Canucks Potential Cap Crunch Dilemna

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 21, 2009 9:30 PM PDT Comment 41 comments

I'm no salary cap guru by any stretch, but it doesn't take one to realize that Mike Gillis may have to spend right up to the cap limit come July 1st. I'll stress my opinion again that I believe that the Sedins should be re-signed. So let's say Gillis does get them locked within the next 9 days or so, and let's project that they don't get their 12 year deal but rather 7-8 years. That would put their annual cap hit closer to $6 million each.

Now add that combined $12 million hit to their approximate $34 million current cap expenditure and they are at $46 million with 10 forwards, 4 defencemen and 1 goalie signed and sealed. (Reference: NHL Numbers). $10 million under the allowable spending. That would mean that Gillis is going to have tough decisions to make in a very short period of time if he wants to ice a better team than last year.

I think it's fair to say that if the Sedins do sign at the aforementioned pricetag, it becomes glaringly obvious that we can narrow down players rumored to sign here, or the potentials. A Cammalleri AND Bouwmeester can not be acquired unless one of them takes a huge cut, or one or both sign a longterm deal of the Sedin variety to give Gillis more flexibility on a yearly average cap hit.

What are the chances of that happening? With Bouwmeester it is possible because of how it was rumored that Gillis was trying to acquire him at the trade deadline months back. He wouldn't sign that kind of player to a short term deal. But even so, he'd still have limited money for another bonafide forward as, on top of it all, there would be 1 top 6 and 1 bottom 6 vacant position to fill there.

I'm torn on the matter. I know the Canucks could use a go-to defenceman like Bouwmeester or Niedermayer. But at the expense of potentially becoming a lower - scoring team? Ergh. How about NOT. I think Mikey should spend the money on the forwards. I still think that Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo and Alex Edler, with their $3.5 million-ish salaries should do that job.

What do you think?

I also think that if the Sedins do sign there is no way in hell Mats Sundin returns (just in case there's any of you out there who care about what the big Swede does).

This is going to be a crazy 9-10 days. Fasten your seatbelts. We're heading for the crossroads.

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Something you forgot to mention…depending upon how much is left, they are going to want to re-sign Kesler to a longer term deal and that could cost some dough the NEXT season…then what?

Right…Sedins. Boring – absolutely. Productive – no doubt. Sign ‘em The Doublemint boyz are looking for security, just like most Swede’s do. Hell, maybe Gillis will pull one of those ABA contracts out and sign the boyz to 50 years…sort of like the HK handover document.

Signing the Coors Lite Twins, enables Gillis to go after Louie to a longer term deal (“See how serious we are??”)…and then make his move on Kesler (be ready to be low-balled Ryan for that crack about home town discounts).

What I see as important in all of this are the 3rd line guys. What about Chubby? Balls? Pyatt?? They were quick to tie up Bernier…but why the silence on these important cogs to the team. For me, its always about these guys. Hell, who was THE MAN in game 7 this year? Yep…Maxime Talbot. It’s about role players.

And then…what about the children; Hodgson & Grabner? Personally…leave Cody in Winnipeg for some good ole seasoning…give Grabner a shot at grabbing that last forward slot (look out Hansen!)

by GZ Expat on Jun 21, 2009 9:44 PM PDT reply actions

“be ready to be low-balled Ryan for that crack about home town discounts”

and the offer sheet. you owe us some blang, kesler!

by passive_voice on Jun 22, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, good points. I was just focusing on the coming season but the Kesler extension will be mandatory (and a potential pain in the ass next summer if he doesn’t go for a discount).
It’s amazing how nothing is said about Wellwood yet. He is an RFA though, I believe. So his value may or not be determined if another team throws an offer sheet his way.
It’s a domino effect. Once the Sedins are signed the rest will very quickly fall into place.
Pyatt is gone I think. Not even an option.
I like the idea of a Wellwood-Bernier-Grabner line. And where does that leave RFA Hansen? Manitoba or elsewhere.

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 21, 2009 9:51 PM PDT reply actions

I’m going to have to second the domino effect. Nothing else can be done until you have the Sedins locked up, because they affect your entire pay structure.

by rsm on Jun 22, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions

Even if the Sedins signs,

It would surprise me if the cap hit is actually $6M, because as reports go Gillis is reluctant to pay them $6M in salaries past the age of 35, so the cap hit should be less if the deal ends up 7-8 years. Furthermore, when next summer comes, Demitra’s deal ends and the $4M is freed up. Mitchell’s deal also expires and the $3.5M is freed up as well. Ryan Johnson’s $1.15M as well. If the cap actually goes down next summer, Luongo may also have trouble getting the same $6.75M per year deal he currently has. I actually worry more about this summer than the next, and the team has already paid the price by letting Ohlund go (because Edler needed a raise).

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 11:08 AM PDT reply actions

Ok, so project your estimated cap structure for them and let me know the value. I’m curious.
Do you think Gillis will bite on the 12 years?

I can’t wait until Demitra’s deal expires. I never liked that signing. Alot of that (if Lou stays) will go to Kesler though.

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 22, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

I didn't like it either...

at least it was only two years!

by T.Haynes on Jun 22, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m thinking something like 6-6-6-6-6-6-3-1, $40M for 8 years = $5M a year average.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

The Sedins will be earning (and are worth) considerably more than 6M next season. Don’t kid yourself! If the length of the contract is 8 years, their average salary will be 6M. The Sedins will be making between 7M and 8M next season (I predict closer to 8M).

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Even if they’ll be making 8M next season, but for how long are you willing to pay them $8M? Two seasons? Three?. How about this (average $7.5M until they’re 33 years old)?

8-8-7-7-6-6-3-1, which is still below $6M average.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

That’s probably closer the mark. But remember that the leak from the Sedins’ camp was 63M over 12 years.

8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 6M – 6M – 5M – 5M – 3M – 3M – 2M – 1M

is one possible way of getting you there. If you want to drop that to 8 years, then you’re working with

8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 6M – 6M – 5M – 5M

which means that an 8-year contract will be close to 54M for a cap-hit of 6.75M. You can tempt them to a lower cap-hit by giving them more up-front

10M – 10M – 7M – 7M – 5M – 4M – 3M – 2M

(48M over 8 years for a 6M cap-hit) or by signing them to a longer contract (see the 12-year deal above).

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

The report from Gallagher, who is known to be the GM’s friend says that the GM is unwilling to pay them $6M at age of 35. I doubt that it means he’s fine with $5M at the age of 35 year. I also doubt that he’s wiling to give them $10M in the first two years, significantly more than superstars like Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, not to mention Zetterberg, whom their agent used as a comparable (but better than either twin). I think the max one year salary will be something like 7 or 7.5, and it will quickly fall once they’re past the age of 3.

7.5M-7.5M-7M-6.5M-6M-5M-3M-1.5M (44M over 8 years, 5.5M per) is my final guess. I don’t think the twins get closer to what they want (5.25M over 12 years) than Gillis does (5.5M over 5 years)

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

it will quickly fall once they’re past the age of 3
Of course it’s the age of 3, but 33.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I don’t know that I blame Gillis for being unwilling to pay them 6M at 35.

As to the numbers that I threw up, they are only intended to be illustrative. But I would say that it’s pretty hard to get to 63M over 12 years without paying the Sedins pretty close to 6M in their 6th year.

If Gillis is set on this, then I don’t think the deal can get done — not at 12 years, at least. His only choice will be by going longer (see 20 year contract below) or by doing a 5-year or shorter contract (but the cap-hit will be prohibitive in this case)

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions

. But I would say that it’s pretty hard to get to 63M over 12 years without paying the Sedins pretty close to 6M in their 6th year.

That would simply mean the Sedns don’t get to $63M over 12 years. I think the deal can be done at the price I suggested. I think the report in the media is simply a snapshot of the negotiation, which is a process and two sides will throw out offers multiple times. I highly doubt that the Sedins are dead set on receiving $63M. You’re assuming that both sides are firm with the reports and I think that’s not the case. Both sides still have room to negotiate but it’s a slow news day so the media has to write about it.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions

If the term is 12 years, then they will get close to 63M. Even if it’s 57M over 12, here’s what you might be looking at:

8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 5M – 5M – 5M – 4M – 2M – 2M – 1M – 1M

So 5M in the 6th year: is paying 5M to a Sedin for one season at 35 a good deal? How do you decrease that? How about this:

8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 7M – 4M – 4M – 4M – 2M – 2M – 1M – 1M

But then, is paying 7M to a Sedin at 34 a good deal? Try yourself. Supposing that there is a 12-year deal, I think you’ll get yourself stuck somewhere (or you’ll create a contract that the Sedins will not sign). This means that the contract will either be shorter (4-5 years with a large cap-hit) or longer (20 years?).

