Kesler Is Mike Gillis' Next Signing Priority, But When Should Gillis Extend Him?

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 3, 2009 11:49 PM PDT in The Gillis Era Comment 30 comments

At the post-Luongo signing presser, Gillis said that Ryan Kesler is his next priority. And the Keslord is both flattered and persistent that he wants to play his whole career in Vancouver.

"Obviously it's good if they want to extend you before your contract's over," Kesler said following workouts at UBC. "That's something pretty special. I've said before I want to play here the rest of my career. So whatever happens happens."

Is there really any hurry to lock this guy up? I think that there are arguments for and against it.

The Pros

Let's face it, Kesler is not just a core part of the team. He bleeds for the Canucks. He is a leader. He pulls no punches in post game interviews and challenges himself mostly, but also his mates. He had a career year last season, scoring 26 goals and 59 points in 82 games, a 22-point increase from the previous season.

How can you not love a guy who, along with Alexandre Burrows, preaches pay cuts to teammates to keep the team intact before being shushed by the powers that be?

He's versatile. He plays so well at both ends of the ice. He can adapt to any role.

Given that Kesler is a huge commodity, it will be somewhat of a distraction if he isn't locked up before the season starts.

The Cons:

There are strings attached to his career year. One big string would be Mats Sundin. Before the RPM Line consisting of Kesler, Sundin and Pavol Demitra was formed in the 4-3 win against Carolina that snapped an 8-game losing skid, Kesler had played 50 games, scoring 11 goals and 27 points for a .54 points-per-game pace. After the RPM line was formed, he played 32 games and scored 15 goals and 32 points. It's no secret that it helped him not only by clicking with Sundin and loving playing with him, but he moved off that 3rd line as a checker and received more minutes in a more offensive role.

How will Kesler fare if Mats Sundin does not return? Is it going to hurt his production or is he going to come into his own as he matures as a player? Would a Kesler-Demitra-Samuelsson/Burrows line keep Kesler at a point-per-game pace? This is up to Kesler.

This is concerning...

Verdict:

These question marks dictate how much the Keslord can make after his current contract expires. Is Kesler true to his word about signing for less? Well then I think he should be signed now at a steal. But what is Mike Gillis thinking? Who knows. In my opinion, there are too many "what-ifs" tied to Kesler's production from last year and I want to see him hit that 60 point season again this year before I'd call him a guaranteed offensive force. If he can't put up decent numbers offensively, he may be delegated back into more of a checking role, thus reducing his value.

What do you think?

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Comments

We’ve all watched him play; he’s for real.

He reminds of the Habs’ cup winners over the years. They always had a Gainey, a Carbonneau, a Keane … a two way player who would shut you down with their checking but who could also pot a goal of his own the moment you let your guard down. Kesler is in that mold.

But can Kesler the player maintain it? Depends on Kesler the man. I’ve never met him; Gillis has. This decision’s a character call.

by casual on Sep 4, 2009 12:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well we know Kesler is not one to quit.
I am concerned about his 4 points in 10 playoff games as well, which I forgot to mention in the post.

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 4, 2009 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell you doing up at this time of night?

Me, that’s different of course.

Anyway, 10 games is an awfully small sample, Sundin was not himself, and I don;t know what instructions AV had given to Kesler as to what style of hockey he should play.

But overall, Kesler has shown a lot of talent … for about one year … so should we go with it? Man, I’d have to know the man better than that in order to make such a call. I he’s good for it, sign him, make him happy, get a discount, lock him in. But you’d want to be pretty sure.

If it’s a front-loaded deal again, he’s still pretty tradeable just in case…

by casual on Sep 4, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have this feeling that Kesler is one of those guys who just keeps getting better and better the longer he plays. I think he’s going to be exceptional. Sign him long term.

by Bobby Canuck on Sep 4, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rebuttal!

Evgeni Malkin last year flamed out late in the ECF and Stanley Cup.
This year? Money.

I expect Kesler to show a few playoff teams that his pimp hand is way strong this season.

by Sneps-ish on Sep 4, 2009 3:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please don’t compare Kesler to Malkin

by T.Haynes on Sep 4, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I meant to compare Kesler to Diego Rivera. That or a tire iron.

I’m not looking at point totals, my argument was he could bounce back
from a so-so postseason a la Geno.

by Sneps-ish on Sep 5, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also drew a lot of coverage from the Blackhawks which surely hurt his ability to score in the postseason. I think with more scoring threats this year that won’t be a problem.

Bring me Stanley. Alive if possible, dead... just as good.

by King Luongshanks on Sep 4, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't care how much he scores

he’s worth resigning even if he reverts to a third line guy. i really don’t think that’s going to happen, he’s on a career path to be playing for team usa and i think will be an all star in the next year or two, but his worth to the canucks is his leadership and attitude. i’d pay him 4M per for a lot of years and be happy to have him at that.

by bitterguy on Sep 4, 2009 1:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I’d pay him just for the attitude and worth ethic. But couple with that the fact he’s progressively getting better every season. If you’re worried about the Sundin effect, then let him play a few months and see how he does. Extend him in the middle like MG did with Edler and Burrows last year. I’d be fine with that.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Sep 4, 2009 4:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was born and raised in Michigan but chose to go to Ohio State. Buckeyes and Wolverines are natural enemies. It speaks to his contrariness, orneriness, and strength of character. That kind of determination doesn’t fade with a large contract. :)

Even from a pure attitude standpoint, he’s worth it. Scorers are hard to find, but that kind of attitude can be even more difficult to find and worth keeping. If he is gone, it will be difficult to replace what he brings to the team.

"For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else." -- Winston S. Churchill

by Baroque on Sep 4, 2009 4:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This guy’s captain material, no doubt; but Sean’s right to question his production. I think $4 million is awfully high for a 3rd line checker, even one that puts up 60 points a season (if he can).

To be clear: I’m NOT saying the guy is only a 3rd line checker! He’s clearly more than that; but with his drive and shut-down ability, it may be the best place for him. He’s taking PP and PK time, and belongs there in both cases, so he certainly earns money for those roles.

However…

If he can only put up 25 goals/60 points, then we’ll need to afford finishers as well.

On the other hand, Detroit’s signed up Johann Franzen for $4 million per until 2020, so there’s certainly a precedent. Unless the League cancels it after investigation, of course! snicker

The down side of front-loading is shorting the team in the next couple years, and who knows what the cap’s going to be at that point. Faith in Gillis, I suppose. He seems to know what he’s doing.

by Thursday on Sep 4, 2009 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You wouldn't front load this deal...

Unless you made it a 15 year deal or so. And there is no way you give these types of contracts to these types of players.

Remember Mike Peca? He had some awesome years as this type of player scoring 56 points for Buffalo in 98-99 (He was turning 25 in ‘99). Great defensive presence too. Kind of like Kesler’s 59 points this last year (Just turned 25). Well guess what, Mike Peca wasn’t that good for too much longer, and is no where near the type of player he was. Will Kesler be the same? I know there were injury problems, but that comes with the type of game they both play.

I love Kesler, but you just don’t hand out crazy contracts to every guy that works hard.

3 million 3 years.

by T.Haynes on Sep 4, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The down side of front-loading is shorting the team in the next couple years

I disagree. A bad front-load deal might cost the owners some extra bucks, but the team and its cap hits are fine; better then they would have been, actually.

Front-loading’s real risk is if the guy’s performance falls off and you’re now stuck w/a the player on a long-term deal. But that could happen just as easily w/out front-loading.

It’s prob a moot point, anyway. Gillis was clear that Luongo was a special case; even the twins didn’t get that long a term. Gillis (correctly, I think) realizes that a franchise goalie is extremely hard to find, but good fw’s are not, at least by comparison.

by casual on Sep 4, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kesler is worth 4 mil easy. Imagine Horcoff in Edmonton gettin 5.5 mil for puttin up 50-65 pts a year. Both players bring so much more to the table than just points. If Kes wants to play his whole career here, then sign him up now for 7 years at 28 mil.
If he puts up 70 pts and is the MVP, his price will go up to 5 mil per. Nows the time to lock him up.

by Nuckels on Sep 4, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Please...

