Tuesday's Number: Sedin goal totals

Hey, so if you haven't noticed, Henrik Sedin is leading the Vancouver Canucks in goals, and Daniel Sedin is leading the Vancouver Canucks in assists. Isn't that weird? All life as we know it has gone topsy-turvy! I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT TO THINK ABOUT THIS!

I apologize to confuse the narrative, since Henrik is supposed to be "the passer" of the twins and Daniel is supposed to be "the shooter". Obviously, this is changing this season, right? Unfortunately, none of the print guys have theorized as to why so I can't take their arguments down one-by-one, but Henrik, who is well-versed in advanced stats, hit it right on the mark, calling Daniel "one of the best passers in the game".

Daniel is one of the underrated players in the NHL. I don't think he ought to have been the MVP last season because his line, straight up, doesn't play any sort of defense. Daniel is less of an assist guy because he's played most of his career with a guy who doesn't shoot.

Coming into Tuesday's game, Daniel has taken 2.6 shots per game in his NHL career, while Henrik has taken just 1.5, hence Henrik's 525 career assists to Daniel's measly 421. Remember, assist totals aren't really an indicator of how good a playmaker you are. Oftentimes, the number of assists you get is more proportional to how well your linemates shoot. Since I starting noting who has been setting up and taking scoring chances, it's clear that Daniel Sedin sets up just as many as Henrik has, and this season, for once, his linesmates are starting to finish.

Shots Goals Sh% Career Sh%
Daniel Sedin 72 6 8.3% 12.3%
Henrik Sedin 36 8 22.2% 13.2%

Daniel has taken twice the shots as Henrik but is somehow maintaining his lowest shooting percentage since 2002. Meanwhile, Henrik is maintaining his highest shooting percentage in his career (oddly enough, his second highest was in 2002. Henrik had 16 goals that year and Daniel had 9, while Daniel had 23 assists to Henrik's 20).

With either sustain? Unlikely. At the end of the day, we can expect the players to end up with similar shots per game numbers and for their shooting percentages to sync up with their career norms.

So, from here on out, I will "project" the number of goals each will score this season, taking into account how many goals they've banked so far:

Shots/Game Expected Shots Expected Goals Total Goals
Daniel Sedin 3.1 185 23 29
Henrik Sedin 1.6 92 12 20

That "expected" total is the number of shots and goals that I'm predicting over the next 59 games. That expected goal number is then added to the respective 8 and 6 that the Sedins have currently earned. Health aside, Daniel ought to finish with nine more goals than Henrik. It's a 12-goal drop from his number last season, but I think we all could have expected for that to happen.

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