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the joys of predatory offer sheets

ok, everyone seems to be taking a deep breath after a rollicking first couple days.  the big headlines are behind us and the signings will get smaller and more niche from here.  so what are gillis' options from this point to improve the team?  one thing i think he will try again is taking a run at an RFA or 2.  he tried it last year with david backes (would have been a great move if it worked) and given the lack of high quality canucks RFAs i don't think retaliatory offers are going to be much of a deterrent.  so who's available and/or likely?  well i'll tell you who i'd like him to go for.

Star-divide

first, i think if you're going to make a predatory offer for a restricted free agent i think you should really choose your targets well.  pick players that will make a difference, are worth the pick(s) you'll give up and would come from teams who would have difficulty matching your salary.  there are 2 aspects to RFA offers: they are a poker showdown, and they are potentially sabotage.  in the first aspect the predatory gm has to weigh the value of the player and the compensation that entails when making the offer, as well as guessing at the math the opposing gm goes through when weighing the choice to match the offer or take the compensation and walk away.  that is an interesting financial, scouting and psychological puzzle.  the second aspect comes into effect if the opposing gm is forced to match a predatory offer that can screw his team's salary structure and make life for that gm very difficult in subsequent years, potentially crippling that franchise.  i'll get back to that aspect later.

second, the holes in vancouver's roster are a) a big body forward, perferrably with good hands, and b) a defenseman with some wheels.  (yeah, both those kinds of players grow on trees, should be easy to find, right?)

that said, the RFA that interests me is cam barker.  barker is a good young dman, a good skater with a fairly poor shot who has the potential to be a very good dman.  i'm not sure who he knocks out of the top 2 pairs on the canucks but i'm willing to let training camp decide that, at least until salo gets injured then it's a moot point. 

the beauty of going after barker is that he plays for chicago who currently have 17 players under contract leaving less than 9M under the cap to spend on 6 RFAs and whatever else.  more importantly, they have a tsunami of players coming up for contract next year - kane, toews, ladd and keith will be commanding big big bucks.  this is where sabotage comes into play.  forcing another elite team in the conference to spend more than they want to this year can have a knock on effect into next year and make dale tallon's life miserable as he tries to carve out enough cap room for his young studs when the cap itself is collapsing like the trash compactor on the death star.

so, am i crazy?  dreaming?  targeting the wrong guy?

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Does anyone know about our issues with having already given up our 2nd round pick for Bernier? Some people have said that this makes us unable to sign an rfa that requires that as compensation. Anyone know if that’s true?

by Beantown Canuck on Jul 5, 2009 1:40 PM PDT reply actions  

it is true

that a team cannot make an offer which would require compensation they do not have. a second round pick is the compensation for offers worth roughly 1.3M-2.6M per year.

by bitterguy on Jul 5, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well stabbing at RFA’s doesn’t make you any friends that’s for sure. And the team being screwed can always stab back. It’s risky business.

by Sean Zandberg on Jul 5, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions  

which vancouver rfa would you not give up

to get cam barker? we have wellwood, hansen, obrien and mciver this year, and i don’t think any of them are worth as much as a top 4 dman and 3rd overall pick. that’s the beauty of it this year, there’s no need to fear retaliation.

by bitterguy on Jul 5, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Welly’s not an option now, because he chose arbitration. And he was the only one that I would stick my neck out to keep over compensation. So I agree, nothing to worry about except future grudges. But like you said, our lack of 2nd rnd pick seriously hampers our ability to make offers. Unless we offer 3-4 mill or so to Barker, in which case we have to think if he’s really worth a 1st round pick?

by Beantown Canuck on Jul 5, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

i'd give up a first for him.

i think barker is worth 4M/yr, which is pretty much what we’re paying mitchell, salo, edler and bieksa. plus, the canucks don’t get to pick 3rd overall very often, so it would be like trading up from 20+ to 3 to get him, and you already know how good he is. chicago would have a tough time matching but i bet they would for 4M, and then maybe that screws them next year. win/win.

by bitterguy on Jul 6, 2009 12:18 AM PDT reply actions  

Cam Barker & Kris Vertag

I like the way ya think buddy…improvement from building adversity from a team that kicked your ass in the playoffs! Perfect!

by ccrider2 on Jul 6, 2009 7:57 PM PDT reply actions  

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