A Canucks Deadline Idea: We'd Like A Third Line Again Please
There's that smell in the air. It only comes around once a season and its only equivalent is the bedlam around early July.
But for one day we all get to pretend (pray?) that the GM who runs the team we live and breath on doesn't shoot himself in the face trying to land the best deal.
Some teams - Sharks, Wings, maybe the Bruins to a lesser extent - probably don't need to do anything besides find a spare mortal in case of injuries. Others - the Avs, Isles, Sens and Leafs - will start their dismantling now.
Your Canucks are right there in the middle. You could make an argument that they could do nothing. But if you think this team right now has what it takes to lift the Cup in a few months, I'd argue you're wrong and haven't seen, as proof, their last three hockey games.
In the last three there have been cases where Vancouver played almost like they didn't know what to do with a lead (Sens), played down to the level of their competition (Leafs) or decided not to show up at all (Habs). If you're nice, you could fault the emotional element in Toronto, the fatigue factor of a long trip, Halak and Toskala playing out of their minds, the refs, etc. But that blame game gets really old right quick.
It's not fun, but don't forget that this is the same team that stumbled a bit out of the gate, had a respectable run until Luongo's injury, essentially played .500 without their captain and spent all of February making up for the losing streak sins of January. So let's call it as it is: the Canucks are good, not great. Period. No different then most playoff caliber NHL teams. But name the last time just a good (not great) team got to hang with Lord Stanley for the summer? And even if you could, there's not a chance in hell a good team is going to survive against the likes of the top two great teams in the West.
There is no single deadline move that Vancouver can make to change their fortunes, but if you examine the team's weakness (besides their abhorrent PK and laughable PP) one thing jumps off the page: that third line.
Try it with me:
Is Vancouver fine in net? That's almost too stupid to bother asking unless you're this kid.
Is Vancouver fine on defense? Cautiously sure. Salo is always one step away from snapping all 206 bones in his body. Ohlund's having an off year and Edler is still prone to some sophomore errors that makes the vomit jump up in the back of your throat. But Mitchell is still a rock, Bieksa is scoring regularly and O'Brien has calmed down his PIM race. Collectively perhaps they could use some insurance at the deadline but everyone wants a puck-moving defenseman. I don't think their lack of a top tier one is their greatest weakness.
Is Vancouver fine on offense? It's sad that in a year when they are scoring so much more than last year that offense, yes, remains a problem. As always it comes down to consistency.
The Sedins are fairly consistent but always lack that third linemate. Kesler and Burrows are having career years but should we expect that to continue and, if so, for how long? Demitra runs hot and cold with the best of 'em. Sundin too. And sadly I just described the top six.
Looking down the charts gets mighty ugly: Wellwood is back to being thoroughly unreliable, Bernier (who is having a career season mind you) hasn't scored in damn near a month and Taylor Pyatt is on pace to maybe crack 20 points. Maybe. Now add Raymond in, a guy who hasn't scored since December and has bounced around every line as well as the press box and soon, if Vigneault gets angry enough, he'll be rocking a sushi stand at GM Place. And while it seems unfair to criticize the fourth line guys, please note that Johnson is well off the mark from his 18 points last season.
When Vigneault dismantled the third line it had unexpected results the likes of which no one thought of. But now the biggest weakness I see is restoring that third line. If Kes and Burrows cool off, or if Vancouver makes the playoffs and needs their true shutdown line back to deal with the Thorntons and Iginlas of the world, holes will start appearing all over the place. Better to have some guys who can help offensively, accept a third line role if needed or can step up if AV needs Kes/Burrows back in shutdown mode.
Or, to look at it yet another way, let's break out the erasers and fix the mistakes of the past.
That starts with evicting the current squatters on that line and my vote would go to Wellwood and/or Pyatt. I'm a reluctant Bernier supporter despite all his cons. He's still young and my hope is he just needs to settle in more (both on the team and in one geographic location). Besides that, even if he's not scoring he's still a brute (unlike Pudge), not brittle (unlike Pyatt) and can drop the gloves or cause havoc in front of the net if cattle prodded correctly.
So, let's assume Pudge takes a seat and Pyatt finds himself playing on another team. Gillis could target one or two guys that can play first or second line minutes or can be used as spare weapons on the third when the first two lines fall asleep.
Looking at TFP's list, the guys who leap off the page to me are Upshall, Hejduk and Knuble. Hejduk is expensive and a pipe dream, but my oh my would he look good with the Sedins (and I hate saying that because every time you do that person inevitably looks terrible with them). Hell so would Tkachuk for that matter and I am allowed to say that now because Gillis and JD have manhugged.
Knuble is in Demo land with his age, but his point production is in the mid -50's for the past couple of seasons. Another guy who could probably play anywhere AV needs him and brings some veteran experience as well.
And then there's Upshall who has a bit of Bernier in him in terms of age and production. He can also play either wing and muck around in the corners. A clear upgrade to Pyatt with the exception of them blue eyes, but not a first line type player either.
Probably none of this will happen, but it's fun to play around with. For Vancouver to make this post season relevant first they'll need to actually make it and they'll be helped greatly in that pursuit by dropping some dead weight and stocking the cabinet with proven players (and ideally ones that can hang around for next year).
That dead weight is upfront and screams to have something done to the unemployment line. It's been a fun ride while it lasted Pudge and Pyatt, but there'll be no tears shed if you find youself in another time zone next Wednesday afternoon.
And if you think I'm wrong, put your ideas here to enter our deadline contest. But please note: I'm never ever wrong.
OK, maybe that one time...
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Comments
The only way Upshall or Knuble comes your way is if the Canucks have something to give up on the defensive end. The Flyers are very happy with their forwards as they currently stand and the only way I can see them giving something up is for a strong, physical top-4 defenseman. So who you got?
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by Travis Hughes on Feb 26, 2009 11:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
For the love of God, take Salo. He’s always healthy and never, ever misses the net on the PP.
Yeah, I don’t know how accurate the list from TFP is. And we sadly don’t have defensemen to burn anymore, but I’d part with Salo or possibly Bieksa depending on the return. Then there’s Ohlund who’s a legit top 4 guy but he has a NTC.
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by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hey, we could always give the Flyers Nolan Baumgartner back!
Oh, I would love to see Knuble play here…..
by Sean Zandberg on Feb 26, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just say no to Knuble. He is slow and a eastern conference phenom. Might as well dress Pyatt in his jersey and save everyone the troubles.
by Nuckels on Feb 26, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Though Travis may have a point. Perhaps using TFP’s list wasn’t the best source. If anyone has another let me know.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
TFP’s list might in fact be accurate. The Flyers would give up Knuble or Upshall (you could probably include Lupul too, but it’d have to be for the right guy on defense. I don’t think the Canucks have that guy.
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by Travis Hughes on Feb 26, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not even Ohlund (which is probably hypothetical)? I think you’d move any of the three for him, though a straight up deal seems like a steal for the Flyers.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except Gillis has said he won’t trade a player with an NTC. Which I think is because he’s, among other things, going to use the NTC as a bargaining chip with the Sedins.
I really don’t think they’re trading for a top 6 guy unless it’s a steal of a deal. I.e. UFA economic salary dump for a team to try to work their books.
by rsm on Feb 26, 2009 5:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gillis can say what he wants but if he knows Ohlund is leaving and can get a top guy for him, he’d be derelict of duty if he didn’t ask him it waive it. And there are teams up against the cap so Gillis has that wiggle room too.
Anything But Antropov (ABA). I stand by it.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not if he wants to use NTCs to keep his cap numbers down w.r.t. the cap probably shrinking.
It is also not dereliction of duty to stick by a contract. It’s dereliction to hand NTC out if you think you may have to trade the player. Consider the simple math: [(Salary (+bonuses) + NTC + whatever) * contract length = what the player is being paid to play. Cap hit = Salary + bonuses].
Now you’re asking the player to pay you back the NTC portion of the contract? The guy took a pay cut to get that in his contract. Are you paying that money back? What is it valued at? What is it worth to the GM? With the right kind of player the NTC is a good bargaining chip, it’s value may actually be 500k-1m+/year in some cases (Sundin’s old Toronto discount for example), but to be able to get the most out of the NTC, you need to show that you stick by it. If not the agent, an asshole, is going to say ‘yeah, and so what, you traded regardless – it’s only worth X/2-3’ and the best comeback the GM will have is: ‘but these guys are different’.
If say the player made an approach to the GM about waving the NTC it’s a different issue. Or say the player had a short-list of teams in the NTC.
As for trading Ohlund specifically… don’t think you can do that if you have playoff aspirations. With him out, an injury on the D and you’re down to what? Playing O’Brien, Nycholat or Davidson on your second D pairing. Funny.
by rsm on Feb 26, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If say the player made an approach to the GM about waving the NTC it’s a different issue. Or say the player had a short-list of teams in the NTC.
I’d assume this part has probably already been done, just not spoken about. That’s all I’m asking for.
But I’d still say it’s derelict of duty if you (a) know you can’t resign him, (b) he has an NTC and © the deadline is in five days. Gillis didn’t ink that contract, he inherited it (in fact we have no idea what Gillis thinks about NTC’s now that he’s on the other side of the table). You bring up good points I didn’t think about re: the money involved with the NTC on the contract. All I’m saying is at least ask Ohlund if he will; if he doesn’t, fine, he walks at the end of the year. But if all signs point to losing him, then asking him to waive it or provide a list of teams is in the best interest of the organization at a crucial time and that’s his job.
The defense is deeper than the forward lines. If Ohlund is gone, you’re left with Mitchell and Edler, Bieksa and Salo, O’Brien and probably Davidson unless Nycholat stops coughing the puck up. But the mere fact you have options between him and Davison says something. Let’s pretend a Sedin goes down, Demitra gets another hangnail or Sundin pulls his almighty groin, who is moving up then? Pudge? Pyatt? That’s awful.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Gillis interview transcript you posted the other day had the ‘official’ Gills view on NTCs. Which was ‘no trading players with NTCs’ which is, in part, what I’m basing that assessment on.
