FanPost

Shortcut to the Finals: go through Vancouver...


In another thread, iceman22 asked about the Canucks luck with losing in the playoffs to teams that go on to win the Cup or at least make the finals.  Let's crunch some numbers.


In the last decade (which had only 9 seasons, stupid lockout), the Canucks have made the playoffs 7 times.  They've been knocked out 4 times in the 2nd round, and 3 times in the 1st round. 
A team that wins in the 1st round, all things being equal, has a 25% chance of making the Stanley Cup Finals and a 12.5% chance of winning the Cup.  A team that wins in the 2nd round has a 50% chance of making the SCF and 25% chance of winning. 
So add those numbers together (3x0.25 chance of making finals + 4 x 0.5 chance of making finals)... one would expect that in the last decade the Canucks to have lost to 2.75 Stanley Cup Finalists, and 1.375 Stanley Cup Winners.


The actual numbers:
Canucks have lost 4 times to eventual Cup Winners:
'10 Hawks '07 Ducks '02 Red Wings '01 Avalanche
And 1 additional time to a Finalist:
'04 Flames

So basically, they've lost to finalists twice as often as should have been expected on average, and they've lost to the Stanley Cup Champion three times more than expected! Wow!

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