FanPost

Is Kesler Improved? Or just Lucky?

 

This is my first amateurish attempt at any kind of analysis and I mainly wrote this to get feedback and insight in advanced statistics. I know I left some things out and do not properly know how to express them. I know Kesler's QualComp numbers are different this year that previous years because he has not been used against opposition best players this year.

Go easy and give me all the feed back you can. Thanks.

 

Usually when a player is having a career year like Kesler there are some things to look for:

1. Is his shooting percentage much higher than his career shooting perctage?

Kesler's career shooting percent is 12.38. He is at 17.75 for this year entage?

2. Is he benefiting from more ice time and power play time?

He is getting around the same ice time, a bit more power play time. His quality of power play time is better, because this year he is playing on the first unit, instead of the 2nd unit.
3. Is he getting a ton more shots that the usual season?

He has averaged 1.99 shots per game before this season. This year 3.25.

4. Are these results sustainable, due to a change in the players game, or is the player just benefiting from very good luck?

If Kesler is getting 3.25 shots per game and was shooting his career 12.38% he would have 21 goals so far this year, still on pace for a career high. Also, the coaching decision to keep Kesler on the PP has resulted in more shots and higher shooting percent, mainly because he benefits from rebound and tipped puck in front of the net. However, a 17.75 shooting percentage is higher than the career percentage of such players as Oveckin, Hossa, Nash, Crosby, Iginla, Vanek, among others.

For the "eyeball" test, Kesler's shot deflection and wrist shot have improved considerably over year past. Crosby has changed his game the last two years and has taken way more shots per year, and has a higher shooting percentage of between 3-5% over his career high as well. We may seem the same change in Kesler.


In summary, Kesler's results seem to be sustainable if he keeps getting prime PP time and keeps shooting the puck.



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