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Trade Hodgson this season.

Cody_hodgson_vancouver_canucks_v_anaheim_ducks_h6uy2v0sa0wl_medium

Cody has been playing great for us. He's performed above and beyond all reasonable expectations and has been a difference maker in many games. I'm absolutely in love with this kid, and I think he's destined to be a star. But nonetheless I think we should try and trade him this season, with more focus than we should be trying to trade Schneider (that I would delay until the off-season).

Why? Because he's not a star yet, but assuming he does become the all-star caliber player as I expect, he's not going to be able to fit on a team that already has Ryan Kesler and Henrik Sedin up the middle. Not in terms of ice time and not in term of capspace. It's possible, although so far a failed experiment, he could be converted to a winger, but that will likely further prolong his development process. And in any event, the Canucks are a team that has a maybe 2 or 3 year cup window. I don't think the expectation is that Hodgson will be a star within that timeframe. But he may be able to fetch us one in exchange. It's that simple. And with the numbers he's put up this season, and some particularly impressive highlights to boot (every GM watched that Boston game), his value right now is high, especially for a team in rebuilding mode.

Star-divide

Option 1 - Stud 2nd Line Winger

My theory is that a package of Hodgson, Raymond, Ballard (to even out cap space) and draft picks might be enough to net us one of the elite wingers that are supposedly available--such as Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan or Rick Nash. I'd prefer the prior two as they have experience playing on good teams (which I think matters for attitude) and both are much lower cap hits. I feel like this could be realistic, but I'll leave to all y'all to judge. We would probably want to get a depth forward and a depth defenceman as well, either through the same trade or supplementary trades. The result:

Sedin-Sedin-Burr
Booth-Kesler-[Nash][Ryan][Perry]
Higgins-Lappy-Hansen
Ebbett-Malhotra-Weise

(F depth: Reinprecht, Bitz, Mancari, Duco, Sweatt, Oreskovich, Schroeder + new depth)

Hamhuis-Bieksa
Edler-Salo
Rome-Alberts

(D depth: Sulzer, Tanev, Connaughton, Erixon, Baumgartner, Sauve, Parent + new depth)

Luongo-Schneider

(G depth: Lack, Climie)

Option 2 - One of them Nashville D-men

We could try and shore up defence, but the only players available that would be worth including Hodgson in a trade for are Suter or Weber, and I don't know if we'd be able to beat competitors if either of those guys actually become available, since Nashville is not in rebuilding mode. I would suggest a package of Edler and Hodgson for Weber or Suter and some exchange of draft picks might be required as well. We would not be able to throw in Raymond or another top 9 forward in such a deal as we would just be too thin in scoring depth under such a circumstance, and the need for roster depth is not to be overlooked. Again, I'm skeptical that this would be enough to land one of those big two, and it is completely hypothetical that either would even be available.

What you all think, Nucksmisconduct? Would you be willing to up the ante and throw in Schneider in one of these trades as the kicker (obviously Nashville would have no interest in that, but Columbus or Anaheim likely would)?

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Perry and Kesler does't work

Maybe Nash, still not enough pucks to go around. Besides, isn’t the value here really about having something for the future? Our forwards aren’t the problem and short of trading the Sedins any added forward isn’t going to have that much impact. In other words, we sell our future and don’t really increase the likelihood of winning now. It’s fun to rosterbate but the only thing this team lacks is a stud dman and those don’t come available for trade very often.

by Canuckelhead on Jan 9, 2012 9:53 AM PST reply actions  

i think the best of those fits

is Bobby Ryan
and i disagree bulking up on offence is unnecessary. see SCF last year.

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 9, 2012 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

A resurgent MayRay, + healthy Booth + much better CoHo + better Beaker/Higgy makes the team even more dangerous in my opinion. They are probably the biggest reason why the general Vancouver populace isn’t complaining about the Sedin and Kesler’s regressed production.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 10:16 AM PST up reply actions  

BTW. if we were going to target any forward. I want Parise. Parise > Ryan > Nash > Perry.

If we DO swing a trade for one of them…. Does Bettman veto that trade? /smug.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 10:17 AM PST up reply actions  

i'd like parise as well

but that’d have to be a sign-and-trade
because he’s a UFA at the end of the year, and CoHo and bait for no rental!
the guys i listed are all signed at least until the end of next year

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 9, 2012 10:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Not a bad sell-high idea.....

But, I question if we are selling at the highest. Yes, it’s all about retrospect, and that one devastating injury can render your asset to nil. But, ultimately, It depends on how you interpret the cap situation. CoHo’s contract ends after the 2012-13 season, at which point, we have a plethora of forwards to re-sign, but also a ton of cap-space to play with. I don’t think MG did this by accident, scheduling Manny, Burr, Higgy and Lappy’s contract to end all at the same time.

My biggest question about this, though, is why now? It seems like GMMG and AV has come to a consensus that the problematic 4th line quandary shall be solved by this simple solution. Not icing a 4th line at all. Lappy/Manny and “x” has been largely called upon to be our checking-line, and to great effect. If anything, I would like management to make a minor trade to pry a vet checking forward from Anaheim or Columbus or Nashville for futures/picks/prospects like Schroeder… (who I actually cant’ see fitting in to our system) . That leaves 3 full lines, putting opponents on its heels for 50ish minutes a night.

