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Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #12 Canucks vs. Devils

"So this Italian guy walks into Newark..." - Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & expected score from the Canucks' 3-2 ot victory over the Devils.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS


VANCOUVER

DEVILS


ES +(PP)+ {SH}+[OT}= Total Chances

ES (PP) {SH}+[OT] = Total Chances

1

3 (0) = 3

4 (1) = 5

2

4 (0)= 4

6 (1) = 7

3

0 (0) = 0

3 (1) = 4

Total

7 (0) [1] = 8

13 (3) [0] = 16

  • Good News: There wasn't much!
  • It was the Canucks worse game of the year (by scoring chance metrics).
  • Bad News: Vancouver's defense gave up a high number of chances.
  • The Canucks' offense push evaporated after tieing the game in the 2nd period.
  • Vancouver was out-chanced 0-9 in the last half of regulation play.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team Period Time Note Home Away State
Home 1 17:50 Jagr (off rush - beat Bieksa) 5 21 22 26 35 68 1 3 7 13 15 18 5v5
Home 1 14:56 Elias (off rush - Edler gives up BL) 2 21 26 28 35 68 1 5 15 23 25 32 5v5
Away 1 14:19 Welsch ( ms -rebound) 2 8 14 17 28 35 1 3 7 13 15 18 5v5
Away 1 13:54 Kesler (turnover Schnieder) 6 7 11 18 20 35 1 2 8 17 22 33 5v5
Home 1 10:57 Jagr (Santorelli out of position on pk) 2 17 19 22 35 68 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
Home 1 8:27 Gionta (Tanev & Alberts lose puck battle) 2 11 18 20 28 35 1 8 9 20 25 41 5v5
Away 1 4:49 Higgins (post - off rush pass by Kassian) 6 7 11 18 20 35 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Home 1 0:45 Loktionov - Edler lost puck battle) 6 7 21 26 35 68 1 5 15 17 23 33 5v5
Home 2 18:37 Brunner (turnover Tanev) 2 12 19 25 28 35 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Away 2 18:04 Higgins (off rush) 2 12 21 25 28 35 1 3 9 18 20 25 5v5
Away 2 17:53 Bieksa (beat D one on one) 2 12 21 25 28 35 1 3 9 18 20 25 5v5
Away 2 15:14 Kassian (off rush - pass by Stanton) 2 11 18 20 28 35 1 8 9 18 22 25 5v5
Home 2 14:53 Carter (ms - Hamhuis lost puck battle) 5 18 19 20 22 35 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Away 2 13:10 D. Sedin (deflection ) 2 8 14 17 28 35 1 3 17 18 22 33 5v5
Home 2 11:41 Zajac (off rush) 2 17 19 26 35 68 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
Home 2 4:17 Jagr (off rush) 5 21 22 26 35 68 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Home 2 4:13 Loktionov (rebound) 5 21 22 26 35 68 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Home 2 2:34 Brunner (ms - turnover Bieksa) 6 7 12 19 25 35 1 3 13 17 18 22 5v5
Home 2 1:39 Zubris (off rush - beat Garrison) 6 7 8 14 17 35 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
Home 3 16:45 Ryder (beat Bieksa) 2 17 19 26 35 68 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
Home 3 9:28 Ryder (off faceoff) 5 8 17 19 22 35 1 5 13 15 23 29 5v5
Home 3 5:26 Elias (beat Tanev) 5 21 22 26 35 68 1 2 8 9 20 25 5v5
Home 3 4:27 Bernier( Turnover Bieksa- failed clear ) 2 11 18 20 28 35 1 5 13 15 20 23 5v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

