FanPost

Behind the Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #11 Canucks vs. Islanders

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & expected score from the Canucks' 5-4 ot win over the Islanders.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS


VANCOUVER

NY ISLANDERS


ES +(PP)+ {SH}+*[OT}= Total Chances

ES (PP) {SH}+*[OT]=Total Chances

1

4 (0) {0} = 4

5 (1) {0} =6

2

4 (0) {1} = 5

3 (2) {1}=6

3

3 (0) {0} =3

3 (0) {1} =4

Total

11 (0) {1} [2]= 14

11 (3) {2} [0] = 16

  • Good News: The 'tired' Canucks tied the chance battle at even strength.
  • The Canucks defensive play improved in the last two periods.
  • Bad News: Vancouver's offense was below average in creating chances.
  • Vancouver failed again to receive an average number of power play opportunities.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team Period Time Note Home Away State
Home 1 17:34 Nielson (Goal) (Luongo-failed to play puck) 7 13 14 17 20 53 1 5 17 23 29 32 5v5
Home 1 15:21 Moulson 20 21 26 47 51 91 1 3 15 23 25 5v4
Home 1 15:19 Moulson (rebound) 3 13 17 20 47 53 1 2 8 17 20 33 5v5
Away 1 15:05 Kesler (rebound) 3 13 17 20 47 53 1 2 8 17 20 33 5v5
Away 1 14:51 D. Sedin (forced turnover by Santorelli) 20 21 26 37 46 91 1 5 22 23 25 36 5v5
Away 1 14:49 D. Sedin (rebound -ms) 20 21 26 37 46 91 1 5 22 23 25 36 5v5
Away 1 10:53 D. Sedin (Goal) 3 on 2 rush -created by Santorelli & Hansen 3 20 21 26 47 91 1 2 8 22 25 36 5v5
Home 1 6:33 (deflection) 3 20 21 26 47 91 1 3 17 20 23 33 5v5
Home 1 6:09 Hickey (turnover - H.Sedin) 7 14 17 20 21 91 1 3 13 15 17 18 5v5
Home 1 1:07 Bailey (turnover - Edler) 7 12 14 20 51 96 1 5 22 23 25 32 5v5
Away 2 17:46 Kesler (ms) 3 17 20 47 53 1 5 17 22 23 33 4v5
Home 2 17:40 Martin (turnover H. Sedin)) 14 16 20 46 51 1 2 3 9 20 25 4v5
Home 2 15:14 Molson (Goal - rush) 20 21 26 47 51 91 1 2 8 17 20 5v4
Away 2 11:30 Welsch (rush - ms) 3 17 20 21 47 91 1 2 8 13 15 32 5v5
Home 2 10:36 Nelson (Stanton beaten 1-on1) 3 15 16 20 29 47 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
Home 2 8:12 Regin (cross ice one-timer, post) 12 15 16 20 46 96 1 2 8 15 25 5v4
Away 2 7:25 D. Sedin (from Weise) 7 13 14 17 20 53 1 2 3 22 32 33 5v5
Away 2 7:24 H. Sedin (rebound) 7 13 14 17 20 53 1 2 3 22 32 33 5v5
Home 2 7:08 Tavares (rush - around Garrison) 20 21 26 37 46 91 1 5 9 13 20 23 5v5
Home 2 3:28 Strait (rush 2 on 2) 13 17 20 37 46 53 1 5 13 15 23 32 5v5
Away 2 1:10 Bieksa (wrap around) 3 12 20 26 47 51 1 3 17 22 23 33 5v5
Away 3 16:03 Higgins ( turnover -pass from Kassian) 7 14 20 21 26 91 1 2 3 9 20 25 5v5
Away 3 15:48 Higgins (rush) 7 14 20 21 29 51 1 3 9 18 20 25 5v5
Away 3 14:16 Edler (rush from H. Sedin) 15 17 20 37 46 53 1 5 17 22 23 33 5v5
Home 3 3:14 Tavares (rebound) 15 20 26 46 51 91 1 3 15 23 25 5v4
Home 3 2:01 Clutterbuck (ms) 3 15 16 20 46 53 1 3 15 22 23 25 5v5
Home 3 1:20 Moulson 21 26 47 51 91 96 1 2 8 22 25 33 5v5
Home 3 1:13 Nelson (Goal - rebound, Tanev failed exit) 21 26 47 51 91 96 1 2 8 22 25 33 5v5
Away 4 3:27 Higgins (rush) 14 20 21 46 53 1 2 8 17 20 4v4
Away 4 2:47 Richardson (Bieksa goes to the net) 20 37 47 51 91 1 3 5 15 25 4v4

