Know Your Enemy: The St. Louis Offense
by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 1:00 PM PDT
in NHL Playoffs
25 comments
One day left and one section left to examine.
We've seen the blueline and the netminders (and you're insane if you think I'm going to bother comparing the coaches) so let's hit up the offensive ranks:
St. Louis Offensive Pairings (based on EV stats from the last three games)
Brad Boyes - David Backes - Andy McDonald
David Perron - T.J. Oshie - Patrik Berglund
Brad Winchester - Jay McClement - Keith Tkachuk
B.J. Crombeen - Dan Hinote - Alex Steen
I've been using Frozenpool.com to help compile a bunch of these stats and they have different lines for the Blues then I have found elsewhere on the interwebs, especially having Steen and Winchester change slots with each other. Also I know Backes has moved to center even though he's listed everywhere else as a winger.
So I did my best but these may be slightly off. If so just sound off in the comments and I'll adjust.
Let's take a closer look:
The #1 line of the Blues has old RFA friend Backes alongside Boyes and the glandular McDonald. You've got two 30 goal scorers in Boyes (33) and Backes (31) and McDonald's 44 points is admirable considering he missed damn near half the season. Boyes lead the Blues with 16 PPGs and was tied for the team lead in PPAs (19). Boyes and Backes are also having career years in terms of points and Backes leads the team in PIMs. All three are 2-1-3 against Vancouver this year, making this a pretty damn potent line at both even strength and on special teams. Curiously, note the +/- of these three as well.
Here's their "Kid Line" (sorry, I'm not calling them OPP because that's just sad). Alongside their outstanding rookie Berglund is Oshie, who had his fan-nominated goal of the year against Luongo last month, and Perron who is the third highest point getter on the team (50). Naturally rookies Berglund and Oshie are having career years and Perron is as well in his sophmore campaign. Against Vancouver this season, Oshie is 2-3-5, Perron is 1-2-3 and Berglund leads all Blues players at 1-5-6. In our last meeting this line tore Vancouver apart. They were quicker, hungrier and just flat out better (two of them made the three stars for that game alone). They won't have their way like that again starting tomorrow, but they're huge threats anytime they jump over the boards.
As stated earlier, I may have Winchester on the wrong line here but whatever. Hinote is no stranger since you should hate him already from his Colorado days; good forechecker and agitator. Tkachuk has a decent season, but a far cry from his pre-lockout domination days with STL and Phoenix. Still a big body that'll be tough to move around. Winchester was part of the 2006 Edmonton run at the Cup but was mostly scratched that post season. I do remember watching Winchester in an game this year and he's got a cannon of a shot (though not an accurate one). Winchester is having a career year as well. Against Vancouver this year Tkachuk is 1-3-4 whereas Hinote and Winchester are both scoreless. Again, note the +/- for each.
Like a lot of fourth lines, you have some big guys here (I can see where Winchester's 6'5'' frame belongs down on this line) but unlike a lot of fourth lines, they can score too (compare McClement's 12 goals with Ryan Johnson's two). Crombeen is your typical fourth line energy guy, McClement is a good two way forward (though not a terribly physical one) and Steen, cast away from Toronto in that November deal, can produce some timely offense to compliment McClement. I suppose we should also mention Cam Janssen and his 131 PIMs could end up down here at some point if Murray thinks he needs more brawn and anger in his lineup. And, yes, again note the +/-.
By The Numbers
2008-09 Shots
STL Forwards - 1788
VAN Forwards - 1644
2008-09 Assists
STL Forwards - 286
VAN Forwards - 292
2008-09 Goals
STL Forwards - 212
VAN Forwards - 206
2008-09 Points*
STL Forwards - 498
VAN Forwards - 498
(* no kidding, double check me if you'd like)
2008-09 Fights
STL Forwards - 51
VAN Forwards - 39
2008-09 PIMs
STL Forwards - 868
VAN Forwards - 723
2008-09 Blocked Shots
STL Forwards - 367
VAN Forwards - 427
2008-09 Giveaways
STL Forwards - 266
VAN Forwards - 318
2008-09 Takeaways
STL Forwards - 355
VAN Forwards - 384
2008-09 Hits*
STL Forwards - 1,102
VAN Forwards - 735
(* for the record, Backes leads the Blues and the Holy Bernier leads Vancouver)
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Nice Job
Im sure youtube has a video of the kid line tearing apart the Canucks… I’ll find it if you want to add it
Na, I have it ingrained in my memory. They really were on fire that night, definitely the difference maker.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Those guys must have put up some absurd minus numbers in the first half then..as in bad enough that they never got out of the minus category even after a great second half.
Yeah the +/- numbers weren’t what you would call good. At all. Without looking it up, I can tell you that Boyes’ first have minus was almost vomit-inducing, but he did pot a bunch of PP goals, so we let it slide. Which brings me to another point…over 31 percent of Blues forward goals came on the power play. And with their shutdown penalty kill, it’s fairly obvious to see where most opponent goals came from — even-strength.
