Behind The Numbers: Scoring Chance Data/Analysis

Apr 18, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Vancouver Canucks players Ryan Kesler (17) , Alexander Edler (23), left wing Daniel Sedin (22) and Dan Hamhuis (22) react after a Canucks goal during the second period in game four of the 2012 Western Conference quarterfinals against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE
"The Waiting is the Hardest Part" (T. Petty).

The long break between game 4 and 5 provides us a good chance to look more closely at the series so far. Today we'll look at 'scoring chances', for the teams and for individual players. Take a look behind the numbers after the jump.

Scoring Chances are another fundamental stat in (AHS). For a detailed explanation on how/why they are recorded check here. Coaches and players often refer to scoring chances (SC) as the best way to evaluate their individual and team performance. So let's follow that path, andstart by looking at the team numbers:

ES (CF) PP (CF) (CF/M) SH (CF) (CF/M) Total (CF)
Vancouver 46 8 31% 6 15% 60
Los Angeles 44 12 31% 8 31% 64

{All data from nhl.com/canucks.army.com/my own records}

These numbers show it has been, as predicted, a very tight series, Even strength has been a saw-off. This should be good news for Canuck fans as now that Daniel Sedin has returned, he scales should tip slightly in Vancouver's favor.

And, when we factor in the large advantage the KIngs have had in power play time (3:2). Both power plays are creating chances at an equal rate. These numbers indicate a 2-2 series! However, of course, most shockingly is the fact that the Kings shorthanded are producing at the same chance % as either teams power play! We pointed out this stat is not an anomaly as:

The Canucks have allowed SHG in the playoffs at a rate 3-4 times above league average since 2006

The Kings two shorthanded goals are now clearly the difference in the series. Does the fact the coaches have not corrected this weakness in 5 years, indicate a inadequacy in the team's coaching staff?

Let's now take a look a chances for and against for players for the time they are on the ice.

{*ECF% is even chances for / minutes played }

First Vancouver:

Player

ECF

ECA


D. HAMHUIS

18

22


K. BIEKSA

25

22


K. BALLARD

4

8


S. SALO

9

12


D. BOOTH

18

12


C. TANEV

11

10


Z. KASSIAN

6

5


A. BURROWS

17

13


R. KESLER

16

13


C. HIGGINS

7

12


M. RAYMOND

12

11


A. EDLER

23

12


S.PAHLSSON

5

14


M.MALHOTRA

7

9


D. SEDIN

4

4


H. SEDIN

23

15


J. HANSEN

12

16


M. LAPIERRE

9

7


ECF%

ECA%

ETOI

28%

34%

16

35%

31%

18

10%

21%

13

19%

25%

12

33%

22%

13.5

21%

19%

13.

30%

25%

5

33%

25%

13

29%

24%

13.5

16%

27%

11

27%

25%

11

36%

19%

16

11%

31%

11.

29%

38%

6

26%

26%

15.5

37%

24%

15.5

24%

31%

12.5

25%

19%

9

{These stats do not include an adjustment the quality of competition that each player has faced}

Random observations:

  • Higgins has the same TOI as Mason Raymond?For a team having trouble scoring, Shouldn't Higgins be playing more?
  • Offensively the Canucks are again a two-line hockey team
  • Henrik has been Henrik
  • The Canucks do not have a fourth line again
  • S. Pahlsson on the ice for 5 SCF in 4 games? Cody Hodgson where are you??
  • The Canucks have already scored 3 goals in the series that were not scoring chances,therefore, they have had their share of luck in the series! Still, coach Vigneault and GM Gillis (in the last 24 hrs) have repeatedly referred to the team "finally getting a bounce" in Game 4 (Richard's deflection).They are deluding themselves and the fans/media. Rather,the numbers show that coaching strategy, team discipline and execution has been the difference so far, not puck-luck (bounces).

Los Angeles:

Player

ECF

ECA


M. GREENE

12

9


R. SCUDERI

12

23


D.DOUGHTY

14

29


M.RICHARDS

12

15


A. KOPITAR

19

19


J. WILLIAMS

18

17


T. LEWIS

9

11


D. BROWN

19

21


C. FRASER

7

10


D. PENNER

9

12


S. VOYNOV

19

14


A.MARTINEZ

9

14


J. STOLL

8

15


W.MITCHELL

24

15


J. NOLAN

5

6


D. KING

9

13


J. CARTER

10

15


ECF%

ECA%

ETOI

29%

22%

10.3

18%

35%

16.5

19%

39%

18.5

23%

29%

13

34%

34%

14

33%

31%

13.5

20%

25%

11

33%

36%

14.5

22%

31%

8

21%

29%

10.5

34%

25%

14.1

21%

33%

10.5

21%

39%

9.7

36%

22%

16.7

21%

25%

6

19%

27%

12

20%

30%

12.3

{These stats do not include an adjustment the quality of competition that each player has faced}

  • Willie Mitchell is the leader in (ECF%) in the series?!! Talk about a player who is motivated against his ex-team!

Just a quick post to spark a discussion. Your thoughts? Questions?

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