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Should Vancouver Trade Their #1 Pick?

I think most fans treat their team like an adopted child in a way. You care about it, want to see it do well, scold it when it's bad and hope to see it grow up and become a millionaire so you can go retire on a private island with a margarita in one hand and yourself in the other (Thank you Al Bundy).

So while I recognize the Cup can make its appearance tonight and Detroit can dance their happy dance yet again, I don't really care. I care about what the hell Mike Gillis is going to do in Montreal in about two weeks and when free agency starts in almost exactly three.

In past offseasons, I put together a little chart that shows where the holes are on the team. This morning I updated the chart for the first time since last July:

Canucks09roster_june9_medium

Did you shit yourself a little? Good. So did I.

Star-divide

I don't mean a full blown, Islanders-level panic deuce. I mean you can see where the weaknesses are pretty easily. A few things:

1. The center position has gone from its usual questionable role to completely scarce. You can slide Kesler back to center and even Demitra for that matter. And yeah I know Hodgson is waiting in the ranks but let's be serious before we chuck the kid in there as a first or second line center.

2. The defense is messy. Even if the Bouwmeester concept turns into a reality, you're still missing three guys and your best chances at stuffing the bottom four (O'Brien, McIver and even Fitzgerald) are all RFA's.

3. Isn't it great that Jaffray is kicking ass down in Manitoba? Isn't it sad he's a free agent too?

4. I still think the Sedins will sign here, but what if they don't? How do you rebuild the first and second lines that can hang with the rest of the Northwest, to speak nothing of the entire Western conference?

This lead to me thinking about moving the 22nd pick. Granted you have to find a dance partner (or two: see Cammalleri's trade at the draft last year) but what if Gillis can land a proven roster player now at the expense of a potential one down the line? You see the holes we're looking at. Sure maybe you fill one of two in the first week of free agency, a couple more before training camp and then let the kids fill in the gaps from there. But if Gillis could land a Cammalleri-caliber player, wouldn't that beat picking another Nathan Smith or Patrick White?

Still, it's a tough bet to trade the first rounder, especially when the Vancouver farm system is as promising as the fat chick at the end of the bar winking at you as they announce last call. You have Hodgson, Grabner, Schneider sure, but it's slim pickenings from there on out (check out Hockey's Future's #1 negative about the Canucks prospects).

It's tougher still when you consider that if Vancouver moves their first rounder, and assuming then don't get a higher second rounder in return, they won't actually stroll up to the mic until the 53rd pick. After that would be 83rd and then 113th. So Vancouver moving their #1 pick is akin to pretty much throwing out this year's draft and/or hoping for a Pavel Bure-esque dark horse coming out in the later rounds (an aside - Bure was picked 113th overall back in 1989, so 20 years later and with the same pick, do you believe in miracles?).

Gillis has some large holes to fill, a franchise on pins and needles in respect to three players (the Sedins and Luongo's contract) and about $23 million in cap coin to spend, resign and keep as insurance for the inevitable rainy day. He can't simply resign the Sedins, add another veteran like Demitra and expect his team to be any better. To fill some of larger gaps in the roster - and to keep people coming into a now larger GM Place at higher prices - he'll need to make a definitive impact somewhere this summer, be it with his first round pick or with his wallet.

The one thing I do love about Gillis is that he's willing to be unorthodox or atleast he was in his first honeymoon year. But will it continue? Unless he's eyeing a top ten pick in the 2010 draft, I don't see how it can't.

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The chart is awesome! Unfortunately the roster has more holes in it than Sonny Corleone.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions  

Dany Heatley

wants out of Ottawa……..

"Life is just a place where we spend time between games. Hockey is where we live, where we can best meet and overcome pain and wrong and death." - Fred Shero

by Karina on Jun 9, 2009 11:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah I just saw that. And the poor Sens fans since he’s not their problem.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m torn on your idea. It’s so important to draft properly nowadays that giving up the first pick seems ludicrous. At the same time, I hear ya on the amount of holes on the roster. I’d guess Gillis does not shop the 22nd pick as he has put more $$$ in the scouting dept. I think he’s looking at signing the Twins and adding Grabner and Hodgson, plus a couple of UFA’s to fill in the remaining holes. Just my guess.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 11:10 AM PDT reply actions  

I think your “Twins for $$$ + Grabner/Hodgson” makes the most sense for next year.
Heatley with the Twins? (rests head on hands, looks skyward, daydreams, deep sigh)

by Sneps-ish on Jun 9, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m cool with icing a less stellar defense if that money is used on some strong offensive upgrades (Heatley would fall in there in theory but I’d have to sniff at him a bit more. sniff sniff)

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

With no teeth, he’d look fine next to Pudge.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

haha, imagine HEatley playing with the Twins. Holy hell. It would be like Anson Carter on crack.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think your assumption is the safe bet. But what do safe bets get us (and isn’t safe betting what made Nonis unemployed?). What if Hodgson isn’t ready or Grabner (as you’ve said by watching the Moose) still needs to work on his defensive game? And what if Gillis waits until the first ten days of free agency are over and swoops in to pick up scraps to fill out the third and fourth lines? I guess these aren’t really answers to me nor do they show a willingness to win now, which I’m sure if something Luongo is hoping to see.

My hunch is Gillis has to swing for the fences on something (resigning the Sedins doesn’t count) and moving the first rounder may be the safer of the options on the table, assuming that is he can find someone who really wants that pick.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t think Gillis believes in the safe bet. He’ll plan for Hodgson and Grabner but also bring in help.
He is the kind of GM I could see making a big move for Heatley, without mortgaging the Canucks future (ie. giving up Hodgson).

"Life is just a place where we spend time between games. Hockey is where we live, where we can best meet and overcome pain and wrong and death." - Fred Shero

by Karina on Jun 9, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

What made Nonis unemployed

Crappy ownership made Nonis unemployed….

