The Noon Number: 55
Sorry I didn't post a noon number Friday, and that is unfortunately a trend that will continue. I was named on Friday as one of four bloggers to replace the irreplaceable Kurtenblog so, the daily numerical fix for your Vancouver Canucks will be held to probably just twice a week (I'm not sure as of yet). Happily, today is one of those lucky days where you will get to be graced by my presence, popping in and out of the comments section to answer questions as I hunker down on yet another mystery to solve.
If any of the fine Nuckleheads in our blessed community read or voted for me in the Province competition, allow me to take the time to properly thank you for the support through the replace the KB competition. It was the strangest job interview I ever went through and I couldn't have done it without the support I got from the fine folks of Canucks Nation, some of whom may be Nucks Misconduct regulars.
Anyhoo, want to talk hockey statistics? Want to completely avoid Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider discussion because this goalie controversy is about to go completely off the tracks? Unfortunately, this is sort of the main story in Canuckdom this week, given that Schneider stopped 117 of 120 shots in a four-game winning streak.
Now, you don't need a numerical expert to tell you that making 117 out of 120 saves is a lot. That is a .975 save percentage, which is two things:
- Really good
- Unsustainably good
Now, I have no real problem with Schneider or Luongo. They are both fantastic goaltenders, though Luongo is the better one. With a 400-game cutoff, Luongo has the third highest save percentage of all time and I tend to trust things that have more sample size as opposed to less. He's had a rough start, but sure, so did Travis Lulay, and look what happened to him.
What I'd rather talk about is the merits of having two strong NHL goaltenders. Platooning, if you will, to sap every possible save out of both Luongo and Schneider. It's a good problem to have two good goalies: the last two Stanley Cup winners had "goaltending controversies" well into the season and neither Tim Thomas nor Antti Niemi started more than 55 games in either of those years.
Is Luongo getting old and is it slowing him down? I don't know. All I know is that since coming to the Canucks, Luongo has started on average 65.8 games a season because he never had a capable backup. Now he does. His last season was the best of his career (.928 save percentage) and he started fewer games than he had in any non-injury-shortened season since 2002.
Capping Roberto Luongo's start number at 55 may be beneficial for himself and the team. Every drop into the butterfly for a goalie on the wrong side of 30 takes seconds off of his knees, and, if you've seen Dwayne Roloson try and tend Tampa Bay's net this season, you may come to the conclusion that goalies need those things.
Now, logically, when you start 55 games, you, in turn, don't start 27 of them. (#math!) These are games that I would like the Vancouver Canuck backup goaltender Cory Schneider to start. This would mean Luongo would start 42 of the remaining 59 games to meet this quota. That, in turn, means that Schneider gets 17 more starts. The Canucks play six back-to-back games.
Do goalies who play fewer games play better? I'm not sure, but I think that there's evidence to suggest that it may help Luongo. There are good goalies who play not so many games and bad goalies who play lots of games. So the question I posit to the Nucks Misconduct commentariat... how many games do you have Luongo start this season, him, being one of two excellent goaltenders that the Canucks are happy to employ?
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I wonder if Schneider is getting all these starts in a row not only because he has the 'hot hand'
Could if be to increase his trade value? Or to ‘use him up’ before he is traded at the deadline? Pad his stats and give Roberto a rest before Cory is dealt.
Idk, food for thought.
Have you accepted Aaron Rome as your Lord and Savior?
by Shand on Nov 28, 2011 12:31 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I voted 36-45 for Luongo
Here’s why:
1) I want the least amount of wear and tear on Luongo for the playoffs. That is the time he should be stating every game and he better be healthy.
2) Giving Schneider that many more games and having him succeed will raise his asking price next year. Sign and trade. We can’t trade him this year (cap space) unless we only want draft picks for him. That sounds silly to me.
3) Two great goalies is always better than one.
Enjoying .500 hockey this year.
Congrats on the new gig!
You bringing advanced statistics along with insightful arguments are one of the main reasons I frequent NM. Good luck!
.313/.400/.565
"They are both fantastic goaltenders, though Luongo is the better one"
Hey, don’t go starting a controversy buddy!
Cory F'n Schneider - Canucks #1 goalie, now with more cowbell.
Kokosnötter, gå!
What would a decent trade for Schneider be at this point? How about to Tampa Bay for Brett Connolly (Campbell River BC native)? To Columbus for Ryan Johansen (Vancouver native)? Florida for Erik Gudranson? To Phoenix for Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Swedish, and we know how Vancouver is crazy for Swedes)? They’re all high picks with a lot of potential but getting a legitimate starting goaltender might be more important to them RIGHT NOW.
I can’t really see Gillis trade to any other team since they either all have established goaltenders, play in our division, or don’t have any legitimate prospects (ie New Jersey) to send our way in exchange as it would be unlikely we would take on any significant cap space in return.
Those are all big-time prospects, and i would think GMMG would much prefer a roster player who’s ready now, rather than a prospect….
Frequent visitor to Nucks Misconduct.
by Vancouverguy on Nov 29, 2011 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Mayray, Ballard and Schnieder...
for Rick Nash – I will ignore any and all responses that suggest this proposal is unreasonable in any way.
I would go for this trade in a heartbeat.
Giving up a 2nd/3rd line forward coming off an injury, a third pairing D-man and a top-notch goaltending prospect for a legit NHL sniper who singlehandedly produces almost a point-per-game? Where do I sign up?
Sedin-Sedin-Nash
Booth-Kesler-Burrows
OMFreakingG #nojoke
Shea Weber?
<3 Boobies!
notafullcolon CS: Well obviously I meant we were snorting blow off hookers at the time of the goal
by Canuckles on Nov 28, 2011 8:54 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Schnieder is the key
and badly needing a hot goalie is the lock. I also don’t think Weber, as much as I like to see him in a proper jersey, would bring as much to the team as Nash. The Sedins with a true power forward? Statgasm.
Yeah, but the issue becomes again....
How many of those guys are around? Not too many, and the Bruins have two of them.
Clowe, Ryan, Perry, Iginla (maybe?), Horton, Lucic, Nash, Doan (maybe?). I agree it’s the perfect piece for this team. Just saying that true power forwards are tough to find, will cost a king’s ransom, and most teams wouldn’t even entertain the idea of moving one of those guys
by RogerFenway on Nov 29, 2011 11:09 AM PST up reply actions

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