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Discussion: Coming to the mid-point of the season. Hotter or Colder?

The other day I found myself thinking that NM needs more discussion threads. Good ones often start organically in game threads but never as much as I'd like to see. I started looking at the Canuck's various numbers today (not as in depth as noon numbers!) and wrote a quick email to my brother and a couple friends with some light reading. I focused on the goal and assist totals that several players were on pace for and something to break up the day. One of the replies I got asserted that almost all the Canucks would cool off their current pace and finish with lower than projected totals. I thought this might make a good topic for discussion and welcome all opinions, I know mine can be somewhat rose-tinted. The predictions, arguments and rebuttal after the jump.

The Predictions, these are done with the simple formula of (stat total/games played)x(82-games missed)

Goals

40 Goals (Maybe)
Daniel Sedin 37.22 G Pace
30 Goals
Alexandre Burrows 31.11 G Pace
20 Goals
Jannik Hansen 23.74 G Pace
Ryan Kesler 23.33 G Pace
Chris Higgins 22.94 G Pace
Henrik Sedin 21.58 G Pace
Chasing 20 Goals
Cody Hodgson 17.26 G Pace
Mason Raymond 17.54 G Pace (25.23 G not adjusted pace but only 13 GP)
Andrew Ebbett (hahahahaha) 21.6 G Pace (32.8 G not adjusted pace only 10 GP)

Assists

70+
Henrik Sedin 75.53 A Pace
60+
No One
50+
Daniel Sedin 56.92 A Pace
40+
Alex Edler 47.48 A Pace
Ryan Kesler 42 A Pace
30+
Kevin Bieksa 38.84 A Pace
Dan Hamhuis 30.21 A Pace
25+
Chris Higgins 29.82 A Pace
Cody Hodgson 25.89 A Pace
20+
Alexandre Burrows 24.44 A Pace
Jannik Hansen 23.74 A Pace
David Booth 22.08 A Pace (Assuming he started playing again tomorrow)

Points

100+
No one
Chasing 100
Daniel Sedin 95.92 Pt Pace
Henrik Sedin 95.29 Pt Pace
70-95
No One
60+
Ryan Kesler 65.33 Pt Pace
Alex Edler 60.42 Pt Pace
50+
Alex Burrows 55.56 Pt Pace
Chris Higgins 52.76 Pt Pace
Chasing 50
Jannik Hansen 47.47 Pt Pace
Kevin Bieksa 45.32 Pt Pace
Long shot for 50
Cody Hodgson 43.16 Pt Pace

The Rebuttal


Realistically I see:

Daniel: 32-60-92
Henrik: 18-72-90

Kesler: 22-45-67
Burrows: 28-20-48

Edler: 8-35-43

Higgins: 18-18-36

Raymond: 16-20-36

Bieksa: 5-30-35

Hansen: 19-14-33

Booth: 12-20-32

Edler is solid and all, but 8 MAYBE 10 is all I see. 2-4 the rest of the way is realistic. His goals haven’t come off booming shots, more odd rush plays that he finishes off. It’s not sustainable as an option. Hell, he scored on a rebound shorthanded against Detroit. That doesn’t happen often. He is lucky to be at 6. He won’t be sniffing 60pts by the way. Ehrhoff JUST got 50pts last year and that top group (Sedin-Sedin-Kesler-Edler-Ehrhoff) was much more of a threat than our current one.



The Sedins are staying level. Burrows is hitting a reasonable goal total (higher than I’d usually peg him). Higgins maybe gets a few more assists, but he’ll likely drop to 3rd line once booth is back as he’s more complimentary with Hodgson and Hansen than Kesler and Raymond. Booth and Raymond pick it up and would be 50pt players this year were it not for injuries. Bieksa’s points stay about steady for his career (Best was low 40s with not many goals).

And lastly my reply

I'll bet you a footlong subway sandwich (kinda healthy) that Edler hits 12 goals or 55 points. I see Salo getting hurt and Edler being used as a shot more on the PP Helping his goal and assist total. Higgins I can see cooling off especially with his zombie bite problems and the return of Booth. The Sedins I see getting better not worse and them both flirting with 100. Remember the Canucks and Sedins play their best hockey AFTER Christmas. Kesler is playing like a man possessed and I can see him racking up the points for a month or so before he cools down and finished with close to 70 points despite his injury to start the season.

What does everyone else think?

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