How Will This Conference Turn Out? - March 9

As most of you will remember, I put up a statistical algorithmical piece last week projected the final points and standings for the Western Conference this season.  Well, it got enough praise for me to continue it as a weekly thing for the rest of the season.  Let's see how my results from last week was affected, shall we?

Evening update: Beantown Canuck felt there was something too fishy about my algorithm saying that many of these teams will go 1 point per game for the rest of the season, which didn't make sense.  I checked my stuff, and it turns out that the rounding function I was using in my new Excel spreadsheets was taking away too many potential points.  I've now updated the post with all the decimal places included.

In case you're wondering how it all works, please refer to my in-depth algorithm explanation from the post I put up last week.  This week, however, I made my own life a little easier by putting everything into an Excel spreadsheet that I updated every night after the games were finalized.  Here are the next batch of projected standings:

1. Vancouver Canucks: currently at 95 points, 14 games left.
Remaining games against: Predators, Kings, Coyotes , Sharks, Flames x2, Wild x2, Avalanche, Red Wings, Thrashers, Blue Jackets, Oilers x2.
Divisional matchups: 3 games against Pacific, 3 games against Central, 7 against Northwest, 1 against Eastern Conference.
Predicted points: 4.24 from Pacific, 11.53 against Northwest, 3.71 points against Central, 1.29 against East ==> 115.76 points.

2. Detroit Red Wings: currently at 86 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against: Kings, Oilers, Blues x2, Capitals, Blue Jackets, Predators x2, Penguins, Canucks, Maple Leafs, Blackhawks x3, Wild, Hurricanes.
Divisional matchups: 1 against Pacific, 3 against Northwest, 8 against Central, 4 against East.
Predicted points: 1.11 against Pacific, 4.94 against Northwest, 8.5 against Central, 6 against East ==> 106.55 points.

3. San Jose Sharks: currently at 84 points, 15 games left.
Remaining games against: Stars x2, Canucks, Rangers, Blackhawks, Wild, Blues, Flames, Kings x2, Coyotes x3, Ducks x2.
Divisional matchups: 9 against Pacific, 3 against Northwest, 2 against Central, 1 against East.
Predicted points: 12 against Pacific, 3.71 against Northwest, 2.78 against Central, 1.06 against East ==> 103.54 points.

4. Chicago Blackhawks: currently at 80 points, 15 games left.
Remaining games against: Panthers, Lightning x2, Capitals, Sharks, Stars, Coyotes, Ducks, Red Wings x3, Bruins, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Blues.
Divisional matchups: 4 against Pacific, 5 against Central, 6 against East.
Predicted points: 4.75 against Pacific, 6.32 against Central, 8 against East ==> 99.07 points.

5. Dallas Stars: currently at 79 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against: Ducks x2, Sharks x2, Kings x2, Flames, Wild x2, Blackhawks, Flyers, Predators, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche x2.
Divisional matchups: 7 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 3 against Central, 1 against East.
Predicted points: 7.82 against Pacific, 4 against Northwest, 4.41 against Central, 1.35 against East ==> 96.59 points.

6. Phoenix Coyotes: currently at 79 points, 14 games left.
Remaining games against: Kings, Canucks, Flames x2, Ducks, Oilers, Blackhawks, Blues, Blue Jackets, Sharks x3, Stars, Avalanche.
Divisional matchups: 6 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 3 against Central.
Predicted points: 5.33 against Pacific, 7.33 against Northwest, 4.06 against Central ==> 95.73 points.

7. Los Angeles Kings: currently at 77 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against: Coyotes, Canucks, Stars x2, Red Wings, Blue Jackets, Predators, Blues, Ducks x3, Flames, Sharks x2, Avalanche, Oilers.
Divisional matchups: 8 against Pacific, 4 against Northwest, 4 against Central.
Predicted points: 8.5 against Pacific, 6.5 against Northwest, 3 against Central ==> 95 points.

8. Calgary Flames: currently at 79 points, 14 games left.
Remaining games against: Stars, Coyotes x2, Canucks x2, Avalanche x2, Ducks x2, Kings, Sharks, Oilers x2, Blues.
Divisional matchups: 7 against Pacific, 6 against Northwest, 1 against Central.
Predicted points: 7.54 against Pacific, 6 against Northwest, 1.37 against Central ==> 93.91 points.