No, the long-term viability of this strategy will likely fail, especially with Burr, Higgy, CoHo and Edler due for big raises. But that’s still 1 full season away. I would hate to give up a blue-chip prospect that’s finally prospering and developing into his own in the big leagues for a rental who may, or may not fit into the system, and only for a short term gain. The likes of Weber and Suters are salivating, but in terms of cap-constraints, will be even more difficult to deal with than our existing cap problems.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 10:14 AM PST up reply actions  

yes

but none of those guys i mentioned would be rentals
i agree you never know about fit into the system, though

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 9, 2012 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m getting the real NHL mixed up with my NHL12 GM mode. /heh. Sorry Bean.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 10:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Can you explain why

Perry and Kesler doesn’t work?

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by Mike Feeney on Jan 12, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

my guess

both are a shoot first mentality….and if they are on the same line, which they probably would be, they would need a third guy to dish out the puck. But who knows

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by westy99 on Jan 12, 2012 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought

he was the Franchise. The future.

"I'll play on one leg, I don't care." - Ryan Kesler

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by Chuckles Canuckles on Jan 9, 2012 10:56 AM PST reply actions  

Okay

Doc Brown.

"I'll play on one leg, I don't care." - Ryan Kesler

Nucks Misconduct's official black guy and first line center

by Chuckles Canuckles on Jan 10, 2012 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I dunno beantown

i’m not sure trading away our brightest prospect is the wisest idea. Sure, we have hank and kesler ahead of him on the center, but let’s face it, the sedins aren’t getting any younger. They may have 3 or 4 more seasons, but I don’t see much beyond that…I suspect we’ll start to see dropoffs in production next season, and they’re bound to become a bit more injury prone too. No, I say we keep CoHo, run three terrifying lines and groom him as the centerpiece to the next generation. Like some others here, I’d be open to a stud d-man before another mid-career forward.

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Dropping F-bombs since the early 70's.
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by Twitchy2010 on Jan 9, 2012 12:56 PM PST reply actions  

the other consideration is

chemistry. Can you put kesler, booth and any of those wingers mentioned on the same line? Shit, we already have two guys on that line who have a low inclination to pass the puck…imagine a third? All I see is frustrated fans, or frustrated players, or both.

"Planet Earth is blue, and there's nothing I can do."
Dropping F-bombs since the early 70's.
'Nucks Misconduct Sr. VP of Inappropriateness and Questionable Conduct, second director of immaturity.

by Twitchy2010 on Jan 9, 2012 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

not his first instinct though

wrist shot!

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by westy99 on Jan 9, 2012 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah that was my point

kesler is always more inclined to try and skate thru a wall or take a long shot thru traffic than pass. And that’s not necessarily a horrible thing, just 3 guys like that on the same line would be frustrating as all fuck.

"Planet Earth is blue, and there's nothing I can do."
Dropping F-bombs since the early 70's.
'Nucks Misconduct Sr. VP of Inappropriateness and Questionable Conduct, second director of immaturity.

by Twitchy2010 on Jan 9, 2012 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

That's not necessarily true

his first big breakout season was a season where he had vastly more assists than goals. He isn’t a shoot first guy or a pass first guy. He is a “whatever it takes to win first” guy.

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by Mike Feeney on Jan 12, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

This year has been different

he has been a guy who has been trying to force the wrist shot through the defenceman. At even strength he is not an assist guy. He had 16 ES assists last year and is on pace for 19 this year. (6th on the team) He is a shooter.

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by westy99 on Jan 12, 2012 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

While I would like Nash

and a cup this year, it would definitely leave us a wee bit fucked after 2012-13. Burrows, Hodgson, Higgins, Malhotra, Lapierre and Edler contracts are all up and probably due raises.

Do we want another large cap hit for the next 4 years which will limit which 3rd and 4th liners we can go after?

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by westy99 on Jan 9, 2012 1:22 PM PST reply actions  

and impossible to assume their values will drop. Burr, Edler, Hodgson are definitely due for (HUGE) raises.

Worse, no guarantees of winning the cup, despite Nash acquisition.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 1:53 PM PST up reply actions  

exactly

we need to start thinking about all our core players who have contracts ending in only a year and a half from now.

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by missy on Jan 9, 2012 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I dunno about Manny. He’ll be 33 with at least one horrifying injury under his belt. If other teams are lining up to give him more than 2.5, God bless’m, I’ll drive him to the airport.

by Passive Voice on Jan 9, 2012 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t think he commands 2.5 again, either. The injury and age factors in, so does the fact his stats hardly show the production he’s worth. That’s actually something I thought about a bit. Lappy/Manny are playing tough minutes, which artificially deflates their stat profiles, does that also artificially deflate their value?

Knowing GMMG as a pretty reasonable GM with his agent background, I doubt he’ll use this just to screw them over though.

