FanPost

Hockey Pool Research: Trade Henrik Sedin?

Something is special this year. Henrik is leading the league in points. And there's been a lot of people trying to reason why Henrik has been playing so well. Most of the articles I've read have pointed at Henrik's ability to play at a higher level, by himself (when Daniel Sedin was injured) and with Alex Burrows. And I agree, Henrik has stepped up. However, when taking a look from a different perspective, it seems like Henrik has also had something going for him that other players in the NHL haven't, and that the table will turn soon as the Olympics role around. Why do the Olympics matter? The Olympics have changed the Canucks schedule.

To this date (Buffalo game not in account) The Canucks have played 29 home games, and 22 away games. Which means they have 19 more away games to play, but only 12 home games left. Based on this year, the Canucks have played better at home. The Sedins, this year, have produced more points at home than away. Henrik Sedin, in 29 home games, has produced 47 points. In his 22 away games, he has produced 27 points. Henrik averages, so far this year, 1.62 points at home and 1.22 points away. You'll see a similar development with Burrows and Daniel Sedin. Now, with all the games left to be played away, of which 14 in a row will be played away starting January 30th, I caution that Henrik will not be able to produce as many points playing away as he has at home. Therefore, this present owners of Henrik Sedin (Daniel Sedin and Alex Burrows, also) with an opportunity to cash in Henrik while he remains the NHL's scoring leader, and to get another high quality player. For example, Crosby and Malkin have 65 and 51 points. Interestingly, both have point totals around 1.5 playing home, while around 1 playing away. However, the Pens, unlike the Canucks, have not played as many games at home to this date. They have 16 games at home and 13 on the road remaining. Finding two players of similar home and away production and where home production is greater than away production, why not trade for more home games then?

I hope you find this to be an interesting perspective and that it might help you analyze players in hockey pools differently. All I'm trying to do is win my hockey pool, and I saw this as an opportune time to trade Henrik, before his value has the potential to decrease, and thought I would let other fellow hockey poolers know my thoughts as to why Henrik has outperformed his peers and might underperform in the near future.

Nonetheless, I do recognize the flaws in my analysis, namely that I heavily weighted the impact of playing at home versus playing away. Furthermore, I only looked at this year's stats. Most importantly, agree or disagree with this analysis, I am asking whether playing at home or away matters for players scoring ability, when, how, and why?

Would love to hear your comments

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