# Player EV PP SH
1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 7 13 0 0 0 3
2 HAMHUIS, DAN 14:34 2 5 00:29 0 0 03:15 0 3
3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 20:39 4 2 00:41 0 0 01:23 0 0
5 GARRISON, JASON 20:45 0 5 01:32 0 0 00:00 0 0
7 BOOTH, DAVID 04:02 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 15:35 3 6 00:00 0 0 03:57 0 3
9 KASSIAN, ZACK 17:19 4 6 00:18 0 0 00:00 0 0
13 WELSH, JEREMY 11:51 1 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 16:07 1 5 00:00 0 0 03:25 0 3
17 KESLER, RYAN 21:45 2 3 01:55 0 0 01:30 0 0
18 STANTON, RYAN 16:44 5 2 00:00 0 0 00:42 0 0
20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 19:33 3 7 00:18 0 0 01:30 0 0
22 SEDIN, DANIEL 23:05 3 2 01:55 0 0 00:25 0 0
23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 24:57 0 5 01:31 0 0 01:23 0 0
25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 19:52 4 7 00:18 0 0 02:53 0 3
29 SESTITO, TOM 08:30 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
32 WEISE, DALE 02:30 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
33 SEDIN, HENRIK 23:01 2 2 01:55 0 0 00:57 0 0
41 ALBERTS, ANDREW 01:49 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • Ryan Stanton was a bright spot. He had a 5-2 SCD.
  • Stanton and Mike Santorelli continue to be unexpected surprises so far.
  • Alex Edler was a disaster defensively. He had a 0-5 SCD.
  • Edler also had above average turnover numbers.
  • Edler's 'flashy' offensive skill covers up his below average defensive play.
  • Jason Garrison had an unusually tough night. He was also 0 -5 in SCD.
  • The Canucks top players (the Twins and Kesler) fought hard all game.
  • The three players were a respectable 7-7 (combined) in SCD.
  • These players continue to play 'big' minutes. (75+ min. combined (TOI)).
  • The Devils played a 'western conference style' game.
  • NJD's tighter defensive play and 'road trip' fatigue were factors in shutting down the Canucks.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Patrick Elias (8-0 SCD).

2.Adam Larrson (6-0 SCD).

3. Roberto Luongo (+.8 in Expected Goals Against).

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


DEVILS


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

19

29

66%


16

39

41%

2

14

33

42%


14

34

44%

3

7

25

28%


14

33

42%









Total

40

87

46%


44

106

42%

  • The Canucks had a strong start offensively, in terms of OZE%.
  • However, the team continues to have difficultly generating scoring chances.
  • If this trend continues, the team will struggle to score versus better goaltenders,
  • OZE% also shows the team sat back in the third period.
  • The Canucks lost the neutral zone battle in the final 2 periods.
  • The Canucks surrendered a very high number of zone attempts.
  • The Canucks' defense did reasonably well under the increased pressure.
  • The Canucks had 30 successful 'carry ins' - New Jersey had 33.
  • The Canucks had 11 successful 'dump ins' out of 45 (25%), but, only 1 in period 3.
  • The Devils had 10 'dump in' wins out of 56 (18%).
  • OZE% clearly shows one reason why the Devils are not a strong team.
  • New Jersey could not take advantage when facing a very tired Canucks team.

DEFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


VANCOUVER


New Jersey

Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

21

39

55%


15

23

65%

2

16

28

52%


19

31

61%

3

8

29

28%


10

28

36%









Total

46

96

48%


44

82

54%

  • The Canucks held their own in DZE% in the first two periods.
  • The Canucks surrendered possession coming out of their zone in period 3.
  • We clearly see that New Jersey held a significant territorial advantage
  • The Canucks were forced to make ~20% more defensive zone attempts.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}


VANCOUVER

NEW JERSEY


ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE

ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE


2 (.1) = 2.1

3.1 (.5) = 3.6

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  • Goaltending - The Expected Goals Against differential was + 1.3 in favor of Vancouver.
  • The Canucks are still not getting their fair share of penalty calls.
  • Vancouver continues to rank 30th in opportunities per game (~2.6/gm.).
  • The league average for power play differential is (3.7/gm.).
  • Fatigue - The team has played 6 games in 10 nights on the road.
  • Coaching/team effort:
  • The Canucks are consistently winning > 50% of puck battles in both zones.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 2.8.
  • Cory Schneider had an expected goals against of ~ 1.5.
  • Luongo's rating: +.8
  • Schneider's rating -.5
  • The Canucks' easily won the goaltending battle.
  • Luongo played above average for the second straight game.
  • However, Luongo's performance looked even better due to Schnieder's poor play.

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

  • The Canucks lost the turnover battle decisively.
  • Vancouver had a high total of 22 turnovers.
  • New Jersey had only 13.
  • The Canucks' aggressive forecheck was not as effective as in past games.

    Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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