. 1 3 9 15 18 29 25 30 34 42 61 84 5v5
    Home 3 17:45 Burrows - wraparound, takeaway 1 5 14 20 23 25 10 20 21 30 34 61 5v5
    Home 3 17:08 Kesler (Goal) - rebound, pass H. Sedin 1 3 17 18 22 33 8 19 27 30 52 90 5v5
    Home 3 15:43 H. Sedin - pass D. Sedin 1 2 8 17 22 33 8 19 27 30 74 90 5v5
    Home 3 15:20 D. Sedin - deflection 1 2 8 17 22 33 8 19 27 30 74 90 5v5
    Home 3 15:00 D. Sedin (Goal) - screen 1 2 8 17 22 33 8 19 27 30 74 90 5v5
    Home 3 13:01 H. Sedin - ms 1 2 5 17 22 33 20 21 27 30 74 5v4
    Home 3 12:45 H. Sedin 1 2 5 17 22 33 25 30 34 42 52 5v4
    Home 3 6:20 Santorelli - ms, takeaway 1 5 15 23 25 8 19 20 30 52 90 4v5
    Away 3 5:34 Erat - rebound, ms 1 2 8 17 20 8 10 20 21 30 74 4v5
    Home 3 2:04 Santorelli - rush pp, pass Higgins 1 3 14 20 23 25 25 30 34 42 61 5v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 14 6 9 0 1 4
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 12:54 4 0 05:36 6 0 04:33 0 4
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 16:34 5 3 04:52 3 0 01:44 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 13:55 4 2 06:00 6 0 01:24 1 0
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 12:59 5 1 00:00 0 0 04:25 0 4
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 10:28 3 2 00:07 0 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 07:20 3 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    14 BURROWS, ALEXANDRE 12:03 2 0 03:54 3 0 00:00 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 09:47 1 2 00:47 0 0 03:07 1 1
    17 KESLER, RYAN 14:57 8 4 06:08 6 0 02:48 0 2
    18 STANTON, RYAN 11:42 4 2 00:08 0 0 00:03 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 11:44 4 0 04:34 3 0 02:39 0 2
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 15:56 8 3 06:11 6 0 01:06 0 1
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 17:07 6 4 05:13 3 0 01:35 1 0
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 11:51 3 0 04:32 3 0 03:04 1 1
    29 SESTITO, TOM 06:06 1 3 00:07 0 0 00:00 0 0
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 16:04 7 4 06:11 6 0 01:00 0 1
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 04:52 1 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • The Canucks' top line of Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler were the difference.
  • The line, (known as "Ry and Ginger"), were a combined 42-13 in SCD. (23-11 at ES).
  • The trio also played head to head against Alex Ovechkin winning the battle decisively..
  • Mike Santorelli had another strong game in a supporting role. He had a SCD of 7-1.
  • Kevin Bieksa was the best of the Canucks' blueliners.
  • Bieksa played 23+ minutes and posted an 8-3 SCD.
  • Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Ryan Kesler

    2. Daniel Sedin

    3. Micheal Neuvirth

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    WASHINGTON


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    15

    24

    63%


    10

    20

    50%

    2

    15

    26

    58%


    12

    24

    50%

    3

    13

    19

    68%


    13

    26

    50%









    Total

    43

    69

    62%


    35

    70

    50%

    • The Canucks were the better team in the neutral zone.
    • Overall, it was one of the teams' best games in terms of OZE%.
    • The final score did not reflect the Canucks' advantage in the neutral zone.
    • OZE% (against) shows the Capitals were an average team offensively.
    • It was an even game in terms of OZE attempts.
    • The Canucks had 26 successful 'carry ins' .
    • Washington had an above average total of 29.
    • The Capitals were an above average 'puck moving' team.
    • However, they failed to create the expected number of scoring chances.
    • The Canucks had 18 successful 'dump ins' out of 36 (50%).
    • The Capitals had only 8 'dump in' wins out of 33 (24%).
    • The Canucks' won the puck battle stat decisively.
    • Coach John Torterella and his aggressive forecheck system was a big factor in the game.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    WASHINGTON


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    15

    29

    52%


    15

    25

    60%

    2

    15

    29

    52%


    12

    25

    49%

    3

    16

    29

    54%


    11

    25

    44%









    Total

    46

    86

    52%


    38

    75

    50%

    • Overall, the game was even in terms of DZE%.
    • The Capitals defense moved the puck very well in the first period.
    • The Capitals defence were above average in the first period.
    • The Canucks forechecking put pressure on the Capitals defence in the last 2 periods.
    • The Canucks defence were a little above average in DZE% for the game.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}


    VANCOUVER

    WASHINGTON


    ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE

    ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE


    3.4 (2) {.1}= 5.5

    1.5 (.8) {.2} = 2.5

    • Expected Score suggests: the Canucks should have won the game 5 - 2.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 2.3.
    • Michael Neuvrith had an {EPA} of ~5.5.
    • Luongo's rating was +.3 goals.
    • Neurith's rating +3.5 goals.
    • The Capitals actually won the goaltending battle by a large margin.
    • Luongo's performance looked better or more important because the Canucks did not score on an average number of their chances.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • The Canucks won the turnover battle.
    • Vancouver had an above average total of 17 turnovers.
    • The Canucks had 10 turnovers in the 1st period.
    • Washington had a high total of 21 turnovers.
    • The Capitals had 16 turnovers in the final two periods.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • The 'Ry and Ginger' Line were terrific!
    • The Canucks forecheck took over in the final two periods.
    • The Capitals goaltender Micheal Neuvith kept the game close.
    • The Canucks could not take full advantage of their high number of SC's.
    • This was especially true on the power play where the team had 9 chances and 16 shots.

    Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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