Individual Canuck Projections

I have just completed my 2012/'13 projections for eight Canuck forwards and I thought I'd share them with the NM community. I have been doing my own forward projections since 2007 (mostly to help me win hockey pools) and last year I projected goals and assists for 246 forwards. My projection system is comprised of three elements; expected SOG, expected shooting percentage, and career assist-to-goal ratio. In 2008/'09 I tested my projections against The Hockey News and the Score Forecaster and my projections were proven to be statistically significant more accurate (95% confidence level).

I will post my projections (I always assume 80 GP) for the 2011/'12 team against what actually happened, then I will post my projections for the upcoming season.

2011/'12 Season

Player Projected Actual

Burrows, Alex 29G/27A/56PTS - 28G/24A/52PTS (80 GP)

Higgins, Chris 20G/17A/37PTS - 18G/25A/43PTS (71 GP)

Kesler, Ryan 34G/40A/74PTS - 22G/27A/49PTS (77 GP)

Raymond, Mason 21G/26A/47PTS - 10G/10A/20PTS (55 GP)

Sammuelson, Mikael 20G/26A/46PTS - 14G/17A/31PTS (54 GP) **Traded to Florida

Sedin, Daniel 35G/57A/92PTS - 30G/37A/67PTS (72 GP)

Sedin, Henrik 20G/65A/85PTS - 14G/67A/81PTS (82 GP)

Booth, David 26G/23A/49PTS - 16G/14A/30PTS (62 GP) **Acquired from Florida

2012/'13 Season

Player Projected

Booth, David 23G/21A/44PTS

Burrows, Alex 30G/29A/59PTS

Higgins, Chris 19G/18A/37PTS

Kassian, Zack 22G/33A/55PTS

Kesler, Ryan 30G/36A/66PTS

Raymond, Mason 17G/21A/38PTS

Sedin, Daniel 33G/52A/85PTS

Sedin, Henrik 19G/63A/82PTS

The one that most likely stands out to people is Zack Kassian scoring 22G with 33A. How I came to this was 180 exSOG (expected SOG), with a 12% exSH%, combined with a 1.533 A/G ratio across the NHL, AHL, and OHL. For players that haven't played 200 NHL games, I use their pro/amateur career numbers to help project A/G ratio. 180 exSOG also assumes top 6 minutes, which was derived from his NHL numbers and his 30 AHL games played this season. 12% was used because of his player profile resembles higher percentage shooters. I have historically had a harder time projecting players with under 100 games of NHL experience, and I don't even bother with rookies.

Let me know what you think, and I'd be happy to answer any questions you have about my projection methods.

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.