Six Questions Regarding The Canucks Offense
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 1:51 PM PDT
49 comments
I think Alain Vigneault haunts me in my sleep (which frankly isn't cool, I should be slaying dragons or the Jonas Brothers during that time). But I can't shake the fear that the Canucks will have problems scoring every season, the upcoming one being no different.
Last year, when Gillis mandated a more up-tempo and less coma-inducing offense, Vigneault (to his credit) adapted his style and the Canucks vaulted from 23rd in the league to 11th in scoring.
But based on the biggest offensive changes so far this summer (Samuelsson in, Sundin out) is there any reason to think they can improve their production per game? Anything's possible, but as always, there's good reason to be skeptical.
With the first preseason game exactly one month away, here's six random questions regarding the Canucks offense.
1. So just who are the forwards?
With the news that Sergei Shirokov is heading to training camp, it adds to an already interesting problem for the Gillis/Vigneault machine as to what the forward ranks look like (though knowing Vigneault is going to juggle them 30 seconds into game #1 is a given).
For the sake of argument, let's assume three things: Gillis will make no more additions or subtractions at the forward (hardly a stretch based on his year and change of service). Secondly, the twins will call the first line home again. Lastly, let's assume (though I doubt they'd do this) the Canucks elect to carry the 23 player maximum: two goalies, seven defensemen and 14 forwards.
That leaves 12 full time jobs up for the following NHL-caliber players:
Alex Burrows
Ryan Kesler
Pavol Demitra
Mikael Samuelsson
Steve Bernier
Kyle Wellwood
Mason Raymond
Jannik Hansen
Rick Rypien
Darcy Hordichuk
Ryan Johnson
There's some kids to keep in mind as well:
Cody Hodgson
Michael Grabner
Sergei Shirokov
Tanner Glass
Guillaume Desbiens
Eric Walsky
Mario Bliznak
Patrick White
Jordan Schroeder
If the rumors that Hodgson is a lock are true, there's your 12. But if history is any indication, it's probable that a standout in camp will make the cut (as Raymond did two years ago and Hansen last year) and that puts you a guy over. Grabner is the best bet to have a good camp and run the number to 13. But who knows: maybe Patrick White finds his stride, maybe Shirokov is ready for the NHL and Gagner already admitted that Schroeder could make the team now.
So who should make it? Who shouldn't? And if a guy like Grabner doesn't make it or conversely knocks someone like Hansen or Raymond out, should one of them be traded or just sent to the Moose to wait for the inevitable injury call-up?
2. Who rides shotgun with the Sedins?
I've seen it suggested in a few places that Samuelsson may get to be the third twin this year. However, the Sedins and Burrows line led the team with 61 ES points last year and, as you know, finding a proper line mate for the Sedins isn't exactly easy (only Burrows, Anson Carter and Taylor Pyatt can claim success as the third twin). Just plopping a Swede down in that role isn't a gurantee of anything; just ask Markus Naslund or Magnus Arvedson.
And, in case you're curious, the Sedins and Demitra were the second highest combination of ES points at 38. Does Vigneault stash 'spoldy bones on the first line again? Probably not as Demo's game is no where near the compliment that suits the Sedins well (i.e. driving to the net). And speaking of Demitra...
3. What's to be expected of Demitra?
Demo's point production per game inched up a bit last year, but has steadily decreased since the lockout (1.07 with Los Angeles, .90 and .70 in two years with the Wild and .77 last season). His average TOI is also down through the same four year span, 21:04 with LA to 17:29 with Vancouver. Can the soon to be 35 year old produce enough to be fourth in points (53) again? Naturally you're worried about his Salo-like durability, especially considering the last time we saw Demo he took himself out of the game by checking Brian Campbell. I'm of the mind Demitra is only as good as his linemates (the days where he could seemingly score at will are definitely over) and he seemed to gell well with Kesler so while his spot on the second line is likely safe, I'd expect lower numbers this season (and if the Canucks falter into next spring, he'd be an attractive guy to move though he does have the NTC).
