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Individual Canuck Projections

I have just completed my 2012/'13 projections for eight Canuck forwards and I thought I'd share them with the NM community. I have been doing my own forward projections since 2007 (mostly to help me win hockey pools) and last year I projected goals and assists for 246 forwards. My projection system is comprised of three elements; expected SOG, expected shooting percentage, and career assist-to-goal ratio. In 2008/'09 I tested my projections against The Hockey News and the Score Forecaster and my projections were proven to be statistically significant more accurate (95% confidence level).

I will post my projections (I always assume 80 GP) for the 2011/'12 team against what actually happened, then I will post my projections for the upcoming season.

2011/'12 Season

Player Projected Actual

Burrows, Alex 29G/27A/56PTS - 28G/24A/52PTS (80 GP)

Higgins, Chris 20G/17A/37PTS - 18G/25A/43PTS (71 GP)

Kesler, Ryan 34G/40A/74PTS - 22G/27A/49PTS (77 GP)

Raymond, Mason 21G/26A/47PTS - 10G/10A/20PTS (55 GP)

Sammuelson, Mikael 20G/26A/46PTS - 14G/17A/31PTS (54 GP) **Traded to Florida

Sedin, Daniel 35G/57A/92PTS - 30G/37A/67PTS (72 GP)

Sedin, Henrik 20G/65A/85PTS - 14G/67A/81PTS (82 GP)

Booth, David 26G/23A/49PTS - 16G/14A/30PTS (62 GP) **Acquired from Florida

2012/'13 Season

Player Projected

Booth, David 23G/21A/44PTS

Burrows, Alex 30G/29A/59PTS

Higgins, Chris 19G/18A/37PTS

Kassian, Zack 22G/33A/55PTS

Kesler, Ryan 30G/36A/66PTS

Raymond, Mason 17G/21A/38PTS

Sedin, Daniel 33G/52A/85PTS

Sedin, Henrik 19G/63A/82PTS

The one that most likely stands out to people is Zack Kassian scoring 22G with 33A. How I came to this was 180 exSOG (expected SOG), with a 12% exSH%, combined with a 1.533 A/G ratio across the NHL, AHL, and OHL. For players that haven't played 200 NHL games, I use their pro/amateur career numbers to help project A/G ratio. 180 exSOG also assumes top 6 minutes, which was derived from his NHL numbers and his 30 AHL games played this season. 12% was used because of his player profile resembles higher percentage shooters. I have historically had a harder time projecting players with under 100 games of NHL experience, and I don't even bother with rookies.

Let me know what you think, and I'd be happy to answer any questions you have about my projection methods.

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