The more I play with the numbers, the more I suspect that the Sedins will not be back.

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Why are you so fixated on the rumour?

First of all, this 12-year $63M proposal could be completely fabricated. We have no idea how solid the Swedish source is. Second, even if it is true, it could very well be a test-the-water offer that one throws out in a negotiation process. I seriously doubt that the $63M figure is anywhere close to the Sedin’s bottom line. I think they want to receive ideally $50M in the next contract, but would end up receiving somewhere between $40M to $45M for 8 years. I think they want to go back and I truly believe they will be come. We don’t have to wait long anyway, because if they sign, they’ll be signed before July 1st.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions

There’s nothing else to be fixated on, and we have just one week until free-agency! lol

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 23, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions

One more thing about the leak

It’s NOT 63M over 12 years. It’s 53M over 12 years. The 63M is Zetterberg’s contract, and they’re asking for 10M less.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I am wrong

Zetterberg’s is $73M over 12. The $63M over 12 is correct. Sorry.

by SJKel on Jun 22, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

This deal can't be for 7-8 years

The 12 year deal is esentially a 7-8 year deal with 4 years of 1 million on the end to give cap relief. The Sedins would be gone after 7-8 years in the 12 year deal deal, so if Gillis did sign them to 8 year deals I would be choked as it just doesn’t make sense!

I expect it to be a long term deal (12 years) or a 4 or 5 year deal.

You have to let Wellwood go. He was good, but I’m pretty sure 2 million dollars for him is about two times too much, and he is definitely not blocking a young guy. Let our four centres be Hodgson, Henrik, Kesler, and Johnson.

by T.Haynes on Jun 22, 2009 12:39 PM PDT reply actions

I think our offense is improved if...

Daniel, Henrik, Burrows, Kesler, Demitra, Raymond, Grabner, Hodgson, and Bernier are our top 9 forwards in this scenario.

Then hopefully we can add Bouwmeester.

by T.Haynes on Jun 22, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

well then I sure as hell hope they find chemistry for Demitra and Kesler. Sundin fit in so well there.

Nucks Misconduct

by Sean Zandberg on Jun 22, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Why stop at 12 years?

I like Dave Pratt’s idea (scary, eh?). The Sedins won’t play 12 more seasons; and there is talk that they might even want to head back to Sweden in the next 5 years. So do the following: 60M over 20 years for a cap hit of 3M per season structured something like

8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 8M – 3M – 3M – 2M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M – 1M

They have a NTC for the first 5 years. After that time, they can take their 40M and run, the Canucks could keep them a few more years, or they could be dealt to another team (and for a cap-hit of 3M, no one’s going to think twice about it if the Sedins are still productive enough that they want to play in the league).

You’ve gotta know that this loophole in the CBA will be closed pretty damn quick, so I say that Gillis should take advantage of it while he can! Just think: the Sedin’s cap-hit next season could actually be lower than it was this season! Does Gillis have the balls to try it? No-nuts wouldn’t have, so just maybe…

Extend Luongo on a similar deal and the only reason that we can’t have Niedermayer, Bouwmeester and Camallari is if Aquilini is not willing to pay for Gillis to take advantage of this loophole. (back to my padded room)

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions

I like this idea too... but...

I hate how you give Pratt credit for this idea. Basicly common knowledge. (Although I have to say that the majority of Canuck fans are mighty slow on the uptake!!)

by T.Haynes on Jun 22, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions

I first heard it early last week on the Pratt & Taylor show. I suppose I don’t know that it was originally his idea — he has been known to, uh, fail to credit sources:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2008/06/04/bc-sports-columnist-fired.html

Unfortunately, I don’t hear much talk out of Vancouver from here in North Carolina, so if others were speculating about this sort of thing before Pratt got hold of it, I wouldn’t know…

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions

no, it’s not that he necessarily “took” the idea, it’s just that it makes sense to extend it as far as the CBA will let us go. why not a 500-year contract with the final 494 years at the league minimum?

by passive_voice on Jun 22, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions

No one lives (or plays) that long. Chris Chelios is 47: someone playing hockey into their late 40s is not impossible. This is why 20 years might pass and 500 years certainly would not.

by CarolinaCanuck on Jun 22, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions

The cap seems to be structured to really prevent more than one or two big contracts. We will have 3 when (I am presuming it is going to happen) the Sedins sign.