4. Who replaces Pyatt and Sundin's production?
Losing Pyatt and Sundin means 14 ES goals. Obviously they'll be looking towards Samuelsson to make up for some of that - and hopefully Kesler and Burrows can add to their breakthrough seasons with a few more tallies - but how huge an impact could Steve Bernier be in that regard? If the Canucks training staff really worked on his conditioning and his hands of stone issue, he alone could make that number up and blossom into the power forward that scouts had projected him to be. I expect a lot of pressure to be on his shoulders; Bernier needs a great start and a big year. Same goes for Wellwood.
5. How bad will the breakout hangovers be for Burrows & Kesler (if at all)?
Around the end of January - somewhat in line with jumpstarting creaky ol' Mats Sundin and ending the massive losing streak Vancouver was on - Vigneault broke up the core of his checking line and gave Burrows the enticing first line role while Kesler lined up with Demitra on the Sundin line. It worked beautifully: Burrows and Kesler combined for 22 goals and 40 points and helped the team to a 14-3-2 record deep into March. Now with no Sundin to distract the opposing defenders and teams a bit smarter as to how to shutdown the twins and Burrows, it won't be as easy to repeat that production. Or will it? I suspect Kesler will have another strong year, but Burrows should crash back down to Earth since his ES numbers will be hard to duplicate. And, regardless of what I think, what's Vigneault's next trick if they both hit the wall?
6. Should Hordichuk play fewer games?
Blackout played 73 last year and ranked dead last in even strength TOI at 5v5. That's to be expected as most goons don't pile on the minutes, and while some of his puglist counterparts saw similar game starts (Parros at 74 and Boll at 75 GP), others saw far less: Boogaard suited up 51 times, Brashear 63, Stortini 52, and Cote at 63. Not to detract what a momentum shifter (pro and con) Blackout can be, but for a team so heavily penalized and already employing perennial shit stirrers in Rypien, Kesler, Bieksa, SOB and Bernier to a lesser extent, how valuable is Hordichuk's extremely limited on-ice contribution? Would the Canucks be better off scratching him 13 more games this year and leasing that slot to one of the many prospects waiting in the wing?
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Yankee, always enjoy your posts. Don’t always agree with them…but thats OK right?
I am not going to play the very tempting “what if” game right now. With a surfeit of forwards and a deal or two to be made on D’, I want to see who is here. I do agree that the youth could help make those decisions though. That means no deals until camp…at least.
I do disagree that Burr’ will fall back that much. He has enough offensive talent, drive and speed that he will be as good with the Wonder twins. Don’t forget, when watching them after they were put together with Burr’…it didn’t take long for the trio to score more off the rush, instead of off the cycle. It seemed both Hank and Dank were getting into the after the whistle stuff too. Didn’t Hank actually get a major or two? LOL
I think if Bernier can just train himself to go to the place where he was in the playoffs…just hitting and getting in front, he could easily be our Dustin Buf’ type player. I totally agree on him I think.
But until we get closer to what Mr. Gillis will be serving us this year, I kind of want to take a wait and see attitude.
I think the next big story will be Bobby Lou signing…I’ll take Aug. 24th in the pool Yankee, how about you?
vancitydan
Haha, disagree all you want (if you like being wrong). Just kidding.
I only mention Burrows crashing back to Earth because he had such an atypical year for the type of player he is and his ES rating and shooting percentage were considerably higher than previous years. I certainly don’t want him to fail, but I think he has a harder road ahead of him than Kesler who has steadily gotten better year to year and get’s ample PP time (Burr had no PP points).
I’ll agree with Lu though. I think Gillis will drag it out a bit longer…maybe the first week of September. I suspect the delay is maybe trying to land another defenseman so he knows his budget before signing on the dotted line.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree
Very accurate factual analysis, although I do take exception that the twins are hard to find a mate for, everyone that’s played with them for any length of time has scored much better than they previously did, going right back to when they were 3rd liners with Klatt, through Bulis, they were even responsible for Linden’s late resurgence.
The problem there is all they’ve ever had for linemates is borderline 2nd/3rd/4th liners. I think Sammy will do well with them as he loves to shoot and has a good shot and they create so many opps, If that doesn’t work, Burr is still a good option, Bernier is another, or even Raymond/Hansen/Grabner?Shirokov if you want a rookie on the top line, still think they are being somewhat wasted though without a true sniper on the line.
Also agree that Burr is likely to fall back to earth especially if taken off the Sedin line, but will still be a very valuable player, Kesler should continue to progress though.