I suppose you could argue, and you do, that it would be a dereliction not to ask the player. I have to disagree, but it’s partially a function of ethics at that point, although I do think the economic incentives vs. long term cap space management, and in reputation management (for attracting FAs) the handling of NTC players is helpful – to what extent is happily open for debate.
There is a player side to this that supports your argument quite well: If Ohlund really doesn’t want to leave or has a strong desire to stay in Vancouver then he should be aware of the financial side of this i.e. Cap space, prospect situation etc. – and he should know how big a discount he needs to take to stay.
On the other hand if he’s looking for a big payday he needs one thing: A deep, good run in the playoffs, with the Canucks or with a major contender. In which case he doesn’t waive his NTC if he thinks the Canucks can do well, or he takes a trade to one of those teams and has approached Gillis about it already. A wildcard would be his family situation – I don’t know, none of my business, but it does figure into the discount he’s willing to take and/or the willingness to waive the NTC.
As for inheriting a contract, I think that gives you an opening to ask, I don’t know if it justifies asking. That is getting into a different discussion though.
The defense is deeper than the forward lines. If Ohlund is gone, you’re left with Mitchell and Edler, Bieksa and Salo, O’Brien and probably Davidson unless Nycholat stops coughing the puck up.
Yepp, sort of. You have two top pairings (without Ohlund). Edler, Bieksa, Salo and Mitchell. In or before the playoffs you’re breaking one of the players (66% of all polled Canucks fans say Salo). And you’re down to O’Brien or Davidson on the second pairing and then you’re not a happy camper. I think the depth right now is ok. Without Ohlund there isn’t any real depth in case of injuries for a playoff run, you’d probably do ok for any given regular season though. There are bodies to throw in the mix, just nothing to step it up for the playoffs.
Let’s pretend a Sedin goes down, Demitra gets another hangnail or Sundin pulls his almighty groin, who is moving up then? Pudge? Pyatt? That’s awful.
Yepp, that is awful. I think we could use forward depth, I just don’t see trading D for O being helpful.
On the note that if one of those go down, what you probably do is get Krog or Oullet up from Manitoba on emergency callup (no waivers – not sure how waivers work post-deadline in other instances, all I saw was that Clemmensen (NJ) can come back up without going through waivers after the deadline, so you might be able to do a straight callup afterwards). On the other hand if one or more of your top-six go down and you’re not very, very deep at forward (most teams aren’t much deeper than the Canucks) you’re hoping that someone steps up.
I think we have the players who can step up, but you just kind of hope they actually can manage to outplay their contracts on the third line against soft opposition rather than have to play against the top lines.
by rsm on Feb 26, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Gillis interview transcript you posted the other day had the ‘official’ Gills view on NTCs. Which was ‘no trading players with NTCs’ which is, in part, what I’m basing that assessment on
. I think it’s fair to say that Gillis will stand by his word. He’s an honest guy.
I’m not going to get bitter about losing Ohlund in the summer and getting nothing in return. He’s a vital cog to our machine, and I don’t want to lose him this late in the season. Let’s keep the chemistry intact. Let’s allow Ohlund to haul ass in the final year of his contract with US rather than flog him.
I want to make a list of players that were in the final year of their contracts playing for a team in the playoffs and overachieving because of it to raise their value (Malone, Pisani, Umberger come to mind). It benefits us as we charge for a Cup. After all, we are “going for it” now, aren’t we? Yes we are!
by Sean Zandberg on Feb 26, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lupul doesnt belong in the NHL, and you can only hope that your Flyers can unlod him and that horrific contract on some other team.
Bieksa is cut from the Philly mold, tough, fast and pissed off most of the time. Vancouver will trade him, cause he is gonna be an amazing leader, and we always trade the heart and soul types.
by Nuckels on Feb 26, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of 3rd liners…does anyone else think Matt Cooke would look good on our 3rd line now?
Oh right..he’s overpaid
Nuckers: I still support trading heart and soul Linden years ago. Look at all we got back in return.
Do you need a positivity pill?
by Sean Zandberg on Feb 26, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked Cookie, he didnt get along with AV though. He’s thrivin on Pittsburgh though, the Pens would be mad to trade him with them in the middle of a playoff race.
Linden got run out of town by Iron mike. Wasnt much of a choice but to trade him, but it was a great trade for sure. Ended up turnin into Sedin and Luongo.
As for a positivity pill, i’ll pass :) I’m on board for life as a Nucks fan. There simply is no turnin back for me. Lately though, i’ve been tryin to separate my fanatacism and logic. As you’ve noticed, I am a little disenchanted with Lou.
by Nuckels on Feb 26, 2009 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stajan
is probably available. He’d be a good 3rd line centre with Burrows and whomever…
by Karina on Feb 26, 2009 3:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll take Stajan over Wellwood any day.
by Sean Zandberg on Feb 26, 2009 4:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stajan would be a sweet pickup. He would cost a lot though, young with good numbers for a few years. TO is stupid to trade away his types. It would cost us Raymond and a pick i’m thinkin.
by Nuckels on Feb 26, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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