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

# Player EV PP SH
1 LUONGO, ROBERTO 13 11 1 1 0 4
2 HAMHUIS, DAN 17:55 7 3 01:05 0 1 03:00 0 2
3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 19:46 6 3 01:18 0 1 02:06 0 2
5 GARRISON, JASON 15:40 4 5 02:18 1 0 00:00 0 0
8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 18:12 4 3 00:00 0 0 03:00 0 2
9 KASSIAN, ZACK 15:28 2 1 01:05 0 1 00:00 0 0
13 WELSH, JEREMY 11:08 1 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 12:57 2 3 00:00 0 0 02:40 0 3
17 KESLER, RYAN 22:57 4 5 02:31 1 0 02:36 0 1
18 STANTON, RYAN 12:22 1 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 20:18 4 3 01:05 0 1 01:38 0 1
22 SEDIN, DANIEL 19:17 7 5 02:31 1 0 00:48 0 0
23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 22:36 4 7 02:31 1 0 02:06 0 2
25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 19:51 6 4 01:05 0 1 02:30 0 3
29 SESTITO, TOM 02:30 0 1 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
32 WEISE, DALE 08:50 3 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
33 SEDIN, HENRIK 20:05 5 5 02:31 1 0 00:00 0 0
36 HANSEN, JANNIK 04:41 3 0 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0

  • Dan Hamhuis posted a 7 -3 SCD at even strength.
  • Hamhuis had a strong possession game posting a 67% Corsi rating.
  • Kevin Bieksa also won the chance battle. He had a 6 -3 SCD .
  • However, Bieksa played a high risk/reward game with above average turnovers.
  • The Canucks ''top line' {Twins & Kesler) tied the chance battle.
  • The three stars played a combined 74 mins. (TOI).
  • Ryan Kesler played a ridiculous 28 minutes.
  • They were a combine 16-15 in SCD at even strength.
  • The Islanders played a high-chance, very loose 'eastern style' game.
  • .The Islanders power play lived up to its high ranking.
  • Their power play now ranks 3rd at 28% efficiency.
  • Pierre-Marc Bouchard was the best Islander with a 3-0 SCD.
  • In addition, Bouchard posted a 80% Corsi rating.

Statistical Three Stars

1. Dan Hamhuis

2. Roberto Luongo

3. Pierre-Marc Bouchard

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is a huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage- {Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


NY ISLANDERS


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

21

32

66%


14

30

48%

2

20

28

73%


17

23

74%

3

11

23

48%


11

25

44%









Total

52

83

63%


42

78

54%

  • The Canucks started very strongly by dominating the neutral zone.
  • The game was even in terms of OZE% for the final two periods.
  • The second period was very wide open, and coach 'Torts' was frustrated at this fact.
  • The Canucks had 42 successful 'carry in's' - The Islanders had 28.
  • OZE% indicates the Canucks ought to have created more chances than the Isles.
  • The Canucks had 10 successful 'dump ins' / 33 (32%),- & only 3 in the last 2 periods.
  • The Islanders had only 13 'dump in' wins out of 40 (33%).
  • The Canucks 'new' high pressure forecheck was mostly absent in the final 2 periods.

DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is a huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage - {Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}


VANCOUVER


NY ISLANDERS


Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

19

38

50%


14

26

44%

2

18

26

70%


17

33

52%

3

7

25

28%


14

24

58%









Total

44

89

49%


45

83

54%

  • It was a close game in terms of Defensive Zone Exits (DZE%).
  • Vancouver had strong puck moving possession in the first 2 periods.
  • A 'tired' Vancouver team played a passive 'just dump the puck out' game in the third.
  • It's clear that the Canucks can thrive in open, loose, 'eastern-style' hockey.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.


VANCOUVER

NY ISLANDERS


ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE

ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE


3.1 (.5) {.2} [.4 ] = 4.2

2.7 (1.2) {0} [0] = 3.9

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  • It was a 50/50 game.The Islanders hit the post on a clear chance in the 2nd.
  • The Canucks failed to create enough chances given their neutral zone advantage.
  • Nabokov played poorly, and his rebound control was especially suspect.
  • He allowed .6 goals above expected.
  • The Islanders' power play took advantage of their chances.
  • Roberto Luongo played well. He made highlight reel saves.
  • Luongo still must improve his rebound control and his puck handling.

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST {EPA}

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 3.5.
  • Evgenni Nabokov had an Expected Goals Against of ~ 3.4
  • Luongo rating: +5 goals.
  • Nabokov's rating: -.6 goals.
  • Luongo's performance 'looked' even better because Nabokov played poorly.
  • The Canucks finally won the goaltending battle.

TURNOVERS (Even Strength)

  • Vancouver had 21 turnover but only 3 in the final period.
  • The Islanders had 21, and 8 in the 3rd period.

Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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