Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?
by Yankee Canuck on Nov 29, 2009 7:43 AM PST
in Game Preview
Email
Print
Update: The Canucks will ice the the same roster as last night because it's working. The Sharks will get Rob Blake and Devon Setoguchi back into their lineup tonight. Oh. Gee. Great.
********************
I've missed the past two games but, from what I can gather, the guys have figured out how to score again. Small miracles indeed.
It reminds me of earlier this month when the Canucks lost three straight to Dallas, St. Louis and Detroit and only scored a goal per game. Then they blew up on Colorado 8-2. Now, get shutout by the Hawks? Do some fine tuning on LA before putting the hurt on - where it rightly belongs - Edmonton.
And along comes San Jose to pee in the pool. Maybe. Who knows. These guys may.
The Sharks took three of four meetings last year, are currently the best team in hockey, have scored the most goals, have the best PK, Thornton leads the league in points and Heatley is tied for second in goals. Imagine how good they'd look if they had Blastoff as yet another weapon?
Speaking of that offseason trade that helped both the Sharks and Canucks, Jordan Schroeder is outscoring Patrick White. Seriously.
A convincing win over San Jose would help settle some fears that Vancouver is nothing more than a .500 team that can't hang with the big guys. Obviously it won't be easy, but hey, here's a tip all the way from across the pond:
Several populations of skilled orcas around the world have learned how to overcome sharks using a combination of superior brain power and brute force.
Sounds about right. It was only a matter of time before AV took lessons from mother nature anyway.
Go Canucks.
69 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
isn’t it nice when Mother Nature supports our cause?
here’s a couple tidbits i noticed when taking a look at things this morning:
-Sid the Kid: 30 points. Alexander the “Great”: 29 points. Henrik Sedin: 28 points. I find that rather interesting…..
-Now, some comparisons against the Sharks:
We are 10-3-0 at home. The Sharks are 10-5-2 on the road.
We are 6-4-0 in our last 10 games. They are 6-2-2.
Our collective score in our last 5 games is 24-9. Theirs is 19-20.
Our GAA is 2.56, theirs is 2.59.
Our GFA is 3.04, theirs is 3.30.
Our PP% is 25.8 (2nd in the league!). Theirs is 24.3 (3rd in the league).
Our PK% is 77.3 (22nd in league). Theirs is a league-leading 85.9. Comparing that to the powerplays, we are so screwed!
I’d say that we are pretty evenly matched up tonight. Although special teams support the Sharks, our current hot streak might be able to counteract it.
So, for my prediction, being so good with numbers, I’m trying a mathematical approach to predicting a score. Based on our GAAs, GFAs, PPs, PKs and current scoring streaks, I calculated an expected score of 3.72 – 2.95 for the Canucks. (don’t try to get me to explain this, my approach was consistently varying due to coming up with more factors that would affect the score)
4-3 Canucks, and I’m still going with Kesler for the winner.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
by missy on Nov 29, 2009 9:42 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
All I know is I’m not placing any bets on the league awarding Vancouver 3.72 goals…
Seriously though, some good considerations there. I’m a little shocked that our PK is that terrible. Who’s out there most nights? Kesler-Burrows-Mitchell-Bieksa-Lou??? Seems like it should be a solid PK on paper!
...loving life for Christ's glory...
well, if you look at the number of goals we’ve allowed when the other team has had the powerplay in the last 5 games, we only allowed 2 last game and none the 2 games before
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Our averages are held up pretty high by our bad games, which can be downright awful. The rest of the time, we do OK. Dunno why the breakdowns on PK have occurred some nites, but they have, or at least, that’s my non-statistical, subjective impression.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
I expect a close game despite the B2B, probably more defense than offense. I’d be satisfied with a “loser point.”
3-2 Sharks in OT, Marleau with the GWG.
yeah, OT is a safe bet. when doing my calculations, i was getting a few 0.5-goal leads.
i may spend my day developing a score-predicting algorithm instead of doing homework…..
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
I was going to go with 3-2 Sharks as well but I will say 4-2 with an empty netter. Heater the GWG.
by Section 312 on Nov 29, 2009 10:16 AM PST reply actions
Benedict Arnolds! The big bad Sharks? Pffft. Read that Telegraph story Yank’ enlightened us with, even Great Whites fear the mighty Orca!
