FanPost

Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #13 Canucks vs. Blues

OK, we'll take the extra point. - Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & expected score from the Canucks 3-2 ot victory over the Blues.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS

VAN

STL

ES

PP

SH

ES

PP

SH

1

0

0

0

3

0

0

2

3

2

0

4

1

0

3

2

0

0

4

2

0

0T

0

2

0

1

0

0

Totals

5

4

0

12

3

0

VAN

9

STL

15

  • Good News: There wasn't much again!
  • On the defensive side the Canucks did not give up many high quality chances.
  • Part of this is luck or the bounces.
  • Part credit goes to Canucks def. system,
  • And, part to the Blues offense shortcomings.
  • Bad News:
  • It was another sub-par game (by scoring chance metrics).
  • Vancouver's offense continues to have difficulty creating scoring chances.
  • This will be an issue when facing better goaltenders and offensively gifted teams.
  • For the 2nd straight game, the Canucks gave up 9 consecutive chances against.
  • COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

    Team Period Time Note Home Away State
    Home 1 19:45 Pietrangelo (3 on 2) (Garrison pinch -) 19 20 27 41 42 74 5 17 22 23 31 33 5v5
    Home 1 13:15 Oshie 19 20 27 41 42 74 8 17 18 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 1 3:06 Piterangleo (rush) 19 20 27 41 42 74 2 8 17 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 2 19:39 Kesler (takeaway & pass by D. Sedin) 5 20 27 41 42 5 17 22 23 31 33 4v5
    Away 2 19:38 Kesler (rebound) 19 21 41 46 74 5 17 22 23 31 33 4v5
    Home 2 16:01 Shattenkirk (beat welsch) 5 9 21 22 25 41 2 8 13 15 31 49 5v5
    Home 2 14:24 Stewart (turnover Lack) 5 20 22 25 41 42 3 17 18 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 2 12:50 Archibald (rush - pass Welsch) 12 19 27 41 56 91 2 8 9 13 31 49 5v5
    Away 2 10:38 Kassian (rush - pass Higgins) 5 9 10 17 22 41 5 9 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Away 2 10:26 Kesler (Goal - Sanorelli takeaway and pass) 19 20 27 41 42 74 3 17 18 22 31 33 5v5
    Home 2 4:43 Sobatka (ms - Bieksa failed clear) 10 17 25 33 41 46 3 13 15 23 29 31 5v5
    Home 2 4:10 Leopold (rebound) 10 17 25 33 41 46 3 13 15 23 29 31 5v5
    Home 2 0:07 Steen (Goal) 9 17 20 22 25 41 2 8 17 20 31 5v4
    Home 3 19:15 Sobotka (beat Edler wide) 9 17 20 22 25 41 5 15 23 25 31 5v4
    Home 3 18:52 Stewart (ms- rebound) 9 17 20 22 25 41 5 15 23 25 31 5v4
    Home 3 18:25 Sobatka (Goal - rebound) 9 17 20 22 25 41 3 8 22 23 25 31 5v5
    Home 3 13:26 Stewart (ms - rush) 9 21 25 33 41 46 3 13 15 18 29 31 5v5
    Home 3 13:18 Stewart (Welsch lost puck battle) 9 21 25 33 41 46 3 13 15 18 29 31 5v5
    Home 3 11:55 Oshie (ms-H. Sedin lost puck battle) 19 20 27 41 42 74 2 8 17 22 31 33 5v5
    Away 3 3:19 Welsch (ms) 17 33 41 42 46 91 5 9 13 23 29 31 5v5
    Away 3 1:34 H. Sedin (deflection) 19 20 27 41 42 74 3 17 18 29 31 33 5v5
    Home 4 3:09 Pietranglo (screened) 9 19 21 27 41 2 5 22 31 33 4v4
    Away 4 0:25 H. Sedin (pas from D. Sedin) 5 27 41 42 5 17 22 31 33 3v4
    Away 4 0:24 Kesler (ind. effort) 5 27 41 42 5 17 22 31 33 3v4

    CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

    # Player EV PP SH
    2 HAMHUIS, DAN 18:43 1 4 01:07 0 0 00:55 0 1
    3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 20:18 2 6 01:22 0 0 00:32 0 0
    5 GARRISON, JASON 17:06 2 2 02:57 2 1 00:50 0 2
    8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 20:28 1 5 00:00 0 0 01:10 0 1
    9 KASSIAN, ZACK 11:25 3 0 01:22 0 0 00:00 0 0
    13 WELSH, JEREMY 12:14 2 5 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 16:17 0 5 00:00 0 0 01:08 0 2
    17 KESLER, RYAN 20:18 2 5 02:57 2 1 01:09 0 1
    18 STANTON, RYAN 18:22 2 4 00:05 0 0 00:00 0 0
    20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 15:20 0 0 01:05 0 0 01:09 0 1
    22 SEDIN, DANIEL 20:37 2 7 03:14 2 1 00:15 0 0
    23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 20:54 2 4 02:48 2 0 01:37 0 2
    25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 14:50 1 1 01:05 0 0 01:05 0 2
    29 SESTITO, TOM 11:24 2 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
    31 LACK, EDDIE 5 12 2 1 0 3
    33 SEDIN, HENRIK 21:50 2 6 03:14 2 1 00:00 0 0
    49 ARCHIBALD, DARREN 08:01 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

    • Zac Kassian was a lone bright spot. He had a 3-0 SCD.
    • Kassian was a physical presence, and by my eye is more engaged in the play.
    • For the first game in seven the Canucks defense lost the SCD battle decisively.
    • Hamhuis, Bieksa and the usually steady Tanev were a combined 4-15 in SCD.
    • The Canucks top players (the Twins and Kesler) also had a tough night.
    • The three players struggled badly at even strength posting a 6-18 SCD.
    • Part of this ineffectiveness was clearly due to fatigue.
    • These players had a 20% drop in TOI. They played 'only' a combined 60 minutes.
    • And, part was due to the difficulty of the big-bodied Blues and their shutdown game.
    • The Blues played the classic tight 'western conference style' game.
    • The Blues defensive play and 'road trip' fatigue were factors in shutting down the Canucks.

    Statistical Three Stars:

    1. Chris Stewart (10-0 SCD).

    2. Alex Steen (9-3 SCD).

    3. Eddie Lack (+.7 in Expected Goals Against).

    OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


    VANCOUVER


    ST. LOUIS


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    8

    34

    23%


    18

    36

    50%

    2

    11

    26

    42%


    11

    26

    44%

    3

    11

    30

    37%


    14

    35

    40%









    Total

    30

    90

    33%


    43

    97

    44%

    • The Canucks had a brutal start offensively. How bad was it?
    • It took Vancouver 7 minutes to register their first successful 'carry-in'.
    • Overall, It was the teams' worst game in terms of OZE%.
    • On the plus side the Blues, regarded as an elite team, could not take advantage offensively.
    • OZE% (for) shows the Blues inability to dominate the offensive side of the neutral zone battle.
    • This will have to improve before the Blues are legitimate cup contenders.
    • However, OZE% (against) shows the Blues are clearly an elite 'defensive' team.
    • The Canucks surrendered a high number of zone attempts.
    • The Canucks' defense again did reasonably well under the increased pressure.
    • This game seems to support coach Torterella's heralded shot blocking emphasis.
    • The Canucks had only 18 successful 'carry ins' - St. Louis had 29.
    • The Canucks had 11 successful 'dump ins' out of 61 (18%), and only 2 in period 1.
    • The Blues had only 10 'dump in' wins out of 52 (19%).
    • These stats show terrific effort by Canucks defence.
    • They managed to equal the Blues in 'possession wins' off of 'dump ins'.
    • The Blues could not take advantage of a very tired Canucks team.

    DEFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

    Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


    VANCOUVER


    ST. LOUIS


    Period

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    Successful

    Attempted

    %

    1

    23

    42

    55%


    20

    29

    69%

    2

    11

    28

    39%


    17

    26

    65%

    3

    12

    33

    36%


    23

    32

    72%









    Total

    46

    103

    45%


    60

    87

    69 %

    • This was no contest! The Canucks lost the DZE% battle decisively.
    • The Canucks aggressive forecheck was completely ineffective.
    • The Canucks allowed the Blues to leave their zone with possession far too easily.
    • The Canucks defense moved the puck well in the first period.
    • The team resorted to just 'dumping it out' in the final 2 periods.
    • The Canucks were forced to make ~16% more defensive zone attempts.
    • On a positive note the Blues were not able to capitalize on their neutral zone domination.

    EXPECTED SCORE

    {Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}


    VANCOUVER

    StT. LOUIS


    ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE

    ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE


    1.3(.9) = 2.2

    2.6 (.8) = 3.4

    • Expected Score suggests the Blues should have won the game 3 - 2.

    GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

    {Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

    • Eddie Lack had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 2.7.
    • Jaroslav Halak had an {EPA} of ~ 2.
    • Halak's rating: -1 goals.
    • Lack's rating +.7 goals.
    • The Canucks' easily won the goaltending battle.
    • Lack played very well considering he is a rookie and a backup.
    • However, Lack's performance looked even better due to Halak's poor play.

    TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

    • The Canucks lost the turnover battle decisively.
    • Vancouver had a very high total of 26 turnovers.
    • St. Louis had only 8.
    • The Canucks' aggressive forecheck was not as effective as in past games.
    • Blues coach Ken Hitchcock is known to emphasize a low turnover game.

    THE DECIDING FACTORS

    • Luck : By the numbers, the Canucks were clearly lucky to win this game.
    • Goaltending - The Expected Goals Against diff. was +1.7 in favor of Vancouver.
    • J. Halak's performance had a rating of -1.
    • "Steady' Eddie Lack posted a rating of +.7, in only his 3rd career start.
    • The Blues were unable to capitalize on a significant neutral zone edge.
    • Fatigue - The team has played 7 games in 11 nights all on the road.
    • Coaching/team effort:
    • The Canucks' could have mailed this game in, but, they didn't.
    • It will be very interesting to see these two teams battle again when Vancouver is healthy and rested.

    Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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