The Kid Line has done well preventing goals almost entirely due to its tenacious forecheck and shift-long puck possession game. The McCromSteen line usually takes the ice against the opponent’s best offensive line (so really, I can deal with that -10 from them) and the Backes line…well, they’re our scorers and sometimes being asked to regularly score goals results in regularly allowing goals. That’s just the trade-off sometimes, I guess.
I once shot a man just to see him die...then I got distracted and missed it.
most of your opponents goals come from even-strength?
that’s where we seem to score most.
so, basically, the canucks need to stay out of the box.
this will be interesting, since we are one of the most penalized teams in the league.
you know how those rotten flamers like chanting "f*ck the canucks" because it rhymes?
well, it just so happens that "f*ck the flames" uses alliteration, for which more superior intellect is required compared to rhyme.
f*ck the flames, and GO CANUCKS GO!
Yeah. Without question the Canucks need to behave themselves. Not a bad thing anyway since that’ll help in the later rounds anyway but they definitely need to stay out of the box in the first round.
SOB should be on a short fucking leash.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, EVERY team scores the majority of their goals at even strength. That’s just how it is. But with a higher than average PP success rate, all those goals aren’t counting as pluses. And with the teams really good PK, a larger average of goals against are at even-strength, thus building a higher minus total. Ahh, the curse of having an effective special teams…it’s some kind of burden…
I once shot a man just to see him die...then I got distracted and missed it.
According to this post
href=“http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/4/14/834580/evaluating-the-playoff-teams-goal” target="new">Evaluating the playoff teams: Goal Differential,
The Blues rank second last among playoff teams in even strength goal differential. Vancouver ranks 6th. Furthermore, from
When Playoff Teams Face Each Other
We can see that the Blues didn’t fare very well against other playoff teams. In fact they are tied with Calgary as the worst Western Conference team against other playoff teams. The Blues are also second last in goal differential against playoff teams at -.39 per game. Vancouver ranks 3rd in the West at +.05.
Nice work! This is something to rally behind! :)
by Sean Zandberg on Apr 14, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
First Line: Andy McDonald, David Backes, Brad Boyes
Second Line: David Perron, Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie
Third Line: Alex Steen, Jay McClement, B.J. Crombeen
Fourth Line: Brad Winchester, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Hinote
from yahoo sports in team report section
Well hell if that’s true my 3rd and 4th lines are all messed up. I’m waiting for a SLGT lad or lass to chime in.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
AM doesnt really believe in lines
but thats pretty much the starting lineup, but you are likely to see tkachuk move around and hinote play less at even strength.
There's a reason why we call Andy Murray "The Green Goblin".
Actually, it’s because he looks like Willem Dafoe.
But. Early in the season he didn’t really seem to give a rat’s ass who went where as far as lines and defensive pairings were concerned. I’m sure the injuries had something to do with it, but some of the moves had MANY of us looking odd looks and scratching our heads. (Considering I’m mostly Irish, this is a hard task for me considering our large head size, but I did it anyway.)
Since about late February, he’s pretty much gone with what Canuck Junkie spilled out here. And it’s worked. And it’s given the Blues another reason to look back at Paul Kariya and say . . . y’know what? I’m not sure you’re needed right now.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
You’re forgetting the possible addition of Kariya. Any SLGT have any idea of where he would slot and who he would knock out of the lineup?
by Beantown Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 2:52 PM PDT reply actions
I’m not forgetting him, I’m ignoring him. He won’t be part of the first two games so the focus is on who we know will be there.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right to ignore him.
I’m not sure he’ll be part of the first round, or the whole playoffs if the Blues were to move on.
Not that us Blues fans don’t want to see him, but they’ve gone with pretty much the same lineup for the last month or so and . . . it’s kinda worked and stuff.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
that will change if they lose a couple games in a row and /or fall behind in this or another series.
by Sean Zandberg on Apr 14, 2009 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
True.
But hopefully it doesn’t come to that. (wink wink, nudge nudge)
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
it doesn’t seem likely he’ll get thrown in the lineup just because of who he is. it’s been reported that he’s been skating but isn’t practicing with the team in Vancouver, and won’t be joining the team at least until they come back home for games 3 & 4. I’m sure it’ll be a whole practice day before joining the line-up…and that’s if he seems to be meshing with the chemistry. quite a bit has changed since he got injured in November.
our lines have survived the Murray mix-and-match and have consistantly been as Canuck Junkie posted above for about a month now.
if Kariya enters the line up, this is how I predict the lines to be:
Brad Boyes – David Backes – Andy McDonald
David Perron – Patrik Berglund – Paul Kariya
B.J. Crombeen – Jay McClement – T.J. Oshie
Brad Winchester – Keith Tkachuk – Alex Steen
but don’t take my word for it. there’s no telling what Coach Murray will do with the lines
"I'm sorry we hurt their feelings"
-Barret Jackman
Great post!
Kariya, if/when healthy would probably take one of Winchester, Crombeen or Hinote’s spots, and share a line with Boyes and either McDonald or Backes. Boyes scored 43 goals last season, Kariya assisted on most of them.
Off to read the other “Know Your Enemy’s”.
St. Louis Game TIme
by Marcus E Pettersson on Apr 14, 2009 4:14 PM PDT reply actions
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