Great trades and smart decisions had no baring on ownership’s decision.

Resign the Sedins and add Bouwmeester. Along with the call ups of Grabner and Hodgson our team will be solid.

by T.Haynes on Jun 9, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Resign the Sedins and add Bouwmeester. Along with the call ups of Grabner and Hodgson our team will be solid.

I almost agree, except we still need the #2 line fixed up. That’s not a spot for Hodgson or Wellwood.

Nonis couldn’t deliver the big marquee guy.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Or what Zanny said below: unable to deliver the marquee guy. Which, if that’s true, is all the more absurd considering he fleeced Florida for Luongo.

And maybe it’s just me, but relying on Grabner and Hodgson (and all zero combined NHL games between them) as half the solution this offseason seems far fetched. Adding Bouwmeester is fine as long as it doesn’t turn into an insane bidding war or some sort of 10 year contract that we can’t get rid of three years in.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, unfortunately that is what it’s going to turn into.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cap space and the draft.

I think the Nucks will move a D rather than mess with the draft. Bieska has had plenty of interest around the league, and despite a drop in productivity due to injury he could make a new home in a lot of different rinks in this league.

This would alleviate some cap space, bring about some needed competition in that position (even should they sign Boumeester) and give them flexibility at the draft to go after whatever they deem to be the most pressing issue.

On an unrelated note, I think Luongo will be out of Van in 3 – 5 yrs if things don’t get righted on this ship. So maybe that year a great draft will be available??

by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jun 9, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions  

Swap Bieksa for Salo and I agree. The only strengths this team has is on defense and in net and no way he’s moving Schneider unless Luongo’s willingness to sign an extension makes that possible.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Four Pairs of Defence and No Extra Forward

I like the idea of the chart but I think normally teams have 3 healthy scratches ( some only have 2, making theirs a 22-man roster), and typically only one extra D and two extra F.

by SJKel on Jun 9, 2009 1:10 PM PDT reply actions  

To clarify, I meant one D and two Fs among the 3 healthy scratches. The chart shows 2 D healthy scratches and no F healthy scratch.

by SJKel on Jun 9, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions  

No that’s a good point though I more of less used it as an idea of the ideal line up. If you check when I ran it last year I did have the healthy scratch forward noted in Cowan at the time.

I adjust it as needed, but the reason for the ????’s is to show the holes from pending UFAs/RFAs and retirements.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

argh…more OR less…

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 9, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think its time for Plan B on defense………..STEVEN SEAGAL!

Sorry, couldn’t resist. Those holes on O and D depress me right now.

My prediction for Game 6:

Red Wings lose in a close one. Hopefully.

by Sneps-ish on Jun 9, 2009 2:11 PM PDT reply actions  

hold up, I’ll put up an open thread here soon :)

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is anyone interested in Niedermayer? Imagine a defensive pairing of Mitchell and Niedermayer. It all depends on how close the team is to a cup. If you think the team is really close and needs maybe one more piece, Niedermayer may be the best man for that role. If you think the team has a bright future and should look ahead to that, go for Bouwmeester.

While the rides on the Pain Train and Brock Mansion Party Yacht have been fun, I think its time I hop on the BakBakcycle.

by rollonubears on Jun 9, 2009 3:00 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m very interested in Niedermayer, even if it is for just one year. He would make everybody better.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Gillis won’t trade the pick, and I would expect him to keep all picks for the next few years. After his cupboard is bare speech, he will stock it again.
And I expect him to make a splash and right quick after July 1st.

Fingers crossed for Gaborik :)

by Nuckels on Jun 9, 2009 4:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed on everything except the Gaborik part :)
Have a thing for glass players, Nuckels?

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 9, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

He’s a risk for sure. But if he could be had on a 3 year incentive laden deal, don’t you do it? He’s one of a few players with 50 goal potential in the league. He’s had bad luck, and I think playin in Minny hasnt made him really love the league. He will rebound and someone will look smart.

by Nuckels on Jun 9, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

The surgery may well have been successful, who knows? He’s awesome when he plays. Magical caveat, of course…

by Thursday on Jun 9, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would NEVER take a chance on Gaborik..ever.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 10, 2009 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, Thanks.

We really do need help on the farm.

Next year’s draft is getting a lot of grief, and there’s two ways to play it: either trade them away for help, or exploit the current talk and start gathering them for cheap and cross your fingers for sprouts coming up three or four years down the road.

by Thursday on Jun 9, 2009 7:47 PM PDT reply actions  

With our history of drafting, I think it’s a fair question. I agree it likely won’t happen, but I sure wouldn’t mind it if Gillis can bring a proven player in.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Jun 10, 2009 4:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the Canucks really are not in the position to flog picks. Where did all the defencemen go? I see nothing in Manitoba. You have to draft properly to be successful in the cap era NHL.

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 10, 2009 12:16 AM PDT reply actions  

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Canucks Stats

Stat

Forwards

Defense

Points

H. Sedin (52)

Edler (34)

Goals

D. Sedin (20)

Edler (7)

Assists

H. Sedin (41)

Edler (27)

Shots

D. Sedin (159)

Edler (131)

Hits

Lapierre (136)

Edler (97)

Blocked Shots

Kesler (38)

Edler (72)

ES TOI/G

H. Sedin (14.45)

Bieksa (17.75)

PP TOI/G

D. Sedin (3.56)

Edler (3.60)

PK TOI/G

Malhotra (2.63)

Hamhuis (3.08)

Corsi Rel QoC

Burrows (0.975)

Bieksa (0.951)

Zone Starts (OPCT)

D. Sedin (80%)
Malhotra (13%)

Edler (58%)
Tanev (36%)

Updated: January 22


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