9. Minnesota Wild: currently at 77 points, 15 games left.
Remaining games against: Predators, Stars x2, Canucks x2, Sharks, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Maple Leafs, Blues x2, Oilers x2, Lightning, Red Wings.
Divisional matchups: 3 against Pacific, 4 against Northwest, 5 against Central, 3 against East.
Predicted points: 3.53 against Pacific, 5.8 against Northwest, 4.67 against Central, 2.8 against East ==> 93.80 points.

10. Anaheim Ducks: currently at 75 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against: Stars x2, Rangers, Avalanche x2, Coyotes, Blues, Kings x3, Flames x2, Predators, Blackhawks, Sharks x2.
Divisional matchups: 8 against Pacific, 4 against Northwest, 3 against Central, 1 against East.
Predicted points: 9 against Pacific, 5.67 against Northwest, 2.29 against Central, 1.24 against East ==> 93.28 points.

11. Nashville Predators: currently at 76 points, 15 games left.
Remaining games against: Canucks, Wild, Avalanche x2, Kings, Bruins, Red Wings x2, Sabres, Oilers, Ducks, Stars, Thrashers, Blue Jackets, Blues.
Divisional matchups: 3 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 4 against Central, 3 against East.
Predicted points: 3.18 against Pacific, 5.67 against Northwest, 4.6 against Central, 3.6 against East ==> 93.04 points.

12. Columbus Blue Jackets: currently at 70 points, 17 games left.
Remaining games against: Blues x2, Kings, Hurricanes, Bruins, Red Wings, Wild, Devils, Avalanche, Coyotes, Canucks, Panthers, Capitals, Blackhawks, Stars, Predators, Sabres.
Divisional matchups: 3 against Pacific, 3 against Northwest, 5 against Central, 6 against East.
Predicted points: 3 against Pacific, 2.65 against Northwest, 5 against Central, 9.5 against East ==> 90.15 points.

13. St. Louis Blues: currently at 67 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against:  Blue Jackets x2, Canadiens, Red Wings x2, Ducks, Kings, Sharks, Coyotes, Oilers, Wild x2, Flames, Avalanche, Blackhawks, Predators.
Divisional matchups: 4 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 6 against Central, 1 against East.
Predicted points: 3.75 against Pacific, 3.33 against Northwest, 6.33 against Central, 1.35 against East ==> 81.77 points.

14. Colorado Avalanche: currently at 60 points, 16 games left.
Remaining games against: Oilers x2, Ducks x2, Predators x2, Canucks, Flames x2, Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs, Kings, Coyotes, Blues, Stars x2.
Divisional matchups: 6 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 4 against Central, 1 against East.
Predicted points: 3 against Pacific, 2.89 against Northwest, 5.25 against Central, 1.24 against East ==> 72.38 points.

15. Edmonton Oilers: currently at 54 points, 15 games left.
Remaining games against: Avalanche x2, Capitals, Red Wings, Penguins, Coyotes, Predators, Blues, Flames x2, Kings, Wild x2, Canucks x2.
Divisional matchups: 2 against Pacific, 8 against Northwest, 3 against Central, 2 against East.
Predicted points: 1.22 against Pacific, 5 against Northwest, 2.82 against Central, 2.13 against East ==>  65.17 points.

 

Analysis:

  • Big week for Anaheim,  as they went up 2 points and 3 positions.  Meanwhile, Columbus went down by 3 points and 3 positions.
  • Not much change up at the top or down at the bottom, other than the points.
  • Most teams had their points go down this week.  Vancouver, Dallas, Anaheim and Edmonton were the only ones to improve their projected totals.
  • Might as well throw Colorado and St. Louis into the grave with Edmonton.
  • Forecasted playoff matchups would have Vancouver vs Calgary, Detroit vs LA, San Jose vs Phoenix, and Chicago vs Dallas.
  • After the adjustments for Beantown: Most of the teams earned an extra 1-2 points by removing the rounding errors.  A couple of the teams competing for 8th even gained more than 2.  The only really noticeable changes was giving Dallas and Phoenix a tie-breaker, and allowing decimal places to sort out 9th through 11th.  Ultimately, my "magic number" went from 93 to about 93.85.  Have fun with that, Beantown.
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