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 10, 2012 8:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I doubt he’ll use this just to screw them over though.

He’d damn well better :)

by Passive Voice on Jan 10, 2012 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Sedin-Sedin-Kesler
Booth-Hodgson-Raymond

Problem solved.

by marcness52 on Jan 9, 2012 3:15 PM PST reply actions  

No Burr? Or do you want him playing the third line?

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by Vancouverguy on Jan 9, 2012 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Fucking Christ, God bless you Beantown

I don’t know if I can handle any more jabbering about Saturday’s game. Anyway, to arguing!

he’s not a star yet, but assuming he does become the all-star caliber player as I expect, he’s not going to be able to fit on a team that already has Ryan Kesler and Henrik Sedin up the middle

I don’t think this is true. I think there’s a clear spot for a stereotypical “second line center” (ie. a guy who can play in both zones, K Ps, be part of a decent second PP unit, what have you) between defense-oriented Kes and all-offense Hank (actually, basically what Kes was last year [but not with the twins on the PP], when Manny taking the all-defense role). More generally, teams should always be able to find room for good players, and Coho, as you say, looks to be just that.

But anyway, that doesn’t invalidate the rest of the discussion.

I worry about the cost of Weber. Say he were to agree to a JBo-like deal, something on the order of 35m over 5 years. For next year, is Weber+4th liner at ~7.5m better than Edler and Hodgson at 4.9? That’d take some convincing.

I’d prefer to get Nicklas Grossman—Weber without the offense. The problem is the fucking Stars are probably just average enough to be 7th-10th by trade deadline day, and might not want to move him for futures. But he’s big and meanish and Swedish, and Dallas is awash in unremarkable defensemen, and there’s evidence Nieuwendyk is a dummy and might just ignore the fact that Grossman is the one of the few who’s shown an ability to play against tough minutes.

by Passive Voice on Jan 9, 2012 3:24 PM PST reply actions  

Gary Roberts

is a freaking genius and CoHo deserves a ton of credit for busting his ass off with his workout/food regime (and input from others I gather) to get back on the right track for a solid pro career. If GMMG trades a player who works that hard he would be an idiot.

by Linden4evah on Jan 9, 2012 8:11 PM PST reply actions  

again

i have othing but praise for CoHo
and if I thought we had a long window, fuck no i wouldn’t trade him
but I think we can trade CoHo for pieces that are better, in the next 2 years, than CoHo will be in the next 2 years… that’s the assumption I assert as my premise.

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 10, 2012 8:56 PM PST up reply actions  

speaking of PITB

this is an awesome gif from one of their commentors:

"Planet Earth is blue, and there's nothing I can do."
Dropping F-bombs since the early 70's.
'Nucks Misconduct Sr. VP of Inappropriateness and Questionable Conduct, second director of immaturity.

by Twitchy2010 on Jan 10, 2012 9:46 AM PST up reply actions  

I regret to disagree with another lawyer...

…but I’m sorry Bean, you are wrong on this one. :)

I agree with everything Harrison Mooney has recently said on this subject, as linked above.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 10, 2012 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

harrison's is more about a long term plan

i’m more about putting it all on the line for now
i’ll worry about the future in the future

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 10, 2012 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

The team is built on the Detroit model Bean

we want to be very good for a long time. That means having guys like CoHo moving up from 3rd to 1st line much like the Sedins, Kesler et al did

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by vancitydan on Jan 11, 2012 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

well you can afford to do that

when you’re winning cups with guys like dats and zett being third liners
are we winning cups with CoHo on the third line? did we win one with kes or the sedins there?

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 11, 2012 10:04 AM PST up reply actions  

come on man

one team in 30 wins the Cup. A LOT more than just talent goes into that. Thats not what I said at all either. I said they want to be good for a long time. You need a pipeline of talent moving up for that.

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by vancitydan on Jan 11, 2012 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

that's a perfectly fine plan

like i said, i understand that and respect that
and if i were detroit, i would go for that
but the canucks have NEVER won and are itching for the cup in the next 2 years or so
and i’m fine with risking a few years of crap down the road
for a slightly better shot now

by Beantown Canuck on Jan 12, 2012 8:11 AM PST up reply actions  

I can TOTALLY

respect that.

I have been a fan since I was 7, and would like a Cup before I die ( hell, before 50!)

I just think our team can do both

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by vancitydan on Jan 12, 2012 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

I guess I just don’t see that stripping the 3rd line to help the 2nd line (especially once Booth and Higgins are back at 100%) makes sense at this point.

I’d be slightly more willing to deal Hodgson for a d-man, but that would require a contract extension before I’d even consider it.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 11, 2012 6:08 AM PST up reply actions  

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Canucks Stats

Stat

Forwards

Defense

Points

H. Sedin (72)

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Goals

D. Sedin (30)

Edler (11)

Assists

H. Sedin (59)

Edler (34)

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Edler (3.25)

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Malhotra (2.42)

Hamhuis (2.88)

Corsi Rel QoC

Pahlsson (1.008)

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D. Sedin (80%)
Malhotra (12%)

Edler (58%)
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