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Discussion: Coming to the mid-point of the season. Hotter or Colder?

The other day I found myself thinking that NM needs more discussion threads. Good ones often start organically in game threads but never as much as I'd like to see. I started looking at the Canuck's various numbers today (not as in depth as noon numbers!) and wrote a quick email to my brother and a couple friends with some light reading. I focused on the goal and assist totals that several players were on pace for and something to break up the day. One of the replies I got asserted that almost all the Canucks would cool off their current pace and finish with lower than projected totals. I thought this might make a good topic for discussion and welcome all opinions, I know mine can be somewhat rose-tinted. The predictions, arguments and rebuttal after the jump.

Star-divide

The Predictions, these are done with the simple formula of (stat total/games played)x(82-games missed)

Goals

40 Goals (Maybe)
Daniel Sedin 37.22 G Pace
30 Goals
Alexandre Burrows 31.11 G Pace
20 Goals
Jannik Hansen 23.74 G Pace
Ryan Kesler 23.33 G Pace
Chris Higgins 22.94 G Pace
Henrik Sedin 21.58 G Pace
Chasing 20 Goals
Cody Hodgson 17.26 G Pace
Mason Raymond 17.54 G Pace (25.23 G not adjusted pace but only 13 GP)
Andrew Ebbett (hahahahaha) 21.6 G Pace (32.8 G not adjusted pace only 10 GP)

Assists

70+
Henrik Sedin 75.53 A Pace
60+
No One
50+
Daniel Sedin 56.92 A Pace
40+
Alex Edler 47.48 A Pace
Ryan Kesler 42 A Pace
30+
Kevin Bieksa 38.84 A Pace
Dan Hamhuis 30.21 A Pace
25+
Chris Higgins 29.82 A Pace
Cody Hodgson 25.89 A Pace
20+
Alexandre Burrows 24.44 A Pace
Jannik Hansen 23.74 A Pace
David Booth 22.08 A Pace (Assuming he started playing again tomorrow)

Points

100+
No one
Chasing 100
Daniel Sedin 95.92 Pt Pace
Henrik Sedin 95.29 Pt Pace
70-95
No One
60+
Ryan Kesler 65.33 Pt Pace
Alex Edler 60.42 Pt Pace
50+
Alex Burrows 55.56 Pt Pace
Chris Higgins 52.76 Pt Pace
Chasing 50
Jannik Hansen 47.47 Pt Pace
Kevin Bieksa 45.32 Pt Pace
Long shot for 50
Cody Hodgson 43.16 Pt Pace

The Rebuttal


Realistically I see:

Daniel: 32-60-92
Henrik: 18-72-90

Kesler: 22-45-67
Burrows: 28-20-48

Edler: 8-35-43

Higgins: 18-18-36

Raymond: 16-20-36

Bieksa: 5-30-35

Hansen: 19-14-33

Booth: 12-20-32

Edler is solid and all, but 8 MAYBE 10 is all I see. 2-4 the rest of the way is realistic. His goals haven’t come off booming shots, more odd rush plays that he finishes off. It’s not sustainable as an option. Hell, he scored on a rebound shorthanded against Detroit. That doesn’t happen often. He is lucky to be at 6. He won’t be sniffing 60pts by the way. Ehrhoff JUST got 50pts last year and that top group (Sedin-Sedin-Kesler-Edler-Ehrhoff) was much more of a threat than our current one.



The Sedins are staying level. Burrows is hitting a reasonable goal total (higher than I’d usually peg him). Higgins maybe gets a few more assists, but he’ll likely drop to 3rd line once booth is back as he’s more complimentary with Hodgson and Hansen than Kesler and Raymond. Booth and Raymond pick it up and would be 50pt players this year were it not for injuries. Bieksa’s points stay about steady for his career (Best was low 40s with not many goals).

And lastly my reply

I'll bet you a footlong subway sandwich (kinda healthy) that Edler hits 12 goals or 55 points. I see Salo getting hurt and Edler being used as a shot more on the PP Helping his goal and assist total. Higgins I can see cooling off especially with his zombie bite problems and the return of Booth. The Sedins I see getting better not worse and them both flirting with 100. Remember the Canucks and Sedins play their best hockey AFTER Christmas. Kesler is playing like a man possessed and I can see him racking up the points for a month or so before he cools down and finished with close to 70 points despite his injury to start the season.

What does everyone else think?

Poll
Will most Canucks finish ahead or behind their current point projection?
They will all beat their current pace
2 votes
Most will better their projection some will falter
23 votes
50/50 split
10 votes
We are playing too well right now people will slow down
2 votes
Everyone will fall short of their pace
0 votes
Andrew Ebbett is scoring 20 goals WATCH OUT!
8 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 10 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I think your estimates are a bit too conservative

At this point in the season, we’ve scored 127, so we’re definitely on pace for just about the same goal totals (258)

I could argue that we have a deeper team this year too – our 2nd and 3rd line forwards are all on pace for 15-20 goals each. Our defensemen are benefiting from not having Ehrhoff soak up all the prime PP minutes too.

by seedvt on Dec 30, 2011 6:15 PM PST reply actions  

A well thought out post, mechanixfetch!

I am pretty much in agreement with your projections. But I do think Daniel will approach the 40 goal mark again

Contributor at Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Jan 1, 2012 1:29 PM PST reply actions  

More points, less points.

It doesn’t matter. Just win, baby.

Warm winds blowing, heating blue sky, and a road that goes forever...

by Smoboy41 on Jan 1, 2012 1:35 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Didn't see this posted anywhere
THIRD STAR — HENRIK SEDIN, C, VANCOUVER CANUCKS

HENRIK SEDIN
CENTER – VAN
GOALS: 10 | ASST: 36 | PTS: 46
SOG: 59 | +/-: 15
Sedin led all NHL scorers in December with 22 points (two goals, 20 assists) in 15 games and vaulted to first place in the NHL scoring race, spurring the Canucks (24-13-2) to top spot in the Northwest Division. Sedin tallied points in 13 of 15 games, highlighted by six multiple-point performances and one game-winning goal. Henrik assisted on each of brother Daniel’s three goals in a 6-0 victory over the Colorado Avalanche Dec. 6 and tallied one-goal, two-assist performances in wins over the Minnesota Wild (4-0, Dec. 19) and Anaheim Ducks (5-2, Dec. 29). Henrik, the 2009-10 NHL scoring champion, enters 2012 with the League points lead (10-36—46) in a bid for his second Art Ross Trophy in three seasons.

The continents don't drift. They back away slowly from Ryan Kesler.

by raincity on Jan 1, 2012 1:56 PM PST reply actions  

NHL 3rd star of the month.

The continents don't drift. They back away slowly from Ryan Kesler.

by raincity on Jan 1, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ll front page that. thanks!

Contributor at Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Jan 1, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

No prob. Some guys named Malkin and Stamkos go the 1st and 2nd stars. Boooooooo ; )

Here’s the link

The continents don't drift. They back away slowly from Ryan Kesler.

by raincity on Jan 1, 2012 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Also think that your estimates are bit conservative

Barring any injuries, we have three legitimate scoring lines (when Booth is back), and Canucks are known for better second half team for years.

Sedins should be able to reach 100 points, and I don’t see Kes sitting at 20+ goals and 60+ points (expecting more).

Agree with Edler and defensemen points though.

by CaPoDad on Jan 1, 2012 5:58 PM PST reply actions  

Edler

I’d be willing to bet that Edler continues to play at a 60 point pace for the season, and barring injury (crap, I jinxed it!), he’ll have at least 60 pts at the end of the season.

by splnwezel on Jan 2, 2012 12:03 PM PST reply actions  

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Canucks Stats

Stat

Forwards

Defense

Points

H. Sedin (72)

Edler (45)

Goals

D. Sedin (30)

Edler (11)

Assists

H. Sedin (59)

Edler (34)

Shots

D. Sedin (229)

Edler (212)

Hits

Lapierre (217)

Bieksa (148)

Blocked Shots

Kesler (56)

Edler (120)

ES TOI/G

D. Sedin (14.46)

Bieksa (18.22)

PP TOI/G

D. Sedin (3.21)

Edler (3.25)

PK TOI/G

Malhotra (2.42)

Hamhuis (2.88)

Corsi Rel QoC

Pahlsson (1.008)

Bieksa (0.875)

Zone Starts (OPCT)

D. Sedin (80%)
Malhotra (12%)

Edler (58%)
Alberts (40%)

Updated: March 24


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