Don’t compare him to to a bad contract in the NHL! Of course he looks good next to Horcoff.

However, let’s call a spade a spade and realize that Kesler is a 45-55 point player. He is not going to shoot 14.5% every year like he did last year, and will probably revert to a more normal 12% (Career 11.1%)

So if you want to pay for what could be very likely a career year then I’m glad your not in charge. 3 million a season for 3 years. Good deal for both, not just for Kesler!

by T.Haynes on Sep 4, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hell yeah! I can agree with 3 years or more at $3 million!

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 4, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Horcoff?

Why not compare him to Briere? Surely, if he can get $8 million, Kesler must be worth $12 million…

by Thursday on Sep 4, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apart from making it 4 years at 3.2, I agree…lets get er done Mike….

vancitydan

by vancitydan on Sep 4, 2009 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that in Kesler’s case, signing Sundin definitely took a lot of the pressure off him while he transitioned from a 3rd line checking centre to a 2nd line offensive weapon. I don’t think that Sundin would make as big as an impact this season; it’s usually the first season in a new role that’s the most difficult on a player. Same thing I think works in the playoffs; it’s very rare that a player in his first playoffs scores as proficiently in the playoffs than he does in the regular season. Heck, even Markus Naslund didn’t get himself going until the ‘03 playoffs.
Even if he is only destined to be a very good checking center, for a few years he can at least bridge the gap until Cody Hodgson is ready to assume the 2nd line center spot. I really don’t see him signing for more than 3 mil/year, likely for four years.

by splnwezel on Sep 4, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Funny, when I watched them play last year I thought it was Kesler who improved Sundin, not the other way around.

4 × 3 is fine by me. Kesler is the kind of two way player who wins championships.

by casual on Sep 4, 2009 7:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey now! No down-playing the might and power of Sundin! haha. We’ll see if you’re right or not. It could be a combo of both complimenting eachother, however, Sundin made players better in Toronto (see Jonas fucking Hoglund)

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 5, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://canucks.nhl.tv/team/console.jsp?catid=6&id=45873

Mike says he will be talking to Mats in a couple days…from the “slip” in the answer, it seems that he may give a “wee” bit of leeway…but none of this dangling stuff.

I thought they both improved each other. I see no reason why to not try to keep what you know is good chemistry.

Put a guy with a great shot like Shirokov…(thats right…I said it, he makes the team AND the 2nd line_) with Kes and Mats and his vision and thinking the game,and you not only have a dangerous line that still leaves talent for another dangerous 3rd line.

Even though he is a past Gillis client though, I can’t see Demo as being on that line again.

For some reason, packaging him with a couple other guys maybe, for a young #6 forward…looks very possible.

But then that puts Shirokov on the 3rd line….

Still OK!!

vancitydan

by vancitydan on Sep 4, 2009 7:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That clip is several days old. He hasn’t talked to Mats yet, who is still honeymooning in southern Europe somewhere. I think we can expect some Sundin info next week.

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Sep 5, 2009 1:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dan,

Have you had an opportunity to see Shirokov play yet, maybe at UBC? I’ve only really seen the youtube hilite compilation, which tells me almost nothing.

Shirokov sounds like a talent, but he’s making an awfully big leap to an awfully crowded team. I think his back’s to the wall and that’ll motivate him, but I could also see a little warmup time in the AHL first to help him adjust to the smaller ice, the style of play, etc.

Hey, that brings up a point:

Q: How will we know that he impressed the Canucks at all?
A: If they put him on a line with Mike Keane for a while!

Seriously, if they think a guy has talent and they wanna develop him into a full meal deal, Keane’s the obvious mentor, no?

by casual on Sep 5, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs