How did they do? 2010-2011 Canuck forwards
The Sedins reviewing tape from round 1 against Chicago
(via Zandberg)
Since the head honchos around here have decided to forgo taking a retrospect at the Canucks past season, stat wise, I've taken it upon myself to do their job for them! Of course, I'm going to look at things in a slightly different way than might be normal, because that's how I roll.
I'm going to look at the stats for each line as one unit, as a lot of what I'll be talking about is line dependent. I'll be looking at both regular season and playoffs, so be forewarned there may be cuss and punching your monitor inducing stats on the way
Before we start, a quick rundown of what we're looking at here:
TOI - Time on Ice.
G,A,P/60 - Goals, Assists and Points per 60 minutes of ice time.
GFON,GAON/60 - Goals For, and Against per 60 minutes of ice time while the player is on the ice
On ice SH% - The shooting percentage of the team while the player is on the ice. Not of the player himself
On ice SV% - The save percentage of the goaltender while the player is on the ice.
Ozone% - The percentage of the players shifts that start in the offensive zone (for a faceoff)
All the stats that are "per 60 minutes" mean "if the player could play 60 minutes in one game, this is how many whatevers (goals, assists, etc) he would get". I have put the save percentages for Luongo and Schneider as a reference as well.
All these stats are for 5on5 ice time.
Regular Season:
SV% for Luongo: 934, for Schneider: 933
Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Alexandre Burrows
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| D Sedin | 14.32 | 1.18 | 1.94 | 3.12 | 3.73 | 2.09 | 1.64 | 10.96 | 927 | 74.5 |
| H Sedin | 14.99 | 0.49 | 2.29 | 2.78 | 3.66 | 2.34 | 1.32 | 10.59 | 919 | 71.4 |
| Burrows | 13.58 | 1.47 | 1.29 | 2.76 | 3.62 | 2.15 | 1.47 | 10.83 | 927 | 70.5 |
Mason Raymond - Ryan Kesler - Mikael Samuelsson
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| Raymond | 12.89 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 2.06 | 2.59 | 2.19 | 0.4 | 7.33 | 918 | 55.6 |
| Kesler | 13.91 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 2.00 | 2.95 | 1.95 | 1.00 | 8.42 | 928 | 50.0 |
| Samuelsson | 13.78 | 0.75 | 1.04 | 1.80 | 2.61 | 2.09 | 0.52 | 8.14 | 926 | 49.1 |
Jannik Hansen - Manny Malhotra - Raffi Torres
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| Hansen | 12.02 | 0.55 | 1.09 | 1.64 | 2.37 | 1.58 | 0.79 | 8.06 | 945 | 34.3 |
| Malhotra | 12.37 | 0.47 | 1.01 | 1.48 | 2.29 | 1.68 | 0.61 | 8.72 | 944 | 25.0 |
| Torres | 11.56 | 0.71 | 0.9 | 1.62 | 2.21 | 1.95 | 0.26 | 7.78 | 936 | 29.6 |
I left out the 4th line because there wasn't much consistency there. I also didn't use Higgins or Lapierre because their stats included their substantial time with their previous teams, which would throw things off.
What jumps out first to me is how easy it is to segregate the lines based on zone starts. Ridiculous offensive zone starts? Must be the Sedins. Ridiculously low? Must be the Malhotra line.
The second thing that jumps out? Look at the on ice SV% for the third line. Holy smokes. The designated "win this defensive draw and get it out of the zone" line looks like it did its job incredibly well. There aren't many other players with that low a Ozone% and that high an on ice SV%. In fact, for players with Ozone% less than 40%, all three are in the top 6 (Hansen 2nd, Manny 3rd, Raffi 6th), and the other three all have higher zone start percentages (Vernon Fiddler in first is only just 1 percent higher than Hansen though).
Important note about the Sedin line and the On Ice shooting %. Many would say that is high, and due for a regression, but the last three years they have always been over 10%, so I believe they are just better at setting up linemates for goals (at least in the regular season. gulp). As I think we can all attest to.