Lots of ? to be sure especially with AV’s guessing style of line/O making.
Oh, one more thing…not sure I want Bernier being a Buf like player. I’d rather see him turn into a Holmstrom of a few years ago: an in your face, always in the crease, mucking around type player. He’s built for that, especially if he can’t shake that whole hands of stone thingy.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
especially if he can’t shake that whole hands of stone thingy.
Christ, then we have another Pyatt on our hands!
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 14, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Bobby Lou won’t sign until June 10th. There’s my guess.
I’m not concerned about the Canucks’ offence at all. Yeah, we lost Sundin and Pylon, but I think Samuelsson can bag at least 15. Combine that with an improved Bernier (goddammit he better score more) and an injection of Hodgson and/or Grabner, etc and we’ll score by committee.
A trade is inevitable though, IMO. Too many forwards. There’s no way Gillis sends them all back down. Hodgson, Grabner, Shroeder, Shirokov are all NHL-ready it seems and aren’t going to plug up Line 4, which I think will stay the way it is.
Burrows should stay with the Sedins. Will he slow down? It’s possible. But then promote Samuelsson and put Burrows with Kesler and Demitra.
My big question mark is whether or not Wellwood can pot 15 this year, or who will be the natural 3rd line center (as Hodgson plays the middle as well.)
It’s funny because I remember last year all the pressure there was on Pudge because of his fall from grace and Bernier because two teams straight had given up on him and now this year they both have equally more pressure. I do think if both of them can be smarter on the puck and find the net more at ES, it won’t matter that Sundin isn’t around, if Burrows has an off year, if Demitra explodes, etc…once again a lot of hope rides that third line.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, because those guys move up to the top 6 if shit happens (like Demo’s glass shoulder breaks)
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 14, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Good blog but a bit of mugs game
Not sure that looking at the ups and downs for each player in the goal department makes a lot of sense. The real question is will the forward unit be more or less effective than last year. I think likely more effective. The majority of our key forwards are moving closer to their prime. Further our next generation group is large crowd of good prospects all trying to elbow their way through a narrow door. That will generate intense internal compitiion for those third line, injury replacement or veteran benching opportunities.
In my view this is a recipe for highly motivated and highly effective forward unit. I like what Gillis has accomplished and what Vigneault has to work with. As always the proof will be in the pudding. As a long time Canuck fan you can never underestimate this groups ability to snatch defeat from the jaws for victory.
The real question is will the forward unit be more or less effective than last year.
That doesn’t include goals? If they are effective is largely a subjective matter, if they can maintain being a close to top ten team in goals production is another thing. If you rewind to two seasons ago when they just missed they playoffs, they blew almost 10 one goal games and close to 10 OTLs. A few of them last season also would have been a different story.
The majority of our key forwards are moving closer to their prime.
True and that’s why I am questioning (re: hoping) the ability of a few of them to step it up in Bernier and Wellwood, some like Kes and Burrows can maintain and guys like Demitra can at least put up comparable numbers.
What’s nice, and something I didn’t really above is that, unlike in previous years, I trust the kids coming up. I have blind optimism in Hodgson, rookie or not. The kid is legit and will save this team’s ass some day. The rest of the smaller signings Gillis did this year was a decent effort to shore up the prospect ranks too. A guy like Funk wouldn’t shock me at all if he made the cut on defense for example.
All in all, it’s a good time to be optimistic. But I don’t wear optimism that well ;)
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I like our forward lineup. I would demote Hordo though, and give Hodgson and Grabner the ice time. Both youngsters need to play in the NHL to elevate there games. Hordi is the expendable one cause his role is already filled by the team “toughness”.
I also expect Welly to have a HUGE season. Ideally trading a forward for someone like Brookbank in Anaheim would be the best bet.
I think Blackout has a role in some games (like every Calgary and Chicago game for example) but I agree…his slot is valuable and his role is muted if Rypien can stay healthy. Rypien shouldn’t be taking on the Laraques of the world…but you just know he will anyway.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Guys like Laraque aren’t scary. Rypien or O’Brien would do fine against guys like him. Its Boogard types who are scary, basically guys who don’t seem to operate by the code.
I think though that Hordi isn’t the greatest fighter on the team anyways, I like Rypiens chances more against pretty much anyone over Hordi.
Hordichuk is a great team guy, but a less than average fighter who is eating a roster spot, I agree. But is putting a Grabner with Balls and Ripper really the right choice on a line that only gets 5:00 or less of ice time?
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 14, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Throwin' Darts:
Looking into the crystal ball that is a work computer…..
Hansen and Shirokov on standby with the Moose, Blackout in the pressbox,
CoHo and Grabner getting a shot at the big time.
I like Hordichuk, but Rypien and SOB cover similiar bases.
Would it make sense to cut back on Demo’s minutes later in the season
and keep a proven(but regressing) goal scoring veteran on stand-by like Miro Satan
with the Pens?
(Satan only had 5 points in 7 ps games, but I digress)
I think Kesler will have another great season but I wouldn’t be surprised
if Jordan Staal nicks his Selke nomination this season.
Burrows I expect to have a quieter campaign, but his checking/energy will still be aces.
Guys like BGL aren’t scary? Ummm…yeah he is. There are some heavyweights in the East, and West for that matter, that are just too big for the Ripper. I think his nickname should be Wolverine…anyone that has ever read the comic book knows that Rypien has that “Logan” attitude. Maybe rolling Hordi in and out, but that 4th line wasn’t too bad as is.
And teams like the Wild and Oil, and Flames, all our division foes, ALL seem to have more than one HW.
Ripper should focus on being the best MW in the league…he is pretty close to that now. More work on the offense and he can move up a line…OR two!!
Trade Demo to the Rangers for Marc Staal.
Pending how Sergei Shirokov and the others do at camp ( and isn’t Schroeder and White and school a concern? I guess if you throw money at them, maybe they leave, but both would probably be better as camp experience and back to school type guys…They can do that ,right?)..pending that, you have a bunch of good players battling for spots. That is never bad.
CoHo makes the team, Grabs has to earn it, and may be the first call up. Funk could surprise if his head is truly OK. Evan Oberg is high in their estimation and need as an offensive D’man.
Isn’t camp fun?
vancitydan
Evan Oberg is high in their estimation and need as an offensive D’man.
Shh! I was going to do up a post about that :)
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 14, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade Demo to the Rangers for Marc Staal
Sather’s stupid, but not that stupid
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 14, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions
As a long time Canuck fan you can never underestimate this groups ability to snatch defeat from the jaws for victory.
thanks for the shot of eternal optomism/mystisim. I go back to the Jim Robson era oooooold school and sitll nada :)
Yank'...or Roscival?
I was thinking Demo and gabby in NY…think of that for Gabby…gets to play with his best bud again. If we threw in a Raymond or another forward prospect, for a guy that only got 3 goals and 17 points? a -7?
Sather would make that deal.
Or Rosie…who had a better stats package anyhow….Was thinking Staal might be a better deal Cap wise.
vancitydan
I do like
how Burrows was handled last season – on the first line, sure; but also penalty kill, and that’s it! Pudge did just fine on the power play, which upped his ice time from strictly third line numbers; keep speed on the PK with Ray-O’-Light and Great Dane joining Kes and Burrows. Leave off Hodgson until he picks up another year, natch’.
AV rewarded players ice time on a game-by-game basis, which I think produces good results, but also keeps designated roles for players. which encourages those players who don’t have as much 5-on-5 time to stay in the game (penalties happen at any time, after all).
Cody Hodgson
ok help me out here gang this is from the team report in Yahoo “He’ll need it. Hodgson is a sure thing to make the Canucks this season, especially since he’s not old enough to spend a year in the AHL, and has clearly outgrown junior hockey.”
How can Cody not be old enought to spend a year with the Moose but be allow to to play for the Moose in last years playoffs last year? Could he spend yet another year in junior is that an option?
Kelowna…I’ll take this one.
Last year, he could be called up the same as players are in the NHL. After Brampton was done, he could be a call up to the Moose.
But he is 19, and still has junior eligibility. So, he is underage for the AHL until he is 20.
And by then, most Canuck fans think he will have made the big team and more.
vancitydan
Thanks Van good explanation
So the option would be to leave him one more year in jumior. That could hurt his development – it will be a tough call. Nineteen is very young to playing with the big boys.
That’s why it’s good to hear Dave Gagner say that Hodgson is NHL-ready. I hope he’s right.
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 15, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s time to jump on the CoHo express train Zanny. Think of him as little Linden, many good things are coming our way.
(now see I could go apeshit here and say think of Shirokov as Bure and Schroeder as Ronning but that’s just mean. Excuse me while I go back to Belgian ales…mmmm).
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Aug 15, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Fogg and Suds
Yankee, those comparisons are fine for me! I think both those guys have a good shot. As a matter of fact, I think Schroeder will have most fans of other teams wondering how their GM let this guy go by nin a couple years.
Watching him in the WJC…sure, he is small, but he is built like a tank, and hard to knock off the puck.
Now, when I was younger, my friends and I used to hit the F&G and “drink around the world”. There are some fine Euro beers, but those Czechs might be the hidden gem…hope that Belgian is going down nicely.
vancitydan
I’m more of a rum drinker, but what do you guys think of Stella Artois?
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 15, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Ok change of subject
And if the has already been discussed my appologies. What does this group think about Dynamic Duo Burke and Nonas in Toronto? Burke’s ego seems to have gone into orbit since he won a cup with the Ducks.
I suspect – with a bit of glee I will admit – that with these two in charge Toronto will remain in the hockey wilderness for foreseeable future. Burkes seems to be on the verge of becoming a slightly younger version of Glenn Sather.
I disagree. I think Burke has the Leafs heading in the right direction. The Leafs will surprise people this year. Bank on it.
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 15, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Up until the draft i would have agreed with you Zan
What was that realityTV fou trade with Boston about and the deal with the twins just prior to the signing that was tampering. He is losing it and trading way to heavily on his reputation.
Time will tell Zan – one of us is right. I like a healthy debate and respect your opinon. Have you left Belgium? Enjoy your brew.
My brew? What brew?
Burke is blowing a pathetic Leafs franchise that has needed to be in rebuild mode for years now. It’s about time somebody did it. It’s going to take time for him to build exactly what he wants, but if you look at the current roster, he’s building from the goaltending and defence-out and he’s putting the team in better cap position in the process, more or less.
That D corps is among the best in the league now.
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 15, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Ok you have no Brew. My condolances.
i agree Burke blew up a hopeless Leaf team but lets be honest everyone knew that had to happen.
And yes he is rebuilding from the D out – Great.
My point is that his ego is too big to attract a top level management group capable of building an elite team. He likes to drink his bath water. It is all about him. I do not think has the leadership ability to put together a truly top notch management group and then allow them to do their jobs.
Are the leafs going to get better? No doubt about it. Will Burke be able to produce a real contender? I dont think so. In my humble opinion he is yesterday’s man.
And I will disagree with you about the “contender” part.
but lets be honest everyone knew that had to happen.
Yeah, for the past 5-plus years!
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 16, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions
From Yankee's post:
(only Burrows, Anson Carter and Taylor Pyatt can claim success as the third twin)
Isn’t this god damn frustrating? Only Carter had long term success there. We need someone like Burrrows to succeed there and STAY THERE. No more fucking around, to put it bluntly. I’m tired of the rotating door on Line 1.
Quick re-read there, Smob!
Such a shame Carter thought he was better than he actually was. Besides, I loved calling it the “Three Brothers Line” (Hat tip to Mike Brophy)
Comparatively, 1 season with the Twins IS long term considering Pyatt hardly lasted 8 weeks there, and Burrows is still up in the air.
Oh, and Bernier didn’t get too much past the preseason with the Twins.
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 16, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions
1.Innis and Gunn Oak Aged Beer from Edinburgh, Scotland is manna from heaven.
2.As swell a duo as Kesler and Burrows make,(like a younger, stronger, better, faster, cooler, flashier, smoother Maltby and Draper) maybe leave Alex well enough with the Twins.
Crazy beer-lovers! Drink like men!
Rum!!!! Gets you drunk faster and you piss less.
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 16, 2009 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, YOU’VE never had the whiskey shits? C’mon!
by Sean Zandberg on Aug 16, 2009 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Ryper is great
but the kid can’t stay healthy and isn’t exactly a heavyweight, still I agree we don’t need 3 spots taken up by mostly scrappy types, not with the kids waiting in the wings.
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