In the run up to the game against the Avs, Zandberg wondered why everyone was piling on the 4-2 Canucks winning score bandwagon. He postulated that 4-2 was the most common score from last year, and I thought that would something interesting to look at.
So, jump with me to examine the game score trends from last year, and discover where to place your bets for the best chance at winning precious, precious points. Complete with many graphs.
First up, I took a look at the overall breakdown of goals for and goals against, split into wins and losses. Below, one graph for each.
As you can see, the most common winning goal total was 4, with 3 right behind it and the most common goals against in a win was 1, with 2 nipping on its heels. The 4-2 thing looks to have a bit of traction here. Also, the most common goals for in a loss was far and away 2, so that's something to keep in mind if you want to indulge in some numbskullery every once in a while. (NOTE: a moderate dose of numbskullery is suggested as part of a healthy diet, as it helps temper your expectations)
Next up, the real meat and potatoes - putting it together to see the most common game scores. Again, broken down by win and by loss
Well, well, what do we see here? 4-2 is actually one of the least likely winning scores. 4-3, 3-2, and 4-1 blow it out of the water. In fact, fully one third (34.7%) of the wins last year were by 1 goal (also, 40% of the losses were as well).
So there you have it. If you were getting on the 4-2 bandwagon (I think I was as well), it's time to jump off before it careens off that cliff just over the ridge there. I wish this was an episode of MythBusters so they could throw up that sweet "Busted" graphic. Aw hell, here we go anyways:
And, just for completion, a quick little graph of the most common GWG potters last year. Big surprise at #1 here.
Hope this helps you all become better score predicting wizards. But not too much better, since I still plan on blowing everyone out of the water.