Like a LOT of teams over the years, I expect they may have found themselves catching a touch of the “Roxy Flu”, in which some are known to partake.
Coaches around the league have spent time and money working on a vaccine, but are being rebuffed by the flu’s strong “cougar” virulency.
Not just the Roxy of course…but I am betting they had some fun on their night off last night.
I love that missy i using her brain power for hockey good rather than just marks…a score predicting equation?
Awesome.
I am saying Luongo is pissed about those two goals he feels he could have had last night.
3-1 Canucks, with Salo getting the GWG on the PP and the clincher an EN goal.
The earliest use of the word with the spelling we recognize today is found in "L'Acadie: or Seven Years' Exploration in British America" by James Edward Alexander, published in 1849:
We also met a lusty fellow in a forest road with a keg of whisky slung round him who called to us 'Come boys and have some grog, I'm what you call a canuck"
Ok, I updated the score predicting wizards list. Several peeps had Daniel scoring the winner last night! Ah that was good times.
The Canucks are 2-2 in back-to-back games this season. Both wins came at home. Fuck the Sharks. 4-3 Canucks. Burrows with the winner.
i already have 4-3 canucks up there sean (unless you’re allowed to put the same score with just a different player for gwg). read the last line of my talk there.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
oh ok.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Thanks for the comparative stats btw. It points to doom, but I’m trying to stay positive regardless.
by Sean Zandberg on Nov 29, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
If I did my calcs right – remember, I said if! – then it takes about 3.7 penalties to cost us a goal, but it takes more like 7 to cost SJ a goal. That’s my one big area of concern, statistically, for tonite.
Mind you, it also says that a single PP goal or kill could easily swing the outcome. Hope springs eternal.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
that’s not too hard to calculate, you just divide the number of normal penalty kills that a team has had to kill by the number of goals given up on the pk
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Yeah, I know it’s easy … just like remembering where I left the tv remote. Only a complete schmuck would put it in the fridge, for example. Numerous other examples may also apply.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
Your wife locks the fridge on you too, then?
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
At least you’re guaranteed to go back there soon enough and find out where you misplaced it, unlike some of the places remotes seem to end up…
...loving life for Christ's glory...
Quick Work-related Story
Part of my job includes cleaning carpets and furniture in residential homes and commercial buildings. Often when I clean furniture, I’ll find remote controls buried deep in the couch chasms! Not to mention money, food, clothing… and a whole host of other disgusting things that no one really needs to hear, I’m sure.
I’ve found remotes and upon handing them back to the owner, they’ve said “Holy crap, I lost that thing a long time ago and thought it was long gone!”. Pretty funny stuff.
Still don’t know why they haven’t come up with a pager system between a remote and a TV, especially with newer ones that basically require you to have a remote to operate the menus.
Just press a little button on the TV, and the remote screams at you. Simple!
...loving life for Christ's glory...
they can also pick the same game winner scorer.
by Sean Zandberg on Nov 29, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions
4-2 Canucks, Bernier with the GWG.
Hey Missy,
How did you select the inputs for your equation, i.e. the factors that you calculate with, your independent variables? Guess and golly? Some sort of principle components analysis? Bayesian? Just curious. Not my field, but it’s still of interest.
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
i’m working on a method right now. i was combining goals for and against, powerplay and penalty kill successes and failures, and the average amount of goals scored for and against in the last 5 games. i was losing myself a couple times….
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Cool. I’ve always wanted to have the time to play w/that sort of stuff, not just for the fun of predicting sports but cuz it could be applied to so many other walks of life too. One day, maybe. Keep up the good work and keep us informed!
The opposite of serious is not funny; the opposite of serious is unserious.
it may seem like it, but if you think about it, it gives a better estimate of a team’s current strengths on even-strengh, powerplay and penalty kill.
for example, philadelphia may have the 5th-best powerplay percentage in the league right now, but they’ve only had 2 powerplay goals in 5 games.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
i should probably also mention that those 5 games philly had with only 2 powerplay goals also had a total of 23 powerplay opportunities, which gives about 8% on their powerplay in 5 games.
neither new jersey nor philly play again until our games with them, so their numbers are already analyzable.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Further
to my point below, this would indicate to me that Philly’s PP is due to get back on track, not necessarily in the next game, but the longer their short term rates fall well below their long term averages, the more likely the future correction is.
yes, i see what you’re saying. i understand that philly could suddenly turn it around (they do have a few days off right now, so it’s very possible). however, keep in mind that i’m just doing this analysis to predict a score. i know there’s stuff that past numbers can’t predict. however, with a 5-game span, it is possible to see how a team is doing right at that moment, rather than so far this season. for example, if a team suddenly gets hot or cold, how can overall season numbers be an accurate judge of their current play?
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
That's why
I like the deviation from norm method.
Comparing the season average vs the short term trend average would give an indication of which direction the next short term trend might be most likely to go.
However that still won’t predict any individual game, nothing will that I know of.
well, i’m just giving this a try. out of most likelihood, (also considering how i’m just a second-year university student that hasn’t taken enough statistics courses and doesn’t have a good enough understanding of the probability involved in predicting scores of game) all my predictions with this method will go quite bad.
however, i’m already noticing that it can help me know more about the teams we play (it can lead into questioning the reasons why a team is playing like this, such as injuries or line-juggling), which is my overall goal this season.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Oh for sure
like I said, any method’s as good as any other when it comes to predicting scores of games. If there were any analytical way to accurately predict scores consistently, gambling on them probably wouldn’t exist.
Nice to see a young woman who’s interested in more than Twilight.
/thinks of niece, shakes head
I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.
truth be told, i have no interest in those books whatsoever. for me, it’s NHL hockey.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
I had never even heard of twilight/new moon
until about two weeks ago when a girl who works for me said she couldn’t wait to see it. I was like “Uh? what’s that?”
I’ve never seen such a look of utter disbelief on a human being before!
well, since i’m just 19, all my friends are obsessed with it.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
yes, my entire age group is captivated. even some of the guys.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Just mention Robert Pattinson or Tyler Lautner and my niece gets all googly-eyed.
Yeah, I know their names. Keeping up on popular culture is how you keep one step ahead.
I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.
I’m not sure that Twilight counts as culture…
...loving life for Christ's glory...
by NebCanuck on Nov 29, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Often though
current short term trends (particularly those which display a significant deviation from the norm) aren’t so much predictors of future continuation as they are predictors of future correction towards longer term averages.
3-1 Canucks in a good old-fashioned Vignault snorefest. Lou with 30 saves and first star. Do I get bonus points for saying Mitchell gets the GWG and getting it right?
I didn’t even know that you were racking up points for predictions. Guess I pay more attention to the game thread than the pre-game…
...loving life for Christ's glory...
Do I get bonus points for saying Mitchell gets the GWG and getting it right?
No. You get my foot in your ass. -Red Foreman
by Sean Zandberg on Nov 29, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
great show.
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
still no word on twitter for confirmation, but on that depth chart they have on canucks.com for showing the game’s lineups, they have rypper back in there instead of hordichuk….
i mean no harm. i come in peace. unlike shane o'brien or kevin bieksa........
watch out for the Rypper too, he can whip anyone.......
GO CANUCKS GO!
Awesome.
There ain't no turning back when our train is off its track, and there's nothing we can do but watch it crash (watch it crash)
And there ain't no right and wrong when we know it won't be long, and there's nothing we can do but watch it crash
-Tomas Kalnoky/Streetlight Manifesto, Watch It Crash
by kentcheesehead on Nov 29, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
I can’t remember a Grey Cup that has out and out sucked. Maybe it doesn’t have the star power (and the hype) the Super Bowl does, but I’ll take the Grey Cup everytime. Plus, we don’t have to number it, either.
I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.
If we did…this one was XMVII
The earliest use of the word with the spelling we recognize today is found in "L'Acadie: or Seven Years' Exploration in British America" by James Edward Alexander, published in 1849:
We also met a lusty fellow in a forest road with a keg of whisky slung round him who called to us 'Come boys and have some grog, I'm what you call a canuck"
o shit…last minute in Canadian football is more exciting than a whole NFL game sometimes…
I mean…that Redskins / Browns game this year was hilarious…9-6 or something like that (?)
The earliest use of the word with the spelling we recognize today is found in "L'Acadie: or Seven Years' Exploration in British America" by James Edward Alexander, published in 1849:
We also met a lusty fellow in a forest road with a keg of whisky slung round him who called to us 'Come boys and have some grog, I'm what you call a canuck"
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Nucks Misconduct Store
Your clothing sucks. Go fix it.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
