As The Tree Said To The Lumberjack, I'm Stumped
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 5:02 AM PDT
in Incessant Bitching
39 comments
Mike Gillis hired Laurence Gilman last year as the team's official capologist. He was adamant about playing safe with his money last year (until Sundin bellowed). He didn't budge on accepting new contracts at the trade deadline. He played hard ball with the Sedins down to the final hour before free agency about the length of their respective deals and they caved. He dismissed Gaborik's new contract quickly. Many believe he's going to take Wellwood to the cleaners at arbitration.
He's Mr. Moneyball and falls over himself about stressing leadership and character in players he drafts and keeps core to the team.
...so what the hell happened yesterday?
Start with SOB. By inking a one year deal with a cap hit of $1.6 million, he agreed to a 35% salary increase. This after a season where he twice ended up fighting with management in public and more often than not put his team in a hole due to his infatuation of senseless obstruction calls. This deserves a raise? We should all have such problems.
Then there's Raycroft. Skip the stats, that's too depressing. All you need to know is he signed for the league minimum of $500,000 or, rather, the real life equivalent of making minimum wage cleaning puke out of the Arby's toilet. With Labarbera bolting for Phoenix and maybe Vigneault not wanting Sanford back, Raycroft screams of having no other option but the cheapest. Is the bargin-bin goalie signing one of the ways Luongo inks an extension?
With close to five million dollars left in cap space, Vancouver isn't out of the woods. No one has replaced Ohlund (unless we're looking at Nycholat or Rome). There's no third line center (unless that's Hodgson or Wellwood). Hansen is still in limbo. No announced extension for Luongo (is there even one?). And, looking forward, there's precious little money for any more UFAs, injury insurance or even extensions for Kesler and Mitchell before the next off season.
It suggests Gillis was possibly laughed out of negotiations with the UFA defensemen from the Niedermayers to the Beauchemins. Similarly, maybe up front Samuelsson was all they could do. Gillis may have some irons still in the fire, but it's possible the SOB signing really does signal that the team is going into next season with a weakened defensive unit and Samuelsson is this year's lone offensive addition.
And kiss that whole Sundin repeat concept goodbye.
As it stands now, is this team better than last year? Would this team have beaten Chicago in the second round? Not sure how a weakened defense, a subtle change on offense and an substantially weakened back-up goalie were the missing pieces. All of this and so close to the cap?
Something doesn't pass the smell test.
As was suggested yesterday, it seems to point to a trade coming. Just a hunch, but this doesn't seem like a team that Gillis ready to wipe his hands with and pass off to the coaching staff. And the trade would almost have to include a roster piece so money is leaving the fold before accepting more.
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BTW – ignore guys like Salo and Demitra have NTC’s. If Gillis is so inclined, he has no reason not to ask about waiving them.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
Gillis has stated publicly that he will not ask players to waive NTCs.
by CarolinaCanuck on Jul 7, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
trading luongo wouldn’t probably help much… even if you managed to trade him for great defenseman, it would be quite useless if you have raycroft in the net…
miss u, CR baby...u want 2 get back 2gether?
Well, as long as Luongo and Schneider are around, you can make an argument to move one of them. Schneider is the safer bet, but he’s cheaper. Luongo would in theory bring more back in a trade, but the idea of heading into the season with a rookie and Raycroft? Wow, that’s terrifying.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 5:23 AM PDT up reply actions
you could always sign a free agent goalie in that case though.
Niittymäki is still free agent I think… (joke).
miss u, CR baby...u want 2 get back 2gether?
It’s really a shame losing Labarbera…would have solved a lot of the angst.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Bah! Luongo is NOT getting traded. Not happening. Don’t let it bother you.
by Sean Zandberg on Jul 7, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Leafs need to move Kaberle, does Burke still like Vancouver?
What about SOB and Demitra for Kaberle? Gives the leafs some offense – for a year, if that doesn’t work out, Demitra is off the books in a year. Leafs have the cap room, SOB is a Burke style tough defenseman, Kaberle is more of what the Canucks need.
Would Demitra waive his NTC to go to TO? Maybe if he thought another long term deal was more likely there than here. Just a theory.
Demitra for Kaberle is ripping off the Leafs. They’d need someone else. Kaberle was injured last year, but is still capable of 50+ point seasons and he’s only 31. Demitra is sunsetting and brittle.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
That's why the SOB addition
…But I don’t think he’d bite. Yeah, SOB is young and rugged, but they’ve got that sewn up on the blue line by now. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Kaberle stay in blue and white.
I think Burke has said
He wants a similar package to what he gave up for Pronger a couple years ago… Lupul (established player) Smid (Top Prospect) and a first round pick I believe.
Raycroft is takin a beatin here. I don’t like him, but lookin at the signing to me makes sense.
1. Raycroft has played a ton over the last few years.
2. He was a #1 goalie a few years back.
3. This is his last chance and he knows it.
Takin those factors into account, makes me think he will be a decent backup who will win us some games. I would have liked Lababrera here, but 500,000 for our backup who has LOTS of recent experience and is still relatively young is a great signing by Gillis.
I think that most of the negative comments here will change when he gets in a wins us a few games.
On the flip side, he might be terrible and buried in the minors after a start or two.
I’m bettin on him being a competent backup though.
As for the trade, Wellwood being resigned and pencilled in as #3 centre works fine in my books. Hopefully Hodgson makes the team, and we can slot him in at times also. In my books though, Wellwood can play a solid defensive game, and there is no question whether he can score. As the #3 center, you can’t ask for much more.
Lots of terrible experience!
He’s a taking a beating for good reason. Statistically he’s terrible and has taken a dive since his rookie year. Personally, ask any Leaf or Colorado fan and not only was he not great, but he didn’t give a shit. If that’s the case, then the only reason he’s a Canuck is because we couldn’t pay him any less.
If you had fear with Cloutier, it has to be similar (if not worse) with Raycroft. He’s not capable of carrying this team if Luongo goes down. Any number of other goalies out there right now could.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Why do we need a goalie to carry us if Luongo goes down? That’s what Schneids is here to do should that HORRIBLE possibility happen (that is until we trade him). I think the key message is that if Luongo goes down, we are fucked. No matter who is there. We are fucked. We are a team that needs Luongo, there can be no plan B that we could afford to bring in as a backup goalie. If Luongo goes down, obviously that means Schneids will be brought up and become our number one. That’s the only plan B we could ever afford.
by Beantown Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Benjamin’s thinking is spot-on in my opinion. Schneider will be the back-up in Vancouver this year (at least until the trade-deadline, possibly the whole season).
Schneider had a great season in the AHL this year. He has stated publicly that he doesn’t think there is anything else for him to learn in the minors. He wants to be given a shot in the NHL, either with the Canucks or with another team.
The Canucks, on the other hand, have poured 5 years into developing Schneider, one of their few prospects that show real promise. However, he did not put on a very good display when called-up last season, so his trade-value at the moment is not as high as it could be considering his AHL Goalie of the Year award last season. He needs to get some good starts (in the NHL) under his belt to show other teams that he’s NHL-ready.
Luongo is actually a problem in what Gillis will need to do to get the most out of a Schneider trade. We all know that Luongo is a work-horse and wants to play every game, but Gillis must convince him to sit-out far more games than he’ll be happy with. By the trade-deadline, look for Schneider to have at least 10 starts, and if he sticks around for the whole season, I should imagine that he’ll have 7 or 8 more. This means Luongo may only start 60-65 games this season! The way to convince him is to have him buy-in on the fact that the fresher he is come April, the more capable he will be of going the full four rounds in the playoffs. After all, surely the only games that actually matter are the (potentially) 28 games of the post-season!
I’m not sure that I agree that Raycroff & Schneider will be bouncing back and forth between the NHL and AHL all season, as I think that it may be most valuable for Luongo to be Schneider’s full-time mentor in the NHL. It would probably be nice for Schneider to get a few more than 20 starts in the 2009/2010 season, so perhaps this will happen a few times if there is a particularly long gap in scheduled NHL starts for the kid.
In this way we will have discovered Schneider’s true NHL value by the end of the season. Being the AHL Goalie of the Year, I’m fairly confident that he’ll show himself to be capable enough at the NHL level. So, by the end of the season, we’ll either have Luongo signed to an extension with Schneider as good trade-bait, or Luongo will walk and Schneider will be ready to take a little more responsibility with the Canucks for the 2010/2011 season.
by CarolinaCanuck on Jul 7, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Is there anybody better at clearing waivers? That’s the special skill Raycroft brings to the table this year.
Niiiice.
But his point is well taken and basically what I thought yesterday. Schneider is going to get some genuine ice time this year just to market the guy. It’s just so risky with Luongo’s groin. One Byfuglien crash to the crease and everything changes.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
So, by the end of the season, we’ll either have Luongo signed to an extension with Schneider as good trade-bait, or Luongo will walk and Schneider will be ready to take a little more responsibility with the Canucks for the 2010/2011 season.
And that’s the bottom line.
by Sean Zandberg on Jul 7, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Lordy, Lodry
I do hope Luongo doesn’t walk! At the very least, he’s swapped for big help at the deadline! Way to big an asset to ignore.
No. You see, Luongo would be an asset in a final playoff run in the possible final year with the Canucks. Now, if we’re 12 points out of a playoff spot by the deadline that’s another thing.
Even then…Luongo wants to be traded to a team that is a contender.
by Sean Zandberg on Jul 7, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t have any problems with our offense right now. We basically have the same group of players minus an under-performing Sundin but plus Saumuleson, Hodgson, Grabner, etc.
The problem is with defense (we still need at least one more SOLID defenseman).
A backup goalie would be nice, but I have to agree with Beantown Canuck in that if we get into a situation where we need a backup goalie, we’re already fucked. Luongo is hands down the best player on our team (though I think we’ve done a lot over the last two seasons to help change our reputation as a team that relies too heavily on stellar goaltending),
Bring me Stanley. Alive if possible, dead... just as good.
by King Luongshanks on Jul 7, 2009 11:45 AM PDT reply actions
I think Raycroff is AHL-bound (to take Schneider’s place). Schneider will be Luongo’s back-up and will get close to 20 starts in the 2009/2010 season. I’ve detailed the reasons that I think this will be the case above, but essentially it comes down to the need of getting every penny out of a Schneider trade after pouring 5 years into developing the kid. And in-spite of the fact that Schneider was the AHL Goalie of the Year, he did not have a particularly good NHL experience last year during Luongo’s recovery. This depresses his trade-value.
The guy that I think would be the best option for trade is Grabner. There simply isn’t room for him with the Canucks. He’s a sniper and so playing him on the 3rd or 4th line is a complete waste of his skill. Grabner would be a great prospect to trade to a team that has a deep defensive core and need for a guy who can put the puck in the net up-front.
Raymond might also be a good player to use to shore-up the defense through trade, but I’m going with Grabner as the guy that doesn’t really fit with the Canucks plans over the next few seasons and who will bring the best value back through trade (even if we only see Grabner traded for a good defensive prospect to make up for the loss of Bourdon).
So my guess: Raycroff to the AHL, Schneider as Luongo’s back-up with at least 10 starts by the trade-deadline, and Grabner traded for a good defensive prospect (someone ready to compete for a 5/6 spot in the NHL). Then at the trade deadline (supposing Luongo has signed an extension), Schneider is traded for a top-4 puck-moving defenseman who’s under contract for at least one more season.
Bouncing Schneider up and down makes sense cap-wise though. Raycroft costs only 500grand, schneider costs I think 1 mill. So having Raycroft sit there to soak up 500 grand most of the season, while schneids just pops up for say 20 games, means the nucks can save 300 to 400 grand of cap space on the season. That may make a difference, the team is tight this year. Having a little bit of cap space available matters a lot when it comes to being able to bring replacements up and down from minors in case of injury issues, etc. Look how fucked Calgary was at the end of last season.
by Beantown Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
As Smoboy41 said, that is true only if Raycroff doesn’t get claimed off of waivers. If he is snatched-up then he must be replaced and $250K (or whatever remains of half of Raycroff’s contract) will go against the cap, which is not something that you can just bury in the minors again. I doubt it’s worth the effort to save $300K while risking the loss of $250K.
by CarolinaCanuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps I should clarify that I think Schneider will be part of a deal to acquire a top-4 defenseman at the deadline and that this deal may also include higher-round draft picks switching hands to balance things out.
by CarolinaCanuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I do like your theories, CC, but do you think Raycroft signed up just to spend the majority of the season in Winnipeg? Unless Gillis told him straight-up he’s going to the AHL, I expect he assumes he’s going to be with the Canucks all year.
I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.
It’s a good point about Raycroft being willing to sign-up for an AHL job. Considering that he did sign a one-year contract for $500K, I don’t see how he can be expecting much. He’s won 14 games altogether in the past two seasons. I’m sure that Gillis told him that he’s competing with Schneider for the back-up job, but I suspect that the deck is stacked in Schneider’s favour (which Raycroft must know, even if he hasn’t been specifically told so).
by CarolinaCanuck on Jul 7, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Other Canucks to Trade:
Ryan Walter and Fin the Whale, hopefully to the Leafs for Kaberle.
Hit the phones, Gilman!
No! Not fin! We can trade that stupid whale balloon thing that floats around GM place dropping vouchers for terrible CDs, though.
by Beantown Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that whale ballon is full of Sarin gas in case another Bertuzzi or McSorley incident occurs.
Tom Larscheid: “You hate to see a thing like that happen to these loyal Canucks fans, Shorty.”
Shorthouse: “Right you are, Tom.”
Time to retire Fin and just get Bertuzzi as the new mascot.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Jul 7, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
The Province headline, sometime in the winter of 2010:
“Canucks Mascot ‘Huggy Bert’ found slain in Gastown dumpster,
mystery ’Z was here” found carved in corpse."
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