FanPost

Shortcut to the Finals: go through Vancouver...


In another thread, iceman22 asked about the Canucks luck with losing in the playoffs to teams that go on to win the Cup or at least make the finals.  Let's crunch some numbers.


In the last decade (which had only 9 seasons, stupid lockout), the Canucks have made the playoffs 7 times.  They've been knocked out 4 times in the 2nd round, and 3 times in the 1st round. 
A team that wins in the 1st round, all things being equal, has a 25% chance of making the Stanley Cup Finals and a 12.5% chance of winning the Cup.  A team that wins in the 2nd round has a 50% chance of making the SCF and 25% chance of winning. 
So add those numbers together (3x0.25 chance of making finals + 4 x 0.5 chance of making finals)... one would expect that in the last decade the Canucks to have lost to 2.75 Stanley Cup Finalists, and 1.375 Stanley Cup Winners.


The actual numbers:
Canucks have lost 4 times to eventual Cup Winners:
'10 Hawks '07 Ducks '02 Red Wings '01 Avalanche
And 1 additional time to a Finalist:
'04 Flames

So basically, they've lost to finalists twice as often as should have been expected on average, and they've lost to the Stanley Cup Champion three times more than expected! Wow!

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.

Join Nucks Misconduct

You must be a member of Nucks Misconduct to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Nucks Misconduct. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker