Do the Canucks have what it takes?
by thelastjohnny on Mar 25, 2010 1:20 AM PDT
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Once again we're nearing that time of year when the rest of Canada tries to decide who to cheer for. Their team's been eliminated, but they still want to see the Stanley Cup come home for its first time since '93. Naturally, the diehards will refuse to cheer anyone on but their own team, but some of us just want to watch some good playoff hockey and need a team to attach ourselves to.
On tsn.ca, Dave Hodge thinks it's the Canucks that Edmontonians and Torontonians will have to start cheering for (or against). In his own blog, he poses the question, "What is the No. 1 reason the Vancouver Canucks will, or will not, win the Stanley Cup?"
Since everyone here has been watching the Canucks all season, I want to hear what you have to say.
For every team there are always question marks surrounding them. Are Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin playoff performers? Can Ryan Kesler take the Canucks on his shoulders and lead them to the Cup? Is Roberto Luongo a potential Conn Smythe winner? Will the 4th line be a hinderance or simply do their job?
Those are legitimate questions, but if I were bring it down to one factor that would make or break the playoff run it'd be the defense. We saw it in the olympics, where Team Canada won because their defense could control the game. We see it in the Chicago Blackhawks, where the goalies have unexpectedly great stats. And we don't see it in the Washington Capitals, who are 6th out of the 8 current eastern playoff teams in goals against. If all the other top teams in the East weren't struggling, I wouldn't pick them to go past the second round.
So where are the problems I see on the defense?
Christian Erhoff has started struggling since playing with Andrew Alberts, having an even plus/minus since Alberts' first game in Chicago. Not very good for someone who used to be top 5 in the NHL in that category. Will he still be Errorhoff come playoff time?
Kevin Bieksa has been -5 since coming back 6 games ago and has not had a positive game. He's looked lost and out of place on the ice and we're hoping he'll bounce back quicker than he did last time he was out because of cut to his leg.
Willie Mitchell, will he be back in time from his concussion, and will he be ready to play playoff hockey?
Alexander Edler has seen his numbers slump from last year and he doesn't always look like the top 4 defenseman we want him to be. At least he has Erhoff and Salo here to take the offensive pressure off of him, but if the Canucks want to make it to the finals, he's someone I'd look at to pick up his play in the post-season.
Sami Salo needs to stay healthy. He plays great hockey when he is, and his blast from the point keeps the backend dangerous.
Shane O'Brien and Aaron Rome have been playing some good hockey. SOB has been keeping it simple and keeping out of the box. It's been interesting to see Rome throw out some great stretch passes and jumping up on the rush. These two have to be solid, eat up some minutes, and contribute offensively when they can.
Now I know it's easy to call out players individually and they'll all make mistakes every so often. In that respect, the Canucks can also be more responsible defensively. When the Canucks fall behind, they push hard offensively, and give up a lot more odd-man rushes. That's the way they've played, and if Luongo plays well, it can pay off great. If Luongo isn't playing well, then they better learn to bail him out preemptively instead of just the usual come from behind wins.
That's my one (very long) reason. Have your own say down below.
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Nice post. I Rec’d you.
Still wondering what
Can Ryan Kesler individually will the rest of the Canucks all the way?means. I feel like I got this article off of Google Translate or something.
My biggest concern right now is D zone coverage. Not just D men but the whole team. Too many scoring chances against right now and since our goalie is struggling we need to limit chances until he gets back to form.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 4:27 PM PDT reply actions
From the 12th definition on dictionary.com: “to influence by exerting will power” I’ll change the wording on that. Anything else? No one can be bothered to proofread their on work on the internet.
I think the forwards have been decent with their D-zone coverage, but I can see what you mean by that. For one, Wellwood has looked out of place back there despite playing so well in the other end.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 24, 2010 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
OHHHHH you meant will as in will power. OK well now that makes sense. I read it wrong I guess.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
off-topic, re: earlier:
who doesn’t have a top-10 list of animals?
by Passive Voice on Mar 24, 2010 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Most people? Although if pressed I’m pretty sure my top animal would be Human.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 24, 2010 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
you’d think so, but then a guy like Pronger comes along…
by Passive Voice on Mar 24, 2010 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions
If that’s a serious question, I’d gladly answer my own question and share my top 10.
Even if it means risking jeers from boys.
"I was thinking it would be cool to see a game on the road. I have been looking all over this atlas but I don't see Vancouver anywhere. What state is this sh*t in!?"
- Dallas Stars Forum
by eightyseven on Mar 24, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Bieksa has not had a good game? I disagree. He was good in his first 3 I believe.
I strongly believe the Canucks have what it takes. All those come from behind wins on the road showed a lot of character. Playing so well without Mitchell is a testament. Now if Lou has another gear that he will show us in the playoffs I’m just plain ol’ stoked!
He looked good for someone who came back from a long-term injury, but I’m looking forward to when he can play like we know he can.
By the way, what’s your one reason you think they will win it all? You just gave two and a half.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 24, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree
I think he’s been out of position and a liability as usual.
Everybody knows
That the world is full of stupid people
Well I got the pistols so I'll keep the Pesos
Yeah that seems fair
Not playing to his salary, that’s for sure.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 24, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you guys even look into advanced stats before you make statements like these? Obviously not!
Look here: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/4WQSHelLQK8/S6pxNHsa-aI/AAAAAAAAAPM/KACVFRWAiA/s1600/jblowsucks.png
Then look here: http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=32§ion=corsi&mingp=&mintoi=&team=VAN&pos=D
As you can see, Bieksa (9.1) and Ehrhoff (9.7) have similar Corsi#’s as such names as Lidstrom, Boyle, Chara, Niedermier, Pronger, Rafalski.
In fact, your beloved Willie Mitchell & Sami Salo come in with the worst of the numbers for full time Canucks, Willies being a weak -7.3, Sami’s being -8.1…. Those are close to Jay Blowmester numbers folks.
They might be slumping in the short term, but for the season, they are among the elite d-men in the game (Bieksa & Ehrhoff).
by Jesse Taylor on Mar 25, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, but we don’t take the Corsi number on its own seriously here. Besides, if you look at the Corsi weighted by QOC, Mitchell is at 1.591 and Salo is at 0.462, the two highest on the team (To be fair, Bieksa is third at 0.419).
I don’t know where you got that jblow.png file, but I wouldn’t make that as the sole case as to why he “sucks.” (Note: I don’t think he does.) Rather, it’s because his point production is way down compared to his last 4 seasons. Some might attribute this because he got to pad his stats in the Southeast division, which made him overrated, but he’s still young and can improve.
And by the way, stop blindly following stats. You can’t compare Bieksa and Erhoff to Lidstrom and Rafalski just because their corsi numbers are similar. Don’t you even watch any hockey games before you make statements like these? Obviously not!
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 25, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
sorry jesse, but he’s right. i’m sure you do watch some hockey (otherwise i wouldn’t have seen you here before), but you can’t look at corsi alone when judging players.
besides, just look at ryan johnson. his corsi is crap, but his play saves the team quite often.
Official Ambassador for Nucks Misconduct.
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GO CANUCKS GO!
“look at ryan johnson. his corsi is crap, but his play saves the team quite often.”
This is exactly what Im pointing out people. You say Willie is the saviour, yet, his advanced numbers dont support that.
You can say that Bieksa is playing bad, but his advanced numbers dont support that.
Observations can be distorted, just as stats can be used to distort the view of a player.
IMO, Willie gets too much love, and Bieksa doesnt get enough. Thats all Im saying here.
by Jesse Taylor on Mar 25, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Corsi by itself is about as useful as +/- by itself.
Missing from your analysis:
Kevlar’s Corsi Qualcomp=.419
Willie’s Corsi Qualcomp=1.591
Kevlar’s O-zone faceoff %=50.4
Willie’s O-zone faceoff %=43.0
Willie gets the toughest assignments on the team on a regular basis. I agree that Bex isn’t a total sinkhole, but I don’t think throwing Mitch under the bus is the way to prove it.
BTW, I’m a big fan of pairing them together against the other team’s top lines.
by Passive Voice on Mar 25, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
“And by the way, stop blindly following stats. You can’t compare Bieksa and Erhoff to Lidstrom and Rafalski just because their corsi numbers are similar. Don’t you even watch any hockey games before you make statements like these? Obviously not!”
This is exactly why I stated these stats. Your observations of how Bieksa is “not looking good for their salary” is completely in the face of the facts. The facts are, that they are playing an elite level of defence. Despite what you think your seeing when you watch them play.
I dont blindly follow stats, and I dont blindly watch what I see on t.v. without looking over the stats and making a compairison. In this case, Your wrong about how they are “not playing up to their salary”. Both obsevation and stats prove this.
by Jesse Taylor on Mar 25, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think Willie Mitchell is infallible either.
Your observations of how Bieksa is "not looking good for their salary" is completely in the face of the facts.
Except you’ve provided one “fact”. Your point is that there’s one stat that can make or break how a player is viewed.
As well, those stats are for Bieksa over the whole season. He’s played some good hockey, but he hasn’t been since coming back from the break, which was my original point in the article.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 25, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
This is where the Jay Bo info came from, something I was reading: http://www.domebeers.com/
by Jesse Taylor on Mar 25, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
As for this case, Jay looks like shit, and his numbers support the case. If you watch any Calgary flames that is.
by Jesse Taylor on Mar 25, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
May surprise some
because it seems I’m perceived as negative about the Nucks more often than not, but I feel WAY better about this team and it’s chances than I did to start the year.
Why? Well the Sedins, Kes, Burr, Raymond, Samuelsson, Erhoff etc have all exceeded expectations, the Nucks have the 3rd best +/- in the league, with only 1 other team being even close, and because they’ve done that while having very inconsistent goaltending, a lot of injuries, and not much contribution beyond their top 6 forwards. That and because Lu won Oly Gold gives me renewed hope, but mostly because of the will to win shown by Kes and Burr who continue to drive this team forward almost every shift and who I think have solidified themselves as exactly the kind of players a team needs to be successful in the postseason.
I think if Lu’s even close to as good as he can be consistently in the playoffs it’s going to take a very good team playing very well to beat us.
Everybody knows
That the world is full of stupid people
Well I got the pistols so I'll keep the Pesos
Yeah that seems fair
I think if Lu’s even close to as good as he can be consistently in the playoffs it’s going to take a very good team playing very well to beat us.
Getting Demo and Samuelsson back will be a plus.
"I was thinking it would be cool to see a game on the road. I have been looking all over this atlas but I don't see Vancouver anywhere. What state is this sh*t in!?"
- Dallas Stars Forum
by eightyseven on Mar 24, 2010 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Holy crap yoata makes a statement that not only doesn’t sound like he’s trying to pick a fight, but more oddly yet, I AGREE WITH HIM. Stop the world I want to get off. :P
Yes, I don’t think i’ve ever seen a Canucks team with as much positive for it going into the playoffs as this one, and I really think the only essential piece of the puzzle currently missing is luongo playing consistently to his level. Obviously the return of Demo and Sammy are important, but we can do ok without them…we can’t go deep with luongo playing average. That’s just my opinion.
"Hope you like pancakes, Norway..." Morgan Freeman
"you'll be playing in england the rest of your career" Sir Alex Burrows
Agree
When I distill it down to what I consider the essence, it’s Roberto’s playing which will influence their progress in the ploffs the most.
by Bobby Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Reason for >:-( >:-( >:-(
I’d be lying if i said i weren’t a little nervous about the D. ehrhoff’s a guy i’m comfortable with anywhere on the ice, but not against top comp. i’d really like to see Big Thick Willie back, because he’s about our only defenseman that i feel really comfortable with matched against a top line. The rest are okay, but compared to Chicago (the only team worth comparing yourself to if you want to make Ploffy noise), it’s amateur week.
Reasons for :S :S :S
Lu. He’s undeniably awesome. I’m just hoping he’s taking a bit of a post-Limpix/pre-Ploffs nap right now, and that the air of negativity around him is mostly a product of our (Canucks fans’) need to be pessimistic about something.
Reasons for XD XD XD
I still really like the various pieces we have to choose from up front, especially our centre depth if Welly can maintain his recent energy and Balls can block a bunch of shots and generally not fuck up too badly otherwise.
I think they have a very average defense, but their scoring power, plus if Lu gets back his usual form, can more than make up for that.
Ehrhoff, Salo and Edler are defensemen who can score any time.
And they have 3 dangerous scoring lines:1) Sedins+Burrows,2) Kes+Ray+Grab, and 3) Samuelsson+Demitra+Wellwod.
They can outscore any opponent, IF they give 100%.
Los Angeles, CA
I think getting Demo and Samuelsson is necessary not just a plus for these Canucks to go anywhere past round one. If both of them get back in the mix we have two great lines and a third that will be dangerous. Bonus: AV gets to slot who goes where to make that happen.
Given that our system is based on puck possession, we need two forward lines to consistently roll in a game and take the pressure off the backend – who look to pass first not defend. You don’t end up second in the league in scoring playing shut down D and only Mitchell is in there for that. Bonus: Lou is happy and suited to face shooters one-on-one or even two-on-one if there isn’t some jackass defender to bounce it in off of….
I’d love it if Grabner got a goal, off the schneid and relaxed a bit. Until then I’m going to wait for the guys we paid the big bucks to get back in the game before I get too excited.
To me it seems that Grabner’s presence on his line has made Raymond more intense and aggressive. The two have the ability to present consistent hi-lite reel scoring if only they developed more accurate shots.
by Bobby Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
With Grabs, Demo and Fu in the lineup, AV will have an abundant menu to manipulate (one from collumn A, one from collumn B, one from collumn C…
by Bobby Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they can do it..
But they’ll have to dig deeper than they’ve ever dug. ESPECIALLY AGAINST TEAMS LIKE CHI-TOWN AND DETROIT. And NO MORE 7 GOAL GAMES FOR LU.
Other than that, it should be a breeze. 4 series sweep, anyone?
"But yeah…like CC…I harbour no ill will." - VancityDan
by Chuckles Canuckles on Mar 25, 2010 1:10 AM PDT reply actions
Speaking of expectations....
Jay Bouwmeester hate by a Lames blog here.
"But yeah…like CC…I harbour no ill will." - VancityDan
by Chuckles Canuckles on Mar 25, 2010 1:26 AM PDT reply actions
I am cautiously optomistic...
On any given year… something unexpected happens, and the applecart gets turned over.
From the Goalie on out… everyone has to have an extra gear… greater drive… gas in the tank… whatever cliche you want to apply, the team that has, gets.
The Canucks have a great Goaltender in Lu. Have a good backup in Rayzer. Check.
Defense is the question that troubles me. I’ve said before that I beileve Bieksa is struggling with coming back too soon… but I would take him hurt, over Alberts. SOB is playing smarter and better, and hopefully Hoff gets his head back into it. Salo has to stay vertical. Mitchell… I don’t know.
The 2 top lines are solid… and I believe with Ryan J as a leader, the Canucks will start to block shots and do the “extra” tasks that playoff hockey requires.
It’s the first team to 16 wins. I believe the Canucks possess the pieces that could get them there. It will be interesting to see if everything holds up, and come together. I hope and believe it will !!!
Thanks for joining the site BobSongs, welcome aboard.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Good news: The Canucks have the talent to win it all this year.
Bad news: Willie Mitchell is probably done for the season and maybe even his career. I really didn’t like the story on him and his troubles; sounds bad. Maybe he’ll yet bounce back, I hope so, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it.
More good news: team depth is excellent. Grabner looks poised out there and seems awfully close to breaking out. If he does, then add back Samuelsson and Demo and the team will have three scoring lines instead of just two.
Plus I expect Luongo to bounce back. I really think he’s just a little burnt out right now and should take a few more games off.
Oh, and a question for you capologists: do we have the space for Mitchell to return w/out losing someone else? Now that Demo’s back, we’re pretty tight, no?
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
I don’t know the answer to your question but since it seems Mitchell is a long way off from returning the simple answer is there is no cap in the playoffs.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 25, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
At the start of the season, we all “knew” a trade was in the works because we just didn’t have the cap space once everyone got healthy. Somehow we’ve gone all season without that happening, but it could yet be true for the first time … in the playoffs!
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
"Willie Mitchell is probably done for the season and maybe even his career."
What with the lingering effects of his injury, I seriously cringe at the thought of him playing again this season, playoffs included.
by Bobby Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe we are in for a long run. Even with the injuries, the distractions and everything else, this team has shown an incredible capability to win games. I think that may be why when they do win a game they likely shouldn’t it seems so bad, because for the most part they’ve played at a very high level. There’s huge expectations in this city, but I think this is the year the long suffering Canucks fans finally get something to cheer about. They’ll get a little help with some of their conference rivals getting upset, but as they move forward, and get healthy, the Canucks are a legitimate threat. Goaltending. Defense that can score. 3 line that are a threat to score. And a team that has battled adversity all season long. The entire season and it’s events have prepared this team for a long run into the playoffs.
WAACH Blog/Podcast- The 38th best Canucks blog on the Interwebs http://waachcast.blogspot.com
When was the last time the Canucks could lose:
1. The top pt getter from the Olympics; and
2. A 30-goal Stanley cup vet; and;
3. Their top shutdown D-man; and
And still be expected to win?
(and I didn’t even have to include Bernier in that list)
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
Anyone else find it intriguing that the most games the Canucks have lost in a row this season is 3…and it’s only happened twice..once in October and once in November
and what is that old saying, bad teams don’t lose more than 3 in a row?
WAACH Blog/Podcast- The 38th best Canucks blog on the Interwebs http://waachcast.blogspot.com
Wow, nice factoid. What’s their longest winning streak? Do those mean anything?
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 25, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
winning streaks mean squat :) The longest winning streak was 7 games in January…making us forget about the January from hell from last season
by Sean Zandberg on Mar 25, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Let’s not forget how deliciously good defensive specialist Kyle Wellwood has been playing since the Oly’s.
I thought he was a playm—oh I see what you did there.
So don't get violent and don't get caught with your head down, the night she stole the moon.
by thelastjohnny on Mar 25, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Burrows-Sedin-Sedin
Raymond-Kesler-Grabner
Samuelsson-Demitra-Hansen
Rypien-Wellwood-Johnson (the centre line!)
(in reserve: Bernier, Glass, Hordi)
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
I don’t see any situation right now in which wellwood go to four…hansen will be on line four first. Wellwood’s just playing way too well right now to push him down to 5 minutes a game…
"Hope you like pancakes, Norway..." Morgan Freeman
"you'll be playing in england the rest of your career" Sir Alex Burrows
OK, flip Hansen and Welly and shuffle the lines and we get:
Burrows-Sedin-Sedin
Raymond-Kesler-Grabner
Samuelsson-Wellwood-Demitra
Rypien-Johnson-Hansen
Actually, I think I like that even better.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
AV seemed pretty set on putting FUS on the top line before he got hurt. Be interesting to see if he drops Burr back down when he returns.
If so, I pretty much just shot those combos all to hell. Sorry.
Leave my name alone Botchford...get your own.
Would make it...
FUS-Twin-Twin
Burr-Kes-Demo (dont’ like Demo here, but I bet it will happen
Mayray-Welly-Grabs (Hansen will sub Grabs..doubt he’ll see fourth line)
Ryp-Hordi-Glass
Leave my name alone Botchford...get your own.
Burrows switching w/Sammy would be OK. I think a line of…
Burrows-Wellwood-Demitra
…would be solid.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
Here's mine (when healthy)
I think last night showed us again why Burr should be with the Sedins.
Burr-Twins
Raymond-KesLord-Grabs
Sammy-Demo-Bernier
Rypper-Johnson-Glass
Sorry Welly.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 25, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't know
don’t care. If he wants to play on my team he plays center.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 25, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Lately Welly’s been fitting in both offensively and defensively better than Demo. The problem is will either disappear under the pressures of end of season games and the playoffs. Given how Welly played in last year’s post season, let’s hope he continues that trend.
by Bobby Canuck on Mar 25, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Wellwood will never earn back any trust from me no matter how well he plays. We are always one game away from the shitty barely AHL level of play Welly coming back. Demo performed big at the Olympics and I would expect his level of play to rise come playoff time.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 25, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
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