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Around SBN: Africa Cup Of Nations Semifinal: Black Stars Ripe For Upset?

Defining "grit", Part I

Before the Raffi Torres signing, there were some red flags out concerned if Mike Gillis has done enough to address the "grit" of the third and fourth lines in particular. So far the biggest changes have come as much by addition (Manny Malhotra and Raffi Torres along with bubble guys like Jeff Tambellini, Joel Perrault and Victor Oreskovich) as by subtraction (Kyle Wellwood, Ryan Johnson and Michael Grabner). Bigger, hard-nosed guys in, smaller guys out.

That doesn't answer the grit question because there's no singular definition of what the hell grit is. Hockey players have plenty of normal grit, laughably more than many athletes in other sports. One man's gritty player (Matt Cooke, Dan Carcillo, Ulf Samuelsson) is another person's dirty cheapshot who should be tossed out of the league (so sayeth perhaps all of Boston or, in Carcillo's case, his immediate family). They may not be guys who sell tickets (Darren Helm, Andrew Ladd, Mike Grier) but sometimes bloom into the face of a franchise (Cam Neely, Dale Hawerchuk, Ken Daneyko, Mark Messier). Grit isn't always physical; you can cite a player's heart, drive or "never say die" attitude that earns them accolades from generations of fans decades after their career ends (check the list of Masterton winners for more).

I'd argue Vancouver needs grit blended with defensive responsibility. Without the latter, you're left with a player who will be prone to actions that put the Canucks shorthanded (and with a poor PK, you know how that ends). A line that frees up the Sedins and Kesler lines, can also be counted on for some production and brings the sandpaper to both ends of the rink. Kyle Wellwood (defensive responsibility) and Steve Bernier (grit) offered a good mix on paper that never clicked in reality. In contrast Chicago's third line from the playoffs - Ladd/Versteeg/Bolland - could wear down the opposition's best while also scoring and never put Hawks on the PK. Can't ask for much more.

In this post we'll focus on a few of the gritty individuals you all suggested. From there we'll have a baseline to start with before looking at Vancouver to see if they've improved when compared with league averages.

Star-divide

Many of your comments were similar: a gritty forward is perhaps short on scoring talent but willingly to stick up for teammates, play through pain, absorb the hits, own the corners, be a pest, perhaps occasionally cross a line. From there I pulled together stats that serve as a jumping off point for quantifying grit & defensive responsibility: 

  1. The basics (Games played, TOI/60 and points)
  2. The paycheck (Hits, Blocked Shots, Takeaways, Penalty +/-)
  3. The opponent (Qualcomp)

There are obviously other variables that can be considered and I'd love to hear your opinion. Keep in mind things like hit counts are subject to home ice bias (Hi Brenden Morrow!) so take it with a grain of salt. Penalty +/- refers to the amount of penalties a player takes in comparison with penalties they draw on the opponent; we looked at Vancouver's best and worst last week. Qualcomp, or quality of competition, refers to the opposing players' average (GFON-GAON)-(GFOFF-GAOFF) and is crucial to understanding the type of opposition a player is on the ice with.

Here are a sampling of the names you provided us and their 2009-2010 ES stats:

Games Played
TOI/60
Points
Hits Blocked Shots Takeaways Penalty +/-
Qualcomp
Laperriere
82 9.54 20 171 74 21 n/a 0.018
Draper
81 10.80 22 100 19 12 -3 -0.085
Grier 73 12.75 22 97 44 22 +8 -0.017
Richards 82 14.09 62 145 64 42 +21 0.109
Kesler 82 13.73 75 95 73 83 +20 0.030
R. Niedermayer 71 13.49 22 83 24 22 -8 0.015
Iginla 82 16.35 69 86 36 45 +14 0.075
Helm 75 11.55 24 188 39 48 +16 -0.086
Morrow 76 13.76 46 230 48 33 -3 0.039
Carcillo 76 10.95 22 194 17
24 +25 0.060

Click the header to sort each column

 

My initial take was to remove top six guys like Kesler, Iginla, Morrow and Richards but left them in for the sake of comparison. Dropping top six players out results in the following type of potential third liner:

  • Season Average: 76GP, 11.51 TOI/60, 22 points, 139 hits, 36 blocked shots, 25 takeaways, 6 penalty +/-, -0.015 qualcomp
  • Game Average: A point every 3.5 games, 1.7 hits a game, .43 blocked shots a game, .30 takeaways a game

These averages suggests a bottom six gritty forward would be getting a point every week, two hits a game, a blocked shot every two games and a takeaway every three games. If they take a penalty, chances are they draw at least a non-coincidental call if not two. The Qualcomp tally is too low for my liking, but it's in line with what Vancouver had outside of their second tough minute guys.

As for Vancouver, these averages work well in some respects for players like Wellwood and Bernier: the point totals are right, they actually played more minutes and both had a positive penalty +/-. However both had fewer hits, blocked shots and Bernier had fewer takeaways. Both had a qualcomp - Wellwood at  -0.016 and Bernier at  -0.031 - that was worse too.

It suggests this season's third liners, to at least be grittier, need to be more aggressive in the mechanics of their shift without giving anything back the other way.

Again, it's just a baseline look at grit, not an iconclad definition. Next we'll compare and contrast the old and new third liners to see what type of changes Vancouver can project heading into October.

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This is a good look at grit. Honestly I’m kinda shocked that Wellwood and Bernier stack up so well with this definition.

"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky

by Karina on Sep 9, 2010 10:40 AM PDT reply actions  

So was I. Though I would love to see the averages of a larger group, maybe the best gritty bottom six guy on every playoff team for instance.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Brendan Morrow, you animal you.

Great stuff Mike! I’ll wrap my head around this some more later today

Nucks Misconduct
"Here goes nothin'" - Han Solo

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 9, 2010 11:04 AM PDT reply actions  

Don’t have time to read through this yet, but that picture at the top is brilliant.

by Passive Voice on Sep 9, 2010 11:04 AM PDT reply actions  

I’d buy that one

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Sep 10, 2010 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would not go over very well with the folks at 2K sports. I smell lawsuit! Delicious delicious lawsuit.

by Beantown Canuck on Sep 10, 2010 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

and my name is on it too yet. I’m so fukt

Nucks Misconduct
"Here goes nothin'" - Han Solo

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 10, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think parodies are fair use, but I wouldn’t go as far as to disagree with beantown ;)

by SteveNux on Sep 10, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah he’s right. You’re in the clear.

by Beantown Canuck on Sep 10, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Believe me, I’m not worried. I forgot to insert smiley face

Nucks Misconduct
"Here goes nothin'" - Han Solo

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 10, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

This seems as reasonable a setup as any other for what is very much a subjective idea.

A classic player for providing grit at the risk of an opponent getting past (pulling himself out of position to make the hit) that most Canucks fans will know I think is Ed Jovanovski. I love the guy’s play, and he was one of my favourites when he was here, but that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his faults.

I note you’re excluding defenders, though. Never mind!

by Thursday on Sep 9, 2010 11:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Thanks. Yeah defensemen can be in another series of posts. Same set of loose rules about what defines them I reckon but their criteria is likely different.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good post!

I, too, am surprised that Welly and Bernier live up to some of the expectations of “grit”. But I would rate them as a bit finer grade of sandpaper. They were like a 220 and we need a 40.

Hopefully the replacements can equal (or exceed) the points production, but improve some of the other categories. Which I think is doable.

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Sep 9, 2010 12:12 PM PDT reply actions  

They were good in relation to that sample but I suspect (scratch that I know because I already looked at some other guys) is that it’s pretty far off from an ideal. If you accept my premise then you want a Ladd or Bolland, not a Wellwood or Bernier.

Though I haven’t dived into the comparison yet, Malhota and Torres should rank better in relation to the upper echelons of the sample.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

…or, in Carcillo’s case, his immediate family.

What? Do you mean his Flyers “family” or an actual relative? That’d be pretty great if an actual family member said that, LOL.

by supernature on Sep 9, 2010 12:54 PM PDT reply actions  

That’d be pretty great if an actual family member said that, LOL.

I have no first hand knowledge of it, but I assume someone in his family feels that way.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

That kina-creepy, never-growing-up uncle...

…That NO ONE invites to an open bar event.

“WHOOOO! FREEEEEEE-BIIIIIIIIRD! Play f#@kin’ FREEBIRD you suck-ass band! WHOOOOO!”

by Thursday on Sep 9, 2010 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

injury stats

this might be an impossibly difficult stat to track down, but there are two ways your could measure how well a player plays through injury

1. time spent on DL in offseason (surgery, rehab, etc)

2. %games missed to injury in the regular season vs games missed in the playoffs

both of these would suggest a player was playing through injury and sucking it up to either finish the season, or come back and play in the playoffs

by crafish on Sep 9, 2010 12:55 PM PDT reply actions  

You’d also need to know when the injury started. For Burrows, we’d need to know when that shoulder started hurting and then start gauging it when he comes back. Even then we’d have no idea if he’s playing fine or playing hurt until he actually misses a game. Seems like a slippery slope.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

The interview Botch posted said Febuary.

Toughed it out…and that is appreciated.

Tough to quantify these guys with numbers huh? Good article. I think, more than any other type player, that is is the most subjective category to try and sort out with numbers, isn’t it?

Hunter S. Thompson

America... just a nation of two hundred million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns and no qualms about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable.

by vancitydan on Sep 9, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good reading! I look forward to the next installment!

by Sandwich76 on Sep 9, 2010 1:19 PM PDT reply actions  

I was right on

Lappy and R. Niedermayer.

Also,

Fuck Carcillo.

That is all.

"Brick killed a guy!" - Ron Burgundy

C Henrik Sedin #33: Vancouver Canucks Alternate Captain, 2010 Art Ross Trophy Winner and 2010 Hart Memorial Trophy Winner.

by Chuckles Canuckles on Sep 9, 2010 1:27 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed

He’s more douche than grit

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Sep 9, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Much

more.

