FanPost

Behind The Numbers: DUMB Power Rankings (week 1)

Okay -Time to have some fun with numbers & projections. Let me stress! These are 'dumb' rankings. They do not take into consideration injuries, strength of schedule, how good a team looks with the eye test, momentum, or last years record etc. They are based on raw stats that have been predictive of success over last 6 years. They have been regressed for small sample size and the large amount of 'luck' that is so much a part of modern 'pinball' hockey.

However, I have found them helpful to balance out our subjective impressions which can fool us depending on our bias and by placing too much or too little importance on less repeatable factors.

Still it is early so there might be some wackiness. By 20 games things should settle down. Unfortunately, Vancouver doesn't come out well. (#21) However, anyone who has watched their games knows they are lucky to be 3-2. Let's hope Torts system & Burrows and Zac can make a difference.

FWIW - I am on the record at projecting the Canucks with 92-94 pts this year finishing 4th or 5th and a battle for a wild card position. I had SJ, LA Phx & Anaheim ahead of them. I hope I''m wrong - but I feel GMMG must make a move for a 3rd Center by Christmas or early February at the latest to give the team a fair chance.

Also, I did have S.J. to come out of the west - BUT I also projected NYR in the East - So I have boom & bust covered!

Early Surprises:(positive)

ANA

Min

T.B.

(negative)

NYR

L.A.

VAN

It will be fun to chart these projections as the year goes by.

{One more thing! the projections assume that overtime & shootouts are essentially random results Or, at the least, we are unable to attach talent levels during extra time to specific teams.Therefore, teams with very good or very bad records in OT/shootout need to have their pts. totals adjusted }.

As always, your comments are appreciated! Where do you disagree?!

Team

Expected

Pts.

1

S.J

119

2

ANA

117

3

STL

117

4

MTL

116

5

MIN

115

6

PIT

113

7

T.B

113

8

PHX

112

9

DAL

108

10

BOS

108

11

OTT

106

12

CHI

98

13

CAR

97

14

COL

97

15

TOR

96

16

DET

96

PLAYOFFS

17

NYI

94

18

PHI

92

19

NSH

87

20

CGY

85

21

VAN

81

22

N.J

80

23

WPG

80

24

FLA

78

25

BUF

78

26

WSH

76

27

L.A

75

28

NYR

74

29

CBJ

72

30

EDM

69

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