FanPost

Behind The Numbers - Advanced Stats Game #10 Canucks vs. Blue Jackets

Kirk Irwin

A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & expected score from the Canucks' 3-1 loss to the Blue Jackets.

TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS


VANCOUVER

COLUMBUS


ES +(PP)+ {SH}+[OT}= Total Chances

ES (PP) {SH}+[OT] = Total Chances

1

2 (1) = 3

2 (0) = 2

2

2 (4)= 6

5 (4) = 9

3

5 (1) =6

6 (0) = 6

Total

9 (6) = 15

13 (4) = 17

  • Good News: The Canucks started strong defensively.
  • The Canucks' Power Play out-chanced the Jackets.
  • Bad News: Vancouver lost the 5 on 5 chance battle.
  • Coach 'Torts' attributed the lack of chances to the fact the team played on the perimeter.

COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY

Team Period Time Note Home Away State
Away 1 18:36 Higgins 24 31 42 47 51 3 20 23 25 31 36 4v5
Home 1 17:13 Comeau 14 17 21 27 31 71 8 9 15 18 29 31 5v5
Home 1 16:33 Gaborik (GOAL) (deflection) 7 13 17 31 38 58 5 13 18 29 31 32 5v5
Away 1 12:17 Welsch 13 17 31 38 47 51 3 13 18 29 31 32 5v5
Away 1 5:44 Santorelli 14 18 19 21 31 47 3 18 20 25 31 36 5v5
Away 2 18:31 Richardson 10 21 27 31 42 71 8 15 20 23 31 36 5v5
Home 2 17:41 Atkinson 7 13 17 31 38 58 3 7 9 15 18 31 5v5
Home 2 16:28 19 24 40 47 51 55 2 3 13 29 31 32 5v5
Home 2 16:25 Tyutin 19 24 40 47 51 55 2 3 13 29 31 32 5v5
Home 2 14:39 Tyutin 17 18 19 31 51 55 3 5 17 20 31 5v4
Away 2 13:44 D. Sedin 21 24 27 31 38 71 2 18 22 31 33 36 5v5
Home 2 13:02 Folignio 7 21 24 31 42 71 2 18 22 31 33 36 5v5
Away 2 12:06 D. Sedin 7 19 31 55 58 5 17 22 23 31 33 4v5
Away 2 11:46 Santorelli 17 24 31 47 51 3 20 22 23 31 36 4v5
Home 2 9:46 7 17 18 21 31 2 3 17 31 36 4v4
Away 2 9:21 Kesler 7 17 21 31 55 5 17 22 23 31 33 4v5
Away 2 9:19 H. Sedin (Goal) 7 17 21 31 55 5 17 22 23 31 33 4v5
Home 2 3:18 Umberger 7 10 17 31 42 51 2 8 17 31 5v3
Home 2 3:17 Anisimov 7 10 17 31 42 51 2 8 17 31 5v3
Home 2 2:49 Atkinson 13 18 19 21 31 58 3 5 15 25 31 5v4
Home 3 17:08 Johansen 14 18 19 21 27 31 2 5 22 31 33 36 5v5
Away 3 16:33 Kesler 10 31 42 47 51 55 8 17 20 23 25 31 5v5
Home 3 15:39 Anisimov 7 13 31 42 58 71 3 7 17 18 25 31 5v5
Home 3 15:16 Atkinson 13 17 21 27 31 38 2 5 22 25 31 33 5v5
Away 3 13:19 Higgins 17 21 27 31 55 2 5 17 20 31 4v4
Away 3 11:26 Kassian 31 40 47 51 55 71 2 5 7 9 15 31 5v5
Home 3 9:42 Dubinsky 7 13 17 31 38 58 2 5 17 22 25 31 5v5
Home 3 8:47 Umberger (Goal) 14 18 19 31 47 51 8 17 20 23 31 33 5v5
Away 3 6:33 D. Sedin 10 21 27 31 42 71 2 5 22 25 31 36 5v5
Home 3 5:13
7 13 17 31 38 58 3 17 20 23 31 33 5v5
Away 3 2:04 Santorelli 7 10 24 31 42 58 3 22 23 25 31 36 5v5
Away 3 0:48 Higgins 14 18 24 31 47 51 17 20 22 23 25 33 5v5

CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST

# Player EV PP SH
2 HAMHUIS, DAN 19:00 4 7 01:02 0 0 02:14 0 2
3 BIEKSA, KEVIN 17:30 3 6 01:26 2 0 01:39 0 2
5 GARRISON, JASON 18:22 3 4 02:06 3 0 02:24 0 2
7 BOOTH, DAVID 09:55 1 2 00:23 0 0 00:00 0 0
8 TANEV, CHRISTOPHER 13:30 2 2 00:00 0 0 04:32 0 2
9 KASSIAN, ZACK 09:15 1 2 00:23 0 0 00:00 0 0
13 WELSH, JEREMY 04:17 1 3 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
15 RICHARDSON, BRAD 09:47 2 2 00:23 0 0 02:36 0 1
17 KESLER, RYAN 17:23 3 5 02:16 3 0 03:24 0 3
18 STANTON, RYAN 11:30 3 5 00:07 0 0 00:00 0 0
20 HIGGINS, CHRIS 16:36 5 2 00:53 2 0 02:29 0 1
22 SEDIN, DANIEL 18:22 4 4 02:17 4 0 00:27 0 0
23 EDLER, ALEXANDER 18:13 4 2 02:23 5 0 03:03 0 0
25 SANTORELLI, MIKE 18:24 5 3 00:49 1 0 02:56 0 1
29 SESTITO, TOM 03:50 1 4 00:00 0 0 00:00 0 0
31 LACK, EDDIE 9 13 5 0 0 4
32 WEISE, DALE 04:04 1 3 00:06 0 0 00:00 0 0
33 SEDIN, HENRIK 18:24 2 5 02:05 3 0 00:27 0 0
36 HANSEN, JANNIK 17:10 5 3 01:04 2 0 00:00 0 0

  • Chris Higgins had another strong game with a 7-3 in SCD.
  • Higgins also creates extra possessions with terrific takeway skills on the forcheck.
  • Jannik Hansen, rather quietly, was also 7-3 in SCD.
  • The Canucks ''top line' {Twins & Kesler) lost the chance battle.
  • They were a combine 9-12 in SCD at even strength.
  • The Blue Jackets' played a 'western conference style game.
  • CBJ's tighter defensive was a factor in shutting down the Canucks stars.
  • Brandon Dubinsky & Cam Atkinson had strong games for the Columbus.
  • Dubinsky was 7-2 in SCD and Atkinson was 6-1 in SCD. {both at even strength}.

Statistical Three Stars:

1. Curtis McElhinney

2. Brandon Dubinsky

3.Chris Higgins

OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Exit Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.


VANCOUVER


COLUMBUS

Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

18

30

60%


12

22

54%

2

12

20

60%


11

17

65%

3

13

24

54%


18

26

69%









Total

43

74

58%


41

65

63%

  • The Canucks carried the majority of the play again.
  • However, OZE% shows that it was basically an even game in the neutral zone.
  • The Canucks gave up their blueline more than usual.- especially in the last two periods.
  • The Canucks had 33 successful 'carry in's' - Columbus had 33.
  • The Canucks had 12 successful 'dump ins' out of 38 (32%), but, only 2 period 3.
  • The Blue Jackets had only 6 'dump in' wins out of 25 (24%).
  • Columbus' forecheck system was not successful.

DEFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)

Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.


VANCOUVER


COLUMBUS

Period

Successful

Attempted

%

Successful

Attempted

%

1

18

29

62%


15

34

44%

2

11

27

41%


13

21

60%

3

16

23

70%


15

24

63%









Total

45

79

57%


43

79

54%

  • It was an even game in terms of Defensive Zone Attempts (DZA).
  • Vancouver won the 1st period decisively.
  • Penalties and fatigue slowed down the Canucks' forecheck in the final two periods.
  • The Canucks were forced into a defensive mode in the 2nd period.
  • In terms of (DZE%), Vancouver bounced back strongly in the third period.

EXPECTED SCORE

{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}


VANCOUVER

COLUMBUS


ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE

ES (PP) {SH} = TOTAL EXP. SCORE


2.3 (.9) =3.2

1.9 (1.5) = 3.4

THE DECIDING FACTORS

  1. Power Play Differential.
  • The Canucks are simply not getting their fair share of calls.
  • They currently rank 30th in opportunities per game (~2.7/gm.).
  • San Jose is first with (~5.2/gm.) - League average is (3.7/gm.).

2. Curtis McElhinney

  • He saved ~2.5 goals more than expected by an average goalie.
  • McElhinney is a 'fringe' NHL goalie. therefore, it was a unexpected performance.

3. Fatigue

  • The team played 3 games in 4 nights in 3 different cities.
  • The great NFL coach Vince Lombardi said, 'Fatigue makes cowards of us all"
  • The fourth line is still being used sparingly:
  • Weise, Sesito & Welsch played a combined 11 (TOI)!

GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST

{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.

  • Curtis McElhinney had an Expected Goals Against {EPA} of ~ 3.6.
  • Eddie Lack had an expected goals against of ~ 2.8.
  • McElhinney's rating: +2.6.
  • Lack's rating +.8.
  • Lack played above average.
  • However, the Canucks lost the goaltending battle again.

TURNOVERS (EvenStrength)

  • Vancouver had another low total of 13, but 7 in the final period.
  • Columbus had 18, but only 3 in 3rd period.

Feel free to add comments and questions below!

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