"Brick killed a guy!" - Ron Burgundy

C Henrik Sedin #33: Vancouver Canucks Alternate Captain, 2010 Art Ross Trophy Winner and 2010 Hart Memorial Trophy Winner.

by Chuckles Canuckles on Sep 9, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think grit is the guy who will sacrifice himself at any cost for the team. Not just a crash and banger…. but a guy who will get in front of the net and get the crap knocked out of him to help his team gain an opportunity.

Even a guy like Stevie Y, not a notoriously physical player, who hobbles around on a gibbled drumstick to give his chance a team to win, portrays it.

Someone who has the ability to put the puck in the net but accepts a demotion to check hard and play a role others would consider beneath them exemplifies it.

Pretty wide range, but I think grit pretty much goes hand in hand with heart.

Shove it in your addendum.

by kesrows on Sep 9, 2010 2:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Right, all these guys have grit. That’s why I’m trying to narrow it down to what defines a good gritty third liner, someone eating up 10-12 minutes a game who may be chucked out against the best of the opposition. The Hawks checking line is the model for my purposes; it’s rare to have the depth to have a Versteeg on your third line, but what they did in the playoffs was what I think the Canucks, and most other teams, would want to have.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay, gotcha

Sorry for going off on a tangent. Guess the complexity of the whole thing is what qualifies this as a two parter.

Nice work Mike.

Shove it in your addendum.

by kesrows on Sep 9, 2010 4:09 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll be honest....

….I’m not sure if hockey lends itself as well to statistical meanderings as baseball does.

 How does one qauntify if a fellow goes down after taking a stick in the chops and gets out and does it again without taking a retalitory penality which puts the other team up a man?

 To me that’s grit.

 Ryan Johnson= Grit. Welwood in last years playoffs? Gritty. Salo (mock his injuries if you will)playing a game with one of the boys down for the count? Come on lads…if there was a way to earn the respect of every man on the planet for having balls (hah!) Sami did just that.

 It’s just too abstract of a thing to put numbers to.

 How can you compare the effects of blocking shot A vs shot B? Some of them will make you wince and some of them will hurt you enough that taking that next shift makes you a liability.

I refuse to have a sigline included with each of my posts. You can't make me!

by sixtysix on Sep 9, 2010 4:40 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m not sure if hockey lends itself as well to statistical meanderings as baseball does.

It doesn’t. Baseball is so individualistic. But….I still like these deep stats for hockey because they still paint a picture, even though it’s a complicated one.

Stop praising Salo! Stop it!
heheh

Nucks Misconduct
"Here goes nothin'" - Han Solo

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 9, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

While baseball is more individualistic

they also go to great lengths to find new stats that judge the effect the individual had on the game. Hockey stats will get better and better at that. They will never be as effective as baseball stats but they will get better.

"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor

by Section 312 on Sep 9, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Its funny. I agree with both you guys. It is hard to quantify.

Grit question. I know most of us would agree that Bobby Clarke was a gritty player. Just look at him when he smiled back then!

But was that grit, or just dirty when he axed Kharlemov? The 72 mini series intimates that it was Ferguson that told him to do it, and he was just following coach’s orders….

It was whatever it takes to win.

And yes, even though he wasn’t 100%, Salo earned even more respect than I already had.

But the numbers do paint a picture. I agree there Sean. Its just not a complete one.

Hunter S. Thompson

America... just a nation of two hundred million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns and no qualms about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable.

by vancitydan on Sep 9, 2010 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

I won’t dive too much into the baseball/hockey view of stats, but I agree with Section that the gap is narrowing and with Zanny that they provide a view of the action we may not see as spectators. Each year the stats are being more refined, the Oilers guys who started recording scoring chances over this past season have opened another door. There’s certainly no harm in examining them; you don’t have to believe a word if you don’t want to.

This whole post started from literally seeing the word grit bantered about everywhere. It seemed to me if a bunch of folks were saying it, why not try and quantify and define it? As stated in the post, every player has hockey grit so that’s not going to work. Narrowing it down to the third line (in the context of the Canucks at the moment) was the next step. Attaching stats to it was just an experiment, but one that I think holds value and I hope to do more of these in the future.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 9, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Five bucks says

Raffi Torres gets a penalty on his first regular season shift as a Vancouver Canuck.

by Temujin on Sep 9, 2010 7:51 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll take

that bet!

"Brick killed a guy!" - Ron Burgundy

C Henrik Sedin #33: Vancouver Canucks Alternate Captain, 2010 Art Ross Trophy Winner and 2010 Hart Memorial Trophy Winner.

by Chuckles Canuckles on Sep 9, 2010 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll double it up!

 And add that the first line AV plays this year on the first shift of the first game will be Manny, Raffi and (?) and the tone will be set.

 After the bodies are removed from the ice, the next shift will involve a three way passing play between the two twins which will be deflected off of Samualson’s big toe for a perfect goal. Sami Salo will burn himself with his tea while he cheers in the pressbox.

 You read it here first!

I refuse to have a sigline included with each of my posts. You can't make me!

by sixtysix on Sep 9, 2010 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

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