The Noon Number: 2.8


Yesterday I discussed the implications of Jannik Hansen moving north to play with the Sedin twins, and how the move has obviously benefit him without so much impacting the twins' play in the slightest, so it gives Alain Vigneault the option to use the now-better-defensively line in tougher situations.

Well, in theory. Some guy (It was probably Semi) noticed in the comments that I didn't discuss the implications of the move on Hansen's old linemates, and who gets impacted by the move, notably Manny Malhotra, Cody Hodgson, Alex Burrows and Ryan Kesler.

So, let's organize these into a chart. I'll look at the Corsi percentage of each player before, and after, the St. Louis game where Vigneault first went with the combinations. Click after the jump:

Before Switch After Switch
Burrows 59.8% 51.4%
Hodgson 59.1% 53.5%
Kesler 67.0% 53.7%
Malhotra 45.3% 31.9%
TEAM 51.2% 54.0%

Corsi percentage, is, of course, calculated by dividing the shot attempts at the other teams net by the total number of shot attempts while a player was on the ice. The data is best used to describe at which end the play was in when a player was on the ice. The data was taken from here and here.

The thing you first notice is that the player most affected by this is Manny Malhotra. However, given that the Canucks have a) had the lead more and b) have played more games on the road, you'd figure that there would be a brief drop for most players before and after due to score effects (the teams that play from behind generate more shots and scoring chances) and travel effects (it's harder to play hockey on the road).

Burrows' Corsi percentage has dropped, but so have his sheltered minutes with the Sedins, which is probably a big reason why Hansen's number increased so much. The switch has turned into a net positive for Hansen, a net even for the Sedins, and a negative for the remaining players involved.

However, the team appears to be playing slightly better since the switch. 2.8% better, in fact, hence the noon number. Who knows whether that's just a small sample, an easy schedule, or the fact that the team dominated the third period in Anaheim so much, but I don't think that Vigneault has a real definite reason to switch the lines now, given that the team are 3-2 since the change and have outscored the opposition 18-12.

Where's the extra push coming from? David Booth is notably better than both Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson, Maxim Lapierre and Dale Weise are playing better and getting more minutes, both of which are pretty unrelated to the switch.

So, once this period of good variance ends for the Sedin-Hansen line, I'd expect to see Alex Burrows back with Henrik and Daniel.

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