Playoffs: (buckle up)
SV% for Luongo: 931, for Schneider: 918
I have highlighted pertinent information
Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Alexandre Burrows
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| D Sedin | 15.76 | 0.61 | 0.76 | 1.37 | 2.28 | 3.05 | -0.76 | 6.82 | 882 | 67.2 |
| H Sedin | 16.39 | 0.15 | 1.32 | 1.46 | 2.05 | 2.93 | -0.88 | 6.70 | 887 | 65.0 |
| Burrows | 15.80 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 1.67 | 2.28 | 2.73 | -0.46 | 7.69 | 898 | 68.1 |
- One word: Ouch
- Look at that team SV%. The Sedins do not work well in their own zone
- The shooting percentage fell off a cliff from the regular season. It's not terrible, but instead of "excellent" it's now "below terrible", which is a pretty big fall. You think guys have figured out how to shut down the Sedins?
Christopher Higgins - Ryan Kesler - Mason Raymond / Mikael Samuelsson
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| Higgins | 14.09 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.02 | 1.36 | 0.85 | 0.51 | 4.88 | 968 | 53.4 |
| Kesler | 15.53 | 0.46 | 1.08 | 1.55 | 1.85 | 1.55 | 0.31 | 6.35 | 938 | 47.6 |
| Raymond | 13.88 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.72 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 4.58 | 948 | 51.9 |
| Samuelsson | 13.58 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 1.61 | 2.41 | -0.80 | 5.56 | 914 | 54.1 |
- You could call this "Death to Scoring Chances: The Line". Seriously.
- At least Higgins and Raymond were defensively responsible
- Sammy had a pretty rough go, but I think his multiple injuries requiring surgeries played a part in that
Raffi Torres - Maxim Lapierre - Jannik Hansen
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| Torres | 11.47 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 1.59 | 1.82 | 1.36 | 0.45 | 7.21 | 946 | 35.1 |
| Lapierre | 12.25 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.98 | 1.37 | 0.98 | 0.39 | 5.65 | 965 | 29.1 |
| Hansen | 13.45 | 0.54 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 1.96 | 0.71 | 1.25 | 6.71 | 972 | 36.8 |
- Here we have what I'm going to refer to as Team Awesome
- Torres produced points at basically exactly the same rate in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. At the same G/A ratio. Impressive. This is why we'll miss him
- Hansen was a defensive beast. Less than 3/4 of a goal per 60 minutes? And a 972 on ice SV%? All I have to say about that is this:
Tanner Glass - Cody Hodgson - Victor Oreskovich
| TOI | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/-ON/60 | On ice SH% | On ice SV% | Ozone% | |
| Glass | 7.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.07 | -2.07 | 0.00 | 934 | 31.4 |
| Hodgson | 6.40 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 3.91 | -3.13 | 2.70 | 880 | 47.4 |
| Oreskovich | 6.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.05 | -3.05 | 0.00 | 903 | 30.6 |
- I feel like a bull looking at a Matador here. So much red
- It's the 4th (ish) line, so you don't expect them to do much, but Oreskovich and Glass both had no points, and weren't on the ice for a single goal for.
- Meanwhile they were on the ice for too many. That's not the kind of ratio you want your 4th line to be having.
- These guys started a lot of time in their own end and it showed. Contrast that to the third line, which also started a lot in it's own end but fared much better off, and you can see the value those guys have on the defensive end
So what's the takeaway on all this?
- The Sedins score a lot. And are good at increasing the shooting % of their teammates. At least during the regular season
- They also get scored on a lot. They got absolutely manhandled during the playoffs. Please work on defense and caring in your own zone guys. Thanks
- Kesler really, really, really, really needs a winger that do something. Regular season wise his line did okay, but he was carrying the load there (look at the G/60 for him compared to Raymond and Sammy). In the playoffs they all fell off a cliff offense wise
- The third line was Money. Even when Manny wasn't on it in the playoffs. Also, Hansen is pretty decent defensively. When you consistently have the best on ice SV% of all the lines, I don't think it's a fluke.
- Fourth line was a trainwreck in the playoffs. Hopefully having Lapierre there full time next year will help out.
- CAVEAT: I know that on ice SV% can be considered more "luck based" and one could argue that the players aren't getting the support from the goaltender, but I think it's also a two way street
Please find some magic second players
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Interesting take...
…but I think you’re grossly misusing on-ice save percentage.
Canucks fans talking about the Canucks: Pass it To Bulis!
It's totally possible
But I think it paints a pretty decent picture of who is doing well in their own end
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
How so? Not much point in stating that someone is misusing a stat without providing your opinion as to the proper interpretation of it.
Semi, I assume stats come from behind the net?
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Jul 15, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah
Behindthenet.ca
Your one stop shop for fun time stats
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
My apologies...
…for not clarifying. It was a flyby comment due to being in a rush at the time. I made the assumption others would jump in.
Normally, on-ice save percentage is used not as an indicator to how well a team is playing in front of their goalie but instead as an indicator of how a goalie’s performance or luck is influencing a player’s stats. Put the on-ice save percentage with the on-ice shooting percentage and you get a player’s PDO, which is going to be a number around 1000. In general, a player’s PDO will regress to 1000 over time. Exceptional players who can sustain a high shooting percentage and players who play in front of a phenomenal goaltender may be able to sustain a number above 1000 and the reverse may be true for terrible players who can’t hit the net or teams playing in front of Vesa Toskala.
The point is, large variances from the mean of 1000 can generally be attributed to luck. The Sedins got absolutely no support from Luongo in the playoffs when they were on the ice. At the same time, their on-ice shooting percentages dropped from their regular season levels. You can go a couple ways with this information: you could conclude that the opposition figured out how to shut down the Sedins and that they are awful defensively. Or, you could conclude that they faced some hot goaltenders and had some bad luck as the puck refused to bounce their way in the offensive end and constantly bounced the opposition’s way in the defensive end.
This is why the storyline in the playoffs about the Sedins’ plus/minus totals was so infuriating. The stat-heads least favorite phrase, “watch the damn game,” can be used quite fittingly here: watching the game gave a completely different impression of how the Sedins were performing. Goal after goal was scored on the Canucks while they were on the ice that was clearly not their fault, either being the result of a gaffe on the part of Luongo or some hellacious bad luck. Meanwhile, they were getting stymied again and again by fantastic goaltending and incredibly bad luck.
Looking at their CORSI numbers, it’s clear that they were still dominating possession of the puck, in fact to a greater extent than they did in the regular season. All the on-ice save/shooting percentages show is that this possession did not lead to the results they wanted.
Canucks fans talking about the Canucks: Pass it To Bulis!
The Sedins got no support from Luongo?
The guy pitched two shutouts both with the added pressure of having no room for error. They can control the puck all they want in the offensive zone, it doesn’t do much good if they aren’t generating chances. I think it’s pretty clear that Luongo got no support from his forwards in the Finals.
by Canuckelhead on Jul 15, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I hated the
Plus/minus narrative of the Sedins as well, but they were responsible for many goals against as well. There were many times when they got out worked in their own zone and it led to a goal.
I know that on ice SV% can be pretty luck based, but when a guy has pretty similar numbers from regular season to playoffs (like the third line), I don’t think it’s just all luck.
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
On ice save % may be somewhat luck based
But over a large sample size like four playoff series I think it can be pretty indicative of the quality of a player’s defensive zone coverage. In other words, when the Sedins are on the ice they let the opposition have too many quality scoring chances.
When the Sedins and Ehrhoff were on the ice together you had a brewing pot for odd man rushes. And neither of the Sedins, Burrows (who is probably in a tangled heap behind the oppositions net at the time), or Ehrhoff has the size to clear the front of the net when opposing third liners come crashing into Luongo’s crease. So that leaves Edler with the responsibility of trying to stop several of what are essentially 3-1 opportunities every game. Therefore low on ice save %.
I blame AV for not doing something to rectifying this glaring hole in his defense. Granted, he didn’t have Hamhuis to work with for pretty much the whole Boston series, so maybe he felt that he needed to outscore rather than out defend Boston when the Sedins were on the ice.
If you want to dig the narrative around the sedins – and more interestingly for the SCF, I feel two aspects are missing.
First, defense: who’s the D pair behind them and its health status, who is the D pair in front of them. (the Boston serie is still way to sore in my book to dig the figures, I promise to do it in september)
Second: where in the world is Carmen San Diego the power play?
I would like to point that the sample is small small smalll, but the twins PDO during these playoffs on the PP is 811 and 815… doomed!
True
But I wasn’t looking at the PP. All of those numbers are just for 5on5
I’m also going to do a follow up on the defense, and who played most with who
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
“You think guys have figured out how to shut down the Sedins?”
Toews, Crosby, Zetturburg, and Datsyuk have had similar troubles in their respective cup runs. The Sedins are not faulty compared to these four, and the difference is these individuals are fortunate to have been on the right side of history so far.
For whatever reason, it’s okay for it to be the dead puck era during the playoffs, and it’s why you need scoring depth.
Toews, Crosby, Zetturburg, and Datsyuk have had similar troubles in their respective cup runs
I would argue that is not the case at all. Toews had on ice shooting of 9.33 (down from 9.5 during regular season), Crosby 11.06 (up from 11.02) , Dats and Zetterberg both around 8.5 (down from 10.7 and 9.6) during their Cup runs.
None of those guys had as much “bad luck” as the Sedins did. Everyone put up similar numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
Absolutely agree with that lat sentence and I find it completely mind-blowing!
Fron my newbie point of view that doesn’t make absolutely NO sense.
The moment the playoffs begin, it’s like interference doesn’t exist anymore and holding is not an infraction… of course the game played the way the sedin play it suffers a lot from it.
Don't you see?
If you slow the game down less players will get hurt. Get used to seeing a lot more interference, it was less about the playoffs and more about a decision that was made by the league to avoid concussions after Crosby was out for so long. Three seasons ago there’s now way Boston gets past the lightning. Get used to seeing defense first teams going deep into the playoffs again. Especially given the follow the champion model most NHL teams use.
by Canuckelhead on Jul 16, 2011 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
That ‘defense-first’ team was also 5th in goals-per-game and arguably the deepest scoring team in the league (5th in goals despite leading scorers being tied for 40th in NHL). It’s not as if they mimicked the Devils of old.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Jul 16, 2011 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
5th with less than 2.98 goals a game
Making them the first Stanley Cup winners since the lockout to average less than 3 goals a game during the regular season. Goals were already trending down. I’m guessing that gets even worse next season. Penalties have also trended way down, which helps a team like Boston that scored a whopping 30 goals less on the pp than the league leading Canucks. So when the game slows down and no penalties are called teams like Boston win 2-1. With some empty net goals in there to bring the goal average up.
by Canuckelhead on Jul 16, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Love that being one of the deepest teams and the best 5-on-5 teams in the league is spun as being a huge negative…
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Jul 16, 2011 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you can deal with it
While wearing your “Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Champions hat” and cradling your miniature stanley cup. It’s not meant to be a shot at the Stanley Cup champion Bruins as much as a shot at the league that has focused so much on a few players health they’ve already forgotten why people stopped watching before the lockout. It’s scary to think that goals were already down before this season when some people started talking about how the “new rules” were making the game so fast it was more dangerous to the players. Then you look at the champs and see a team built with a stud defender, an all-star goalie, scoring by committee and the need for the refs to put away the whistle and it paints a familiar picture.
by Canuckelhead on Jul 16, 2011 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Jank is a fucking beast
Hank and Dank need to get better in their own end, Ive been saying this shit since round 1.
"You don't have to be smart to laugh at farts but you have to be stupid not to" - Louis CK
Soon we must all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy.
Nucks Misconduct's official black guy and first line center (Twitter's 1st line center also).
by Chuckles Canuckles on Jul 17, 2011 11:04 AM PDT reply actions
Yup
Bolland, Ward, and Marchand fed on them like Jabba the Hutt on a vat of slimy space toads.
BRING ME SOLO

"You don't have to be smart to laugh at farts but you have to be stupid not to" - Louis CK
Soon we must all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy.
Nucks Misconduct's official black guy and first line center (Twitter's 1st line center also).
by Chuckles Canuckles on Jul 17, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Does this mean you are cheering on the USA? :)
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
If that means I get to see more Hope Solo
then yes.
"You don't have to be smart to laugh at farts but you have to be stupid not to" - Louis CK
Soon we must all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy.
Nucks Misconduct's official black guy and first line center (Twitter's 1st line center also).
by Chuckles Canuckles on Jul 17, 2011 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting read
Interesting read. I think it’d be worthwhile to put something to quantify uncertainty of these estimates when comparing regular season and playoffs.
It is plausible that the difference in production during the playoffs is simply due to a small sample size during the playoffs. It’d be useful to have confidence intervals, etc to ensure the observed differences are simply not due to this.
For the the larger differences and some of the noted ones in the top 2 lines, it’s clear that there was a difference between regular and post-seasons. For others it’s not so clear, especially given the limited ice time the 4th and to a lesser extent the 3rd got going down the stretch.
Feel free to contact me if you want to do this and could use some help.
nuckstical@wiggum.net

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