The Noon Number: 27.6

27.6

The Corsi rate, per 60 minutes, of struggling Canuck Ryan Kesler, who happens to lead the team in this otherwise-obscure statistical category. Corsi, while seemingly complex, is easy enough to understand. What the 27.6 number means that for every 60 minutes that Kesler is on the ice at even-strength, the Canucks will have 27.6 more shots, missed shots and blocked shots directed at the other teams' net than at their own.

Will the scoring pick up? Definitely. Kesler is playing some terrific hockey even if his goals and points total doesn't reflect it. While critics of the Corsi rating suggest that the quality of the shots matters more than the volume of shots taken at either end, according to the scoring chance data, at last count, Kesler was doing very well and we are likely to update the total numbers at the end of the month. 

Scoring chances correlate quite well with our Corsi data, and the purpose of the scoring chance project, having as many bloggers from as many teams count chances, is to prove that this happens for all teams and not just the 2010 Edmonton Oilers. The more shots created or allowed, the more that the quality of the shots will even out, and the more that the goals themselves will as well. The reason we don't use goals is because there are fewer of those in a game than scoring chances and shots, so they subject themselves a lot more to randomness.

Kesler's major problem is that when he's on the ice, the Canucks have only put 3.4% of pucks in the net, and that number is just 4.6% at even strength. A regular on-ice shooting percentage will deviate between about 7-10% depending on how open the team plays.

So, the 27.6 rate is Kesler's Corsi rate per 60 minutes. Through 15 games, that equals to a raw number of +85, meaning that 85 more shots have been directed at the opponents net when Kesler's on the ice. Expressed as a percentage, that is 61.6%.

(Click on the link here if you're still confused at how Corsi works. You might have to wait a bit for the page to load. If you scroll down to Kesler, you'll see he has 4 goals for and 7 against [ -3 in goals, -3 total Corsi so far ] 113 saved shots for and 79 against [ +34 in saved shots and +31 total so far ] 54 missed shots for and 26 against [ +28 / +59 ] and 54 blocked shots for with 28 against [ +26 / +85 ] )

Kesler is getting his chances, but with just 1 goal and 1 assist at even strength so far, his critics are going to start piling on him the longer he gets torched by bad luck. One thing that he can't be criticized for is how damn good he's made the powerplay and the Canucks are generating success there. It's just a evens that